Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

[Kc61]

[PHP]Extended Statistics
Year Age Tm PA AB ISOP BB% K% BABIP GB% LD% wOBA
2006 19 Rk GCL Reds 190 182 .127 3.2% 18.4% .333 48% 14% .306
2007 20 A Dayton 562 534 .195 4.1% 28.6% .336 51% 13% .319
2008 21 A+ Sarasota 541 516 .219 3.5% 22.7% .324 44% 21% .331
2009 22 AA Carolina 464 437 .220 4.3% 19.6% .312 44% 22% .342
2009 22 AAA Louisville 99 92 .239 4.0% 24.2% .444 48% 17% .406
2009 22 MLB Cincinnati 25 21 .190 12.0% 28.0% .615 64% 14% .496
[/PHP]

Those numbers don't indicate any real significant advancements too me. He tends to fluctuate between 3-4.5% BB rate and a 18-30% K rate. I say fluctuate because it's no gradual progression at least not forward.

Your numbers don't indicate progress because of your selection your stats and analysis. For example, look at JF's slugging percentage for the last few years, consider his age, and you'll see a very considerable talent and very considerable production.

Your conclusion on K rate doesn't tell the story -- JF's K rate has improved dramatically. It was down from 28.6 percent at Dayton to 19.6 percent at AA this year. The rates then became higher in short stints at AAA and Cinci at year end because it took him awhile (a short while) to adjust to each new level.

And on top of everything, once again, there is this static view of this player who has achieved remarkably for a 22 year old. And, unlike WMP, he is a left handed hitter giving him an advantage in most at bats against righty pitching.

[dougdirt]

The one thing that Cisco has going for him that doesn't show up in stats is that he crushes balls. He may hit a grounder that would be an out for Janish (for example) but his is a hit because it gets through the infield much faster. He makes contact that looks like a popfly and it ends up being a HR. The ones that get out or at least over an OF's head will increase power numbers but those laser beam singles don't. IMO, that's why he has and will have a higher than normal BABIP. When he puts a ball in play, it is harder for the defense to get to it.

It's not likely that anyone can maintain a BABIP like Cisco's at the Bats and Reds last season but he really doesn't need to to be productive. If he did maintain it, he's a first ballot Hall of Famer.

When Cisco got to Louisville he was at a pitcher's mercy if that pitcher could put a breaking ball down and in on him. When he left Louisville, he wasn't having trouble with that pitch. THAT is very telling. He's a kid with remarkable offensive tools that is learning how to put those tools to good use. And he's almost there. And he's my #2 pick.

While I agree that Francisco has that special kind of pop and he CAN hit the ball harder than others for the most part, he isn't a guy out there who is hitting the ball harder than the best guys in baseball. His BABIP is going to be in the .290-.325 range in the majors. Its not going to carry him like some seems to be suggesting it can.

[Mario-Rijo]

Your numbers don't indicate progress because of your selection your stats and analysis. For example, look at JF's slugging percentage for the last few years, consider his age, and you'll see a very considerable talent and very considerable production.

Sure he's talented and had very good production, no one is arguing that. But power alone does not make him major league material. Your suggestion that Juan will somehow hit for a high average at the major league level (and therefore due to his power will produce adequately or better) is an odd notion. Guys who are so talented at making contact and hitting bad balls don't strike out at that high a rate. Basically in a nutshell he'll hammer some pitches just like Wily Mo did, he may even have some nice games, etc. But frankly your theory about him only works if he continues to progress in swinging at less non ideal pitches, sews up any holes he may have (as GOYA suggested he did to some extent in Lou) etc.

Your conclusion on K rate doesn't tell the story -- JF's K rate has improved dramatically. It was down from 28.6 percent at Dayton to 19.6 percent at AA this year. The rates then became higher in short stints at AAA and Cinci at year end because it took him awhile (a short while) to adjust to each new level.

Ok fine I'll concede that he improved from Dayton to Carolina. I'll not concede that it was a foregone conclusion that he was simply adjusting to the new level as that info is inconclusive. At the MLB level he didn't K in his last 6 PA's of his 25, not conclusive.

And on top of everything, once again, there is this static view of this player who has achieved remarkably for a 22 year old. And, unlike WMP, he is a left handed hitter giving him an advantage in most at bats against righty pitching.

Not once again it just simply hasn't ever changed in my mind. If he had given me a reason to change my mind I would have. If this site has taught me anything it's that you cannot dismiss history and a players peripherals, they are usually a far more true indicator of the real player than most any tool we as fans have to get a reasonably general picture of what kind of player we have. Not his actual production, just too many variables in that type of stuff for a clear picture.

And too me he needs to improve quite a bit to just be similiar to a guy who I have compared him to since I watched him play in Dayton, Tony Batista. In the Majors he had a career 15.9 K% and a 5.8 BB% for a career line of .251/.299/.453/.752. Batista had a similiar approach and similiar power but with less K's and more BB's. This is a guy who had 4 seasons of 30+ HR's and 30+ doubles and 2 more seasons with at least 20+ dbls. and 25+ HR's. Again he'd have to improve a great deal to get to this point, a .750 OPS.

[GOYA]

he isn't a guy out there who is hitting the ball harder than the best guys in baseball.

Harder than the best guys in baseball? Why compare him to that? He crushes balls and you don't need to compare him with MLB all-stars to see that.

[dougdirt]

Harder than the best guys in baseball? Why compare him to that? He crushes balls and you don't need to compare him with MLB all-stars to see that.

Because his BABIP isn't going to be any higher than those guys, who are in the .300-.320 range. His grounders aren't going to find more holes than most other major leaguers and his flyballs aren't going to find the ground any more than other guys are.

[mdccclxix]

Welp, since I can't start a new thread (why not?), I thought I'd post this tid bit on our beloved Alonso here -
From Kevin Goldstein's chat at BP:

"NeilEdwards6 (Cincy): Any concerns about Yonder Alonso hitting left-hand pitching? Does he eventually supplant Votto at first?

Kevin Goldstein: I have a lot of concerns about Alonso. Add him to my over-hyped list, actually."


Discuss.

[REDblooded]

Welp, since I can't start a new thread (why not?), I thought I'd post this tid bit on our beloved Alonso here -
From Kevin Goldstein's chat at BP:

"NeilEdwards6 (Cincy): Any concerns about Yonder Alonso hitting left-hand pitching? Does he eventually supplant Votto at first?

Kevin Goldstein: I have a lot of concerns about Alonso. Add him to my over-hyped list, actually."


Discuss.

Silly? How is he "Over-hyped"? He's a top 3-7ish MILB 1b prospect... He'll probably end up a .280-.300 1b in the majors with 20-30 HR power and the ability to move risp... nobodies saying his ceiling is as a 45+ HR type of guy, or a .330 hitter... Shut up Goldstein.

[dougdirt]

I would love to see what Goldstein's actual concerns were rather than just saying he has a lot of them.