Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

[mace]

The problem is 13 walks to Francisco is a 48% increase to what he did last year. That is more than a significant increase. Its astronomical.

We're just gonna have to differ on that one. You say astronomical. I say one every two weeks. (I's 48 pct of a very small number, after all.)

[RedsManRick]

First task of the game is, after all, to hit the ball.

Really? I thought it was to score runs. And to score runs you have to advance the runners already on base and get on base yourself. Hitting the ball is merely one of the ways you do that...

[RedsManRick]

The problem is 13 walks to Francisco is a 48% increase to what he did last year. That is more than a significant increase. Its astronomical.

We're just gonna have to differ on that one. You say astronomical. I say one every two weeks. (I's 48 pct of a very small number, after all.)

I think it's an open question: When we consider improvement, should we consider it on a percentage or an absolute basis? Which better captures the scale of change in skill?

Is the improvement in skill which results in adding 13 walks the same if you're going from 30 to 43 as the improvement required to go from 100 to 113? Or does that represent a much bigger required improvement?

[TRF]

Usually you can count on a few more hits. Regardless of the hitter, this is pretty steady. Sure, in a very small sample, it does not necessarily mean exactly three or four hits in 12 balls in play, but you can almost bank on the batting average being improved over the course of enough added BIP.

poppycock. Mark Reynolds set the all time K record... again. He struck out 19 MORE times than he did last year and RAISED his BA.

His BA went up because he walked more and got more hits. It had NOTHING to do with his K's.

[TRF]

I just looked at the top 10 in K's in MLB for 2009, and looked at all their stats.

There is NO correlation between K's and OBP or BA. There just isn't.

Example, Mike Cameron's second highest OBP season was 1999, the year he posted his 4th highest K total.

Brandon Inge K'd 170 times in 2009, 150 times in 2007, and 128 times in 2006. The K's had NO effect on his OBP, though his BA varied a bit..

It's like that for almost every player in the top ten.

I 100% agree JF needs to walk more, but his K's are not an issue.

[Mario-Rijo]

I just looked at the top 10 in K's in MLB for 2009, and looked at all their stats.

There is NO correlation between K's and OBP or BA. There just isn't.

Example, Mike Cameron's second highest OBP season was 1999, the year he posted his 4th highest K total.

Brandon Inge K'd 170 times in 2009, 150 times in 2007, and 128 times in 2006. The K's had NO effect on his OBP, though his BA varied a bit..

It's like that for almost every player in the top ten.

I 100% agree JF needs to walk more, but his K's are not an issue.

I'm nitpicking but obviously you want guys to make as few outs as possible regardless of type. I know you aren't arguing that just a friendly reminder when we are discussing K's that gets lost at times. But I still believe putting good strikes in play is more productive than not from an overall perspective.

[HokieRed]

Really? I thought it was to score runs. And to score runs you have to advance the runners already on base and get on base yourself. Hitting the ball is merely one of the ways you do that...

I'd like to have pitched against teams that thought they never had to hit the ball to score runs. Those teams would not get many walks.

[mace]

I think it's an open question: When we consider improvement, should we consider it on a percentage or an absolute basis? Which better captures the scale of change in skill?

Is the improvement in skill which results in adding 13 walks the same if you're going from 30 to 43 as the improvement required to go from 100 to 113? Or does that represent a much bigger required improvement?

Well, if a guy went from one HR to two--a 100% increase--would you consider that a gargantuan improvement? A lot depends on the quantity you start with.

[HokieRed]

Well, if a guy went from one HR to two--a 100% increase--would you consider that a gargantuan improvement? A lot depends on the quantity you start with.

Depends on how long it had taken him to hit the 1 HR. Seems to me that a move from 30-43 walks over a whole season is actually a very large one. It's possible JF may start to get more walks--while he's in the minors--just as other teams become more aware of him. If he's always been the youngest kid in the leagues, opposing strategy may always have been to challenge him pretty directly. Have to remember that there are also sometimes incentives in minor league baseball that are a little different than in the majors. Pitchers obviously don't want to get taken deep, and they want to win, but they're also aware that if they're to advance, it matters not only how many guys they get out but who they are. So if JF is perceived as a rising star, it becomes important for a pitcher to try to get him out, not just pass him and then get out three guys that everybody even in the stands knows are not going anywhere.

[Brutus]

poppycock. Mark Reynolds set the all time K record... again. He struck out 19 MORE times than he did last year and RAISED his BA.

His BA went up because he walked more and got more hits. It had NOTHING to do with his K's.

His BA went up, though, mostly because he hit sixteen (16) more homers than a year ago. He had 19 more strikeouts, but he also had (49) more plate appearances. His K% was only .6 higher than last year.

It was the homers that did most of his increase in batting average. However, his BABIP went from .329 a year ago to .341 this year. So clearly he would have been well served to strikeout at the same pace as last year, or he would have had even more hits.

