Turn Off Ads?

View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

Voters
146. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yonder Alonso

    102 69.86%
  • Zack Cozart

    0 0%
  • Juan Francisco

    18 12.33%
  • Todd Frazier

    3 2.05%
  • Chris Heisey

    4 2.74%
  • Mike Leake

    9 6.16%
  • Yorman Rodriguez

    8 5.48%
  • Travis Wood

    2 1.37%
  • Other - name him

    0 0%
Page 4 of 6 FirstFirst 123456 LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 83

Thread: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

  1. #46
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,852

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    JF does hit the ball extremely hard, which could result in higher than normal BABIP numbers. Not sure how high. He also uses the whole field well, as apparently does Alonso.
    Albert Pujols has a career BABIP of .315. No one hits the ball harder than that guy. To expect anything higher from a non speed burner is silly. Francisco hits the ball harder, but he isn't hitting it harder than everyone else is. His rates he showed in both AAA and Cincinnati are incredibly high and will be cut by 30-50% over anything resembling a decent sample size.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #47
    Member klw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    6,043

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Pujols has a career BA of .334 but his career BABIP is only .315. Is the higher BA because the BABIP does not reflect balls hit for homers?

  4. #48
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,852

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Pujols has a career BA of .334 but his career BABIP is only .315. Is the higher BA because the BABIP does not reflect balls hit for homers?
    His BA is high because of the amount of contact he makes (only strikes out 9.3% of the time he steps to the plate) and the power he has. But its mostly tied to his contact rate. BABIP doesn't count HR's either, so the more you hit the less BABIP plays with your average, but still, 40 HR's only account for about 20-25% of a players total number of hits.

    On second thought I misunderstood your question. Yes, his AVG being higher than his BABIP is because of the home runs not counting as hits in BABIP. BABIP is calculated at (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF).

  5. #49
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,475

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Albert Pujols has a career BABIP of .315. No one hits the ball harder than that guy. To expect anything higher from a non speed burner is silly. Francisco hits the ball harder, but he isn't hitting it harder than everyone else is. His rates he showed in both AAA and Cincinnati are incredibly high and will be cut by 30-50% over anything resembling a decent sample size.
    Actually, Pujols has a career LD% of 19.5 - not much more than average. When he does hit it hard, he really hits it hard. But he doesn't hit it as hard as frequently as it seems.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  6. #50
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,852

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Actually, Pujols has a career LD% of 19.5 - not much more than average. When he does hit it hard, he really hits it hard. But he doesn't hit it as hard as frequently as it seems.
    Not many guys carry a line drive rate all that much higher than that over a long haul though. I think the overall point remains the same though, no matter how hard you do hit the ball, you aren't expected to have a BABIP in a given season over .315-.320 unless you are a plus runner.

  7. #51
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    I'm planning on adding guys like Boxberger, Soto, Valaika, Mesoraco, Sulbaran, Fairel, Silva, Johnson, Tuttle, Maloney, and Duran to the next poll. Feel free to add some more names.

  8. #52
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,493

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Dorn, Smith? Viola, if he still counts.

  9. #53
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    8,811

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    I think JF is (or will be) Wily Mo offensively. Not a bad player, but nothing to get too excited about either.

    If JF is our 2nd best prospect (or even 3rd), then I'm disappointed.

  10. #54
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,852

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I think JF is (or will be) Wily Mo offensively. Not a bad player, but nothing to get too excited about either.

    If JF is our 2nd best prospect (or even 3rd), then I'm disappointed.
    He isn't anywhere but maybe here on Redszone, although I fully expect most of the Alonso voters to swing their vote to Frazier/Leake.

  11. #55
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,175

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He isn't anywhere but maybe here on Redszone, although I fully expect most of the Alonso voters to swing their vote to Frazier/Leake.

    No electioneering.

  12. #56
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,059

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    although I fully expect most of the Alonso voters to swing their vote to Frazier/Leake
    Me too. Even though Leake hasn't thrown a pitch professionally.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  13. #57
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,175

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Me too. Even though Leake hasn't thrown a pitch professionally.
    It's a question of how you view these things. Many of these guys, like Francisco, are quite young.

    If you have a fairly static view of things - a guy's stats are a guy's stats and will likely always be his stats - then you probably vote for Frazier or Leake. They have the polish, perhaps the more consistent numbers with fewer negatives.

    If you take a more dynamic view - take a young player like Francisco, look at his tremendous ability and factor in his age, also factor in what he showed at AAA and on the Reds and assume some growth - then you'd vote for him, as I will.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-15-2009 at 03:23 PM.

  14. #58
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    4,640

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I think JF is (or will be) Wily Mo offensively. Not a bad player, but nothing to get too excited about either.

    If JF is our 2nd best prospect (or even 3rd), then I'm disappointed.
    To each his own, but I have no trouble getting excited over a 22-year-old kid who has been at or right around the league lead in home runs and RBIs for three straight years at three different levels, and who has improved his OPS every time he has moved up. And that's not to mention the sensational numbers you'd get if you added up his totals from last year's winter league and this year's stops at Louisville and Cincinnati--the three highest levels he's played at.

  15. #59
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    4,640

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    We're saddled here with painfully small samples, so I thought I'd go ahead and combine Francisco's totals from last winter's Dominican League and this year's stops at Louisville and Cincinnati, his three highest levels.

    Dominican: 173 PA, 161 AB, 58 H, 12 HR, 107 TB, 12 BB, 37 RBI
    Louisville: 99 PA, 92 AB, 33 H, 5 HR, 55 TB, 4 BB, 19 RBI
    Cincinnati: 25 PA, 21 AB, 9 H, 1 HR, 13 TB, 3 BB, 7 RBI

    Totals: 297 PA, 274 AB, 100 H, 18 HR, 175 TB, 19 BB, 63 RBI

    That's a slash line of 365/401/639. An OPS of 1.040, with 63 RBIs, in essentially half a full season. Even if he were to tank over the other half of that season--which is in direct contrast to the pattern he's presenting--it would be a heckuva line for a kid of 22.

    I'm not saying he's Pujols or Fielder. I'm just saying there's a whole lot to like. Alonso may well prove to have a better package, but to this point, no other hitter in the system has shown me as much as Francisco.
    Last edited by mace; 10-15-2009 at 04:03 PM.

  16. #60
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,475

    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Not many guys carry a line drive rate all that much higher than that over a long haul though. I think the overall point remains the same though, no matter how hard you do hit the ball, you aren't expected to have a BABIP in a given season over .315-.320 unless you are a plus runner.
    I agree more guys carry a 19-20% LD than do not. However, since 2002, there are no fewer than 30-40 regulars that have carried at least 20%. Chipper Jones has a 22.7% in that time. Manny is over 22%. In a smaller period of time, Joe Mauer is 23.5%. It's not easy, but there are a decent amount of players that have done it.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25