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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

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  • Danny Dorn

    3 2.24%
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    25 18.66%
  • Todd Frazier

    37 27.61%
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  • Mike Leake

    44 32.84%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

  1. #31
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    If Frazier had a definitive position, he might have an argument for #2. Since he does not, Leake's the no-brainer #2 for me.
    I have no problem with any of these votes, they are all subjective.

    But I don't see how Leake can be a no-brainer for this or any top spot on the list. Many think he was overdrafted. He hasn't pitched a single inning of minor league ball, unless you count two innings in the Arizona Fall League in which he allowed several baserunners. He isn't a prototype starting pitcher in terms of his build.

    I hope this guy is Greg Maddox. He was a terrific college pitcher until the CWS in which he had difficulties. I can see folks relying on his pedigree and voting for him as number two, I have no problem with that.

    But a no-brainer? Not quite yet.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    I have no problem with any of these votes, they are all subjective.

    But I don't see how Leake can be a no-brainer for this or any top spot on the list. Many think he was overdrafted. He hasn't pitched a single inning of minor league ball, unless you count two innings in the Arizona Fall League in which he allowed several baserunners. He isn't a prototype starting pitcher in terms of his build.

    I hope this guy is Greg Maddox. He was a terrific college pitcher until the CWS in which he had difficulties. I can see folks relying on his pedigree and voting for him as number two, I have no problem with that.

    But a no-brainer? Not quite yet.
    Could not agree more.

    I'm a huge Leake fan -- I was very happy with the Reds taking him. But given his arm problems at the end of the CWS and the fact he hasn't done anything in minor league ball yet, I'm not vaulting him past a bunch of guys who have played quite well for multiple seasons. To do so would be Baseball Americanitis, where predraft and draft pedigree is routinely given more weight than any other factor.
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  4. #33
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Could not agree more.

    I'm a huge Leake fan -- I was very happy with the Reds taking him. But given his arm problems at the end of the CWS and the fact he hasn't done anything in minor league ball yet, I'm not vaulting him past a bunch of guys who have played quite well for multiple seasons. To do so would be Baseball Americanitis, where predraft and draft pedigree is routinely given more weight than any other factor.
    Therein lies the biggest problem with these types of community lists. Some want to see results. Some want to see skills. Some use a little of both. It causes so much one way or another that the list isn't generally all that fluid. Frankly, I don't care too much about who has done what, its about what they will likely do. Some of that is based on what they have done, but Mike Leake isn't like projecting Yorman Rodriguez either. We know what he throws and he is both polished and old enough to have a strong feeling of what he could do. The fact that he hasn't done it as a pro so far doesn't really change that. It has nothing to do with where he was drafted. It has everything to do with why he was drafted there.

  5. #34
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Could not agree more.

    I'm a huge Leake fan -- I was very happy with the Reds taking him. But given his arm problems at the end of the CWS and the fact he hasn't done anything in minor league ball yet, I'm not vaulting him past a bunch of guys who have played quite well for multiple seasons. To do so would be Baseball Americanitis, where predraft and draft pedigree is routinely given more weight than any other factor.
    I have to agree, I went Frazier. While Frazier has no "clear cut" position, I see him being able to man 3rd, LF or 2nd at the major league level and at the very minimum an above average super-utility guy. The fact that he doesn't have a position yet speaks more about the organization than Frazier to me (at least up until this point). Frazier will probably be best used in the short-term as a utility player as we have phillips entrenched at second and now Rolen at 3rd. I see frazier starting in that role and taking over at 2nd in the future. His consistency with the bat and infield capability as well as his minor league track record gives him the nod over Leake at this time. I am a fan of Leake but he is no-sure thing. While he has a good arsenal of pitches he doesn't have stuff that blows people away. While I believe he will be a successful #3 type pitcher but I need to see how his "stuff" transfers over to the minors.
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  6. #35
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by tripleaaaron View Post
    I have to agree, I went Frazier. While Frazier has no "clear cut" position, I see him being able to man 3rd, LF or 2nd at the major league level and at the very minimum an above average super-utility guy. The fact that he doesn't have a position yet speaks more about the organization than Frazier to me (at least up until this point). Frazier will probably be best used in the short-term as a utility player as we have phillips entrenched at second and now Rolen at 3rd. I see frazier starting in that role and taking over at 2nd in the future. His consistency with the bat and infield capability as well as his minor league track record gives him the nod over Leake at this time. I am a fan of Leake but he is no-sure thing. While he has a good arsenal of pitches he doesn't have stuff that blows people away. While I believe he will be a successful #3 type pitcher but I need to see how his "stuff" transfers over to the minors.