Still, you're using an outlier to try and make a point. More guys will have a higher BA with fewer strikeouts than to the contrary.

[Brutus]

I just looked at the top 10 in K's in MLB for 2009, and looked at all their stats.

There is NO correlation between K's and OBP or BA. There just isn't.

Hm. That's interesting.

Because you know what? I just went through and ran a correlation of K% to BA for every team from 1920-2009.

You want to know what I found?

-.59 correlation

IE, 35% of batting average can be explained away simply by higher or lower strikeout totals.

Fancy that, eh?

In other words, there absolutely is a correlation.

[mace]

Depends on how long it had taken him to hit the 1 HR. Seems to me that a move from 30-43 walks over a whole season is actually a very large one. It's possible JF may start to get more walks--while he's in the minors--just as other teams become more aware of him. If he's always been the youngest kid in the leagues, opposing strategy may always have been to challenge him pretty directly. Have to remember that there are also sometimes incentives in minor league baseball that are a little different than in the majors. Pitchers obviously don't want to get taken deep, and they want to win, but they're also aware that if they're to advance, it matters not only how many guys they get out but who they are. So if JF is perceived as a rising star, it becomes important for a pitcher to try to get him out, not just pass him and then get out three guys that everybody even in the stands knows are not going anywhere.

That's a point I'd been reluctant to broach, because I don't know the answer. The context in which I'd thought about it was whether MLB pitchers are more likely to pitch around a guy than minor-league pitchers. One, they're more savvy. And I'd suspect that minor-leaguers might be less self-assured about walking people--they don't want their numbers to suggest that they have a control problem. Just speculating.

As for the increase in walks (30 to 43), like I said, you can look at it either way. Percentage-wise, it's a giant leap. In actual numbers, it's one walk every two weeks. That hardly seems insurmountable to me.

[dougdirt]

I just looked at the top 10 in K's in MLB for 2009, and looked at all their stats.

There is NO correlation between K's and OBP or BA. There just isn't.

Example, Mike Cameron's second highest OBP season was 1999, the year he posted his 4th highest K total.

Brandon Inge K'd 170 times in 2009, 150 times in 2007, and 128 times in 2006. The K's had NO effect on his OBP, though his BA varied a bit..

It's like that for almost every player in the top ten.

I 100% agree JF needs to walk more, but his K's are not an issue.

You are missing the point. If all things stay the same (power, walks, BABIP), the guy who strikes out less will have a higher average, OBP and SLG. That was the point I was making. If Juan keeps his power, walks and BABIP the same but cuts his strikeout rate some, his AVG/OBP/SLG all go up.

[dougdirt]

That's a point I'd been reluctant to broach, because I don't know the answer. The context in which I'd thought about it was whether MLB pitchers are more likely to pitch around a guy than minor-league pitchers. One, they're more savvy. And I'd suspect that minor-leaguers might be less self-assured about walking people--they don't want their numbers to suggest that they have a control problem. Just speculating.

As for the increase in walks (30 to 43), like I said, you can look at it either way. Percentage-wise, it's a giant leap. In actual numbers, it's one walk every two weeks. That hardly seems insurmountable to me.

While I agree that it seems doable for most guys, when the guy who needs to do it is only walking twice every two weeks as it is, its a lot different.

[HokieRed]

That's a point I'd been reluctant to broach, because I don't know the answer. The context in which I'd thought about it was whether MLB pitchers are more likely to pitch around a guy than minor-league pitchers. One, they're more savvy. And I'd suspect that minor-leaguers might be less self-assured about walking people--they don't want their numbers to suggest that they have a control problem. Just speculating.

As for the increase in walks (30 to 43), like I said, you can look at it either way. Percentage-wise, it's a giant leap. In actual numbers, it's one walk every two weeks. That hardly seems insurmountable to me.

I think minor league pitchers are probably less concerned about walking people than they are about the report the mgr. files after each game, which is going to comment on who they got out and who they didn't. So the guy pitching against Carolina this year wants it to be said that he got out Frazier and Francisco three times (or once if he's a reliever). It doesn't matter a lot if he got out everybody else in that lineup or not. Most of those guys are going to be AA players, period. What's interesting to me about Francisco is that he walks so little while striking out relatively few times. From the pitcher's standpoint, that means he's being pitched to and if he's being pitched to, I'd guess it's because people think he can be gotten out in a relatively predictable way. But the predictable way for most power hitters is by striking out. I wish I'd see him hit more and also seen the way he's pitched. It may be there's been a relatively clear book on him but he's learning to close the pages on that. If so, his walks may catch up once it becomes clearer that he can't be gotten out the way he has been. It would be great to hear from somebody who saw Carolina a lot on how he's been pitched and gotten out.