Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball - Jacques Barzun
Whether Francisco can be that guy is another question. Personally, I see him trending that way. I respect the argument about the K/BB rate, but I also respect the numbers that Francisco puts up with a regularity that escalates as he moves along. I think he has a gift for driving in runs.
Unless you are Vlad like with hitting the ball anywhere at any time you have to take a walk or you will be exposed by major league pitching.
"When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"
I have to vote for Frazier here. I think some of those doubles will turn into HRs in GABP.Now if they can only find a position for him.
He doesn't have a gift for driving in runs. He has a gift of putting 75% of the plate appearances he see's in play. RBI are just going to add up when you do that with runners on base. The problem is he has a gift of not being on base for the guys behind him. He needs to fix that. Be it by walking more or striking out less.Whether Francisco can be that guy is another question. Personally, I see him trending that way. I respect the argument about the K/BB rate, but I also respect the numbers that Francisco puts up with a regularity that escalates as he moves along. I think he has a gift for driving in runs.
And your projection doesn't take into account that he has improved at every level. JF seems to me to be the "real" definition of raw. He's still raw, AND young. I think he'd have a ton of value as a middle of the order hitter with a .330 OBP, and I also think he's learning enough to post that consistently going forward.
“I’ll just take my walk,” he said, to laughter. One reporter followed up that Hamilton might be able to score from first on a single. “If he does, that’s great. Isn’t that crazy? Think about that: I hit a single and got an RBI. Like I said, crude stat, right?”
If that's all JF becomes -- a .280/.315/.515 hitter -- a sixth hitter in a decent lineup, he is still one of the top three prospects in this system. And of course he could become much more.
I don't know what you expect from most of these guys, but make sure somebody reminds us when Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier enter the Hall of Fame. Or Yorman Rodriguez.
If the Reds still had Cueto, Bailey, Bruce and Votto as prospects, I wouldn't be touting JF so highly. But with this current crop, given his upside and downside, he clearly IMO is one of the top three guys.
Every time we have a discussion about poor selectivity at the plate I.E. swinging at bad pitches, pitcher's pitches etc. I am reminded of the philosophy of great hitters. Now not every hitter can be a great hitter it takes more than an approach. But adopting an intelligent approach does allow all players to maximize their ability. Even Vlad who is well known as a free swinger isn't devoid of a decent approach, with a career walk rate of 8.75%. Of course alot of that is of the intentional variety, but even when you take those away he isn't swinging at just anything all the time.
Juan has to be able to walk enough to keep the opposition honest. And we know that stats tend to drop off going from the minors to the majors. So my question is what BB rate should he have at minimum in AAA to give him a decent shot at having the minimum respectable BB rate in the pros? I know it's not a given but would 8% equate to say 6% (sans IBB) at the major league level? And is that the minimum acceptable rate for the pros and still be a an impact level bat?
BeyondtheBoxScore had an article on Vlad the other day. Vlad swings at 50% of the pitches thrown to him outside of the strikezone. Thats 20% more than the average guy in baseball. Thats an incredible amount.
The problem isn't his low walk rate. Guys can get by with the walk rate in the 4-5% range. They just have to be making contact at a high level so they can also carry a .300 batting average year in and year out. Depending on how often a guy strikes out is going to change how often he should be walking in order to post a solid OBP. If Francisco stays in his 20% range, he probably needs to walk at the very least 8% of the time in the majors. Thats about double of what he has been doing so far.