    I think Frazier will be a plus to the roster and more so if he's a super utiltiy guy than if he's a flawed regular manning a single spot. I just happen to think his "tweenerness" hurts his overall value so I went with Leake here. When Leake is eligible to be dealt, he'll have more value than Frazier so he gets the nod from me.
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  7. #36
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Frazier will be a plus to the roster and more so if he's a super utiltiy guy than if he's a flawed regular manning a single spot. I just happen to think his "tweenerness" hurts his overall value so I went with Leake here. When Leake is eligible to be dealt, he'll have more value than Frazier so he gets the nod from me.
    What kind of bat do you expect Frazier to have in the majors? AVG/OBP/SLG. Where won't that bat be at least average at?

  8. #37
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    What kind of bat do you expect Frazier to have in the majors? AVG/OBP/SLG. Where won't that bat be at least average at?
    I'd expect him to typically be around.270/.340/.440 with a few years over .800 OPS thrown in. Good enough at MI and maybe 3B. I'd be more positive on him if he'd had time in actually having played 3B day in and day out. I hope the Reds let him do it in 2010. I like the idea of having him available to spot in at 2B and SS but I think his defense there is just not anything I'd want up the middle in the major leagues every day. I know 2B has moved to a more offensive position, but I detest the Todd Walker types there. Defense first up the middle.
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  9. #38
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'd expect him to typically be around.270/.340/.440 with a few years over .800 OPS thrown in. Good enough at MI and maybe 3B. I'd be more positive on him if he'd had time in actually having played 3B day in and day out. I hope the Reds let him do it in 2010. I like the idea of having him available to spot in at 2B and SS but I think his defense there is just not anything I'd want up the middle in the major leagues every day. I know 2B has moved to a more offensive position, but I detest the Todd Walker types there. Defense first up the middle.
    That seems a little bit low. Here is a simulation I ran on him being a little more generous with his power than I liked (I would give him a few more doubles). I gave him a 9.5% walk rate and a 16% strikeout rate, both in line with his career rates in the minors. Let me know where we disagree with his numbers I put down here.

    Code:
    PA   AB  H  2B	3B  HR	BB  K	HBP  SF	SH   AVG   OBP	SLG	BABIP
    600 530 146 35	 2  20	57  96	 5   5	 3  .275  .348  .462	.301

  10. #39
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That seems a little bit low. Here is a simulation I ran on him being a little more generous with his power than I liked (I would give him a few more doubles). I gave him a 9.5% walk rate and a 16% strikeout rate, both in line with his career rates in the minors. Let me know where we disagree with his numbers I put down here.

    Code:
    PA   AB  H  2B	3B  HR	BB  K	HBP  SF	SH   AVG   OBP	SLG	BABIP
    600 530 146 35	 2  20	57  96	 5   5	 3  .275  .348  .462	.301
    Those aren't that far off. 20 HRs seems a bit optimistic to me as a regular expectation. He'll probably have a couple years like that, but be more a 15 HR guy. I just think the big leagues are tougher and I expect lower than the minor league numbers rather than replicating them in the big leagues.
    I know many guys do replicate them, but I think its a big assumption to expect it. Same reason we disagree on Stubbs probably.
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  11. #40
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    We know what he throws and he is both polished and old enough to have a strong feeling of what he could do. The fact that he hasn't done it as a pro so far doesn't really change that. It has nothing to do with where he was drafted. It has everything to do with why he was drafted there.
    Go ahead and give us a look into the future, then. What kind of performance should we expect from Leake, and how, then, do other pitching prospects fall in line? Would be interesting to know ahead of time how Wood will do, relative to Leake.

    Mike Leake's skill set does not scream major league success. That's why Baseball America was still calling him a two-way player as recently as the beginning of last year's college baseball season. He does not throw mid 90s with any regularity, far from it. There is no single pitch that grades as a true plus at the major league level, so far as I know. He relies on excellent movement and location. His margin for error will not be great. I love the guy's pitchability, intangibles and athleticism, but I am wary of the mileage put on his arm at ASU. If he's truly the team's 2nd/3rd best prospect, a better prospect than Travis Wood, then I expect him to overmatch minor league hitters in 2010 -- he's not a guy who's going to develop into a lot more than he is already. For me, it won't take more than 2010 to get a good feel for Leake, once he's had a chance to show what he can do against polished hitters. For now, though, I can't feel confident that he's projectible safely better than a #4 starter, much like Travis Wood, and we saw what Wood did to AA hitters as a 22 year old.
    Last edited by lollipopcurve; 10-17-2009 at 03:27 PM.
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  12. #41
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    My comp for Fraizer is DeRosa. Career OPS of .767. Maybe slightly better power numbers for Fraizer, but all in all I see him as a .760-.780 career OPS guy when all is said and done.

  13. #42
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Those aren't that far off. 20 HRs seems a bit optimistic to me as a regular expectation. He'll probably have a couple years like that, but be more a 15 HR guy. I just think the big leagues are tougher and I expect lower than the minor league numbers rather than replicating them in the big leagues.
    I know many guys do replicate them, but I think its a big assumption to expect it. Same reason we disagree on Stubbs probably.
    We can't forget that Frazier has played in some pitcher friendly parks in his minor league career and will be playing his home games in GABP. For his minor league career he has average 19 HR's , 38 doubles and 4 triples per 530 at bats. Scouting reports suggest Todd is a 25 HR guy. I don't think thats off in the slightest. He is more of a Sean Casey type of power guy (40 doubles, 25 HR), but he does have some pop.

  14. #43
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    My comp for Fraizer is DeRosa. Career OPS of .767. Maybe slightly better power numbers for Fraizer, but all in all I see him as a .760-.780 career OPS guy when all is said and done.
    Like I showed with my numbers above, where do we disagree at with Frazier?

  15. #44
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Go ahead and give us a look into the future, then. What kind of performance should we expect from Leake, and how, then, do other pitching prospects fall in line? Would be interesting to know ahead of time how Wood will do, relative to Leake.

    Mike Leake's skill set does not scream major league success. That's why Baseball America was still calling him a two-way player as recently as the beginning of last year's college baseball season. He does not throw mid 90s with any regularity, far from it. There is no single pitch that grades as a true plus at the major league level, so far as I know. He relies on excellent movement and location. His margin for error will not be great. I love the guy's pitchability, intangibles and athleticism, but I am wary of the mileage put on his arm at ASU. If he's truly the team's 2nd/3rd best prospect, a better prospect than Travis Wood, then I expect him to overmatch minor league hitters in 2010 -- he's not a guy who's going to develop into a lot more than he is already. For me, it won't take more than 2010 to get a good feel for Leake, once he's had a chance to show what he can do against polished hitters. For now, though, I can't feel confident that he's projectible safely better than a #4 starter, much like Travis Wood, and we saw what Wood did to AA hitters as a 22 year old.
    Both Leake's change up and slider are considered above average to plus. His control is considered plus. As for the comparison to Travis Wood, its not all that close. Wood's change up is slightly better. Everything else that Leake does is better. Better fastball, better third pitch, better fourth pitch, better control, better size, better injury history. Travis Wood is a good prospect, but he isn't in Mike Leake's class right now. You are right though, I fully expect Leake to dominate guys in the minors through at least AA because of his control and offspeed pitches. With that said, his comparison is often thought of as Tim Hudson. Similar stuff and size. Thats what I think we can expect. Leake seems to be a guy who is about as polished as they come. He doesn't offer much more projection. He already has plus control, so that isn't likely getting better. He already has two above average/plus secondary pitches. His size doesn't project his fastball to gain velocity. I really think he is what he is, right now. The only thing he needs to do is learn how to pitch to wooden bats.

  16. #45
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #2 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    My comp for Fraizer is DeRosa. Career OPS of .767. Maybe slightly better power numbers for Fraizer, but all in all I see him as a .760-.780 career OPS guy when all is said and done.
    This question is for you and the others who like to compare him with DeRosa. Why DeRosa? Can you give us a good argument as to what you are basing that comparison on? I'd be really interested in why people feel he's more like DeRosa, when everything points to him being much better than him. Until someone provides me with a reasonable argument Mike Lowell is a more fair comparison IMO.
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