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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

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  • Brad Boxberger

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  • Zack Cozart

    1 0.66%
  • Danny Dorn

    1 0.66%
  • Juan Duran

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  • Juan Francisco

    33 21.85%
  • Todd Frazier

    81 53.64%
  • Chris Heisey

    3 1.99%
  • Matt Maloney

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  • Devin Mesoraco

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  • Yorman Rodriguez

    18 11.92%
  • Neftali Soto

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  • Travis Wood

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Thread: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

  1. #61
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mound_patrol View Post
    Asking one guy to be THE guy just spells trouble. I want a guy who can drive players in if he gets his pitch, but can take a walk if he gets nothing to drive. More guys on base equal more RBI chances. Now we just need more players who know how to find firstbase.
    So you don't want the best RBI guy in the most important RBI slot? (And the best RBI guy is one who will sacrifice some walks for hits, put the bat on the ball and get the runners around.)

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  3. #62
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    So you don't want the best RBI guy in the most important RBI slot? (And the best RBI guy is one who will sacrifice some walks for hits, put the bat on the ball and get the runners around.)
    I want the best overall hitters batting in the middle of the lineup. A hacker like Francisco would be better served at the bottom of the lineup. Somewhere around 6 or 7. That way his poor onbase skills wont be as costly.
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  4. #63
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    So you don't want the best RBI guy in the most important RBI slot? (And the best RBI guy is one who will sacrifice some walks for hits, put the bat on the ball and get the runners around.)
    Just because he's willing to swing at bad pitches and able to actually make some contact on them doesn't mean he'll consistently do anything good with it. You say he'll sacrifice some walks for hits, but it's far more likely he'll be sacrificing those walks for outs instead. Sure he may get a handful of hits as well but ultimately it's not gonna be very fruitful overall.
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  5. #64
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Just because he's willing to swing at bad pitches and able to actually make some contact on them doesn't mean he'll consistently do anything good with it. You say he'll sacrifice some walks for hits, but it's far more likely he'll be sacrificing those walks for outs instead. Sure he may get a handful of hits as well but ultimately it's not gonna be very fruitful overall.
    Obviously, the guy has to be a productive hitter to make that work. He has to combine power and average. That's a given. A .245 average with few walks and 45 homers won't feed the bulldog as a cleanup hitter. But a .295 average with few walks and 45 homers will. That's a lot of total bases, and consequently a lot of runs produced.

    Whether Francisco can be that guy is another question. Personally, I see him trending that way. I respect the argument about the K/BB rate, but I also respect the numbers that Francisco puts up with a regularity that escalates as he moves along. I think he has a gift for driving in runs.

  6. #65
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Unless you are Vlad like with hitting the ball anywhere at any time you have to take a walk or you will be exposed by major league pitching.
    "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"

  7. #66
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    I have to vote for Frazier here. I think some of those doubles will turn into HRs in GABP.Now if they can only find a position for him.

  8. #67
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    I'd prefer to entrust the driving in of runs to the players who are best at driving in runs--namely, the cleanup hitter. That's his job. You don't want him leaving it to somebody else. Yeah, he'll make more outs than the next day. But for a hitter who is asked to drive in runs, walks can be downright counter-productive.

    On the matter of hitting the ball hard, it has to be acknowledged that Francisco is not like "lots of guys." That's why we're having this discussion. He's different. I don't have numbers to back this up, but lots of eyeballs have attested that he simply hits the ball harder than anybody else in the system. Much harder.
    I would much prefer that the guy in the middle of my order both get on base and drive in runs, otherwise he is just hurting the team's overall run production. As for your second point, its just flat wrong. Francisco does hit the ball harder than most guys when he gets into it. The problem is he doesn't get into it as much because he expands his zone so much. Its why he has had 1 season with a .500 slugging percentage in his career. If he only swung at strikes, he would slug .600. But since he doesn't come close to that, he slugs .475-.500. Sure, he hits non strikes further than most guys hit non strikes, but on the whole because of how many non strikes he does hit, his overall 'hits' aren't harder than others because the others are hitting strikes hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Obviously, the guy has to be a productive hitter to make that work. He has to combine power and average. That's a given. A .245 average with few walks and 45 homers won't feed the bulldog as a cleanup hitter. But a .295 average with few walks and 45 homers will. That's a lot of total bases, and consequently a lot of runs produced.
    The problem is, Francisco with 45 home runs and his current strikeout rate of 20.5% would lead to an OBP in the .320-.330 range. Of course there just isn't much reason to expect him to hit 45 HR's. If he only hits 35, still a high total, we are looking at a guy who projects to be a .280/.315/.515 hitter. That is a #6 hitter in a decent lineup.

    Whether Francisco can be that guy is another question. Personally, I see him trending that way. I respect the argument about the K/BB rate, but I also respect the numbers that Francisco puts up with a regularity that escalates as he moves along. I think he has a gift for driving in runs.
    He doesn't have a gift for driving in runs. He has a gift of putting 75% of the plate appearances he see's in play. RBI are just going to add up when you do that with runners on base. The problem is he has a gift of not being on base for the guys behind him. He needs to fix that. Be it by walking more or striking out less.

  9. #68
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The problem is, Francisco with 45 home runs and his current strikeout rate of 20.5% would lead to an OBP in the .320-.330 range. Of course there just isn't much reason to expect him to hit 45 HR's. If he only hits 35, still a high total, we are looking at a guy who projects to be a .280/.315/.515 hitter. That is a #6 hitter in a decent lineup.
    Well, my math tells me that's an .830 OPS, better than any Red not named Joey Votto or Jonny Gomes, And I wouldn't bet a dime that Gomes could do it again over a full season.

    Just sayin'.

    And your projection doesn't take into account that he has improved at every level. JF seems to me to be the "real" definition of raw. He's still raw, AND young. I think he'd have a ton of value as a middle of the order hitter with a .330 OBP, and I also think he's learning enough to post that consistently going forward.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #69
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post


    If he only hits 35, still a high total, we are looking at a guy who projects to be a .280/.315/.515 hitter. That is a #6 hitter in a decent lineup.


    .
    Which is exactly the underlying reason for this debate.

    If that's all JF becomes -- a .280/.315/.515 hitter -- a sixth hitter in a decent lineup, he is still one of the top three prospects in this system. And of course he could become much more.

    I don't know what you expect from most of these guys, but make sure somebody reminds us when Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier enter the Hall of Fame. Or Yorman Rodriguez.

    If the Reds still had Cueto, Bailey, Bruce and Votto as prospects, I wouldn't be touting JF so highly. But with this current crop, given his upside and downside, he clearly IMO is one of the top three guys.

  11. #70
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Every time we have a discussion about poor selectivity at the plate I.E. swinging at bad pitches, pitcher's pitches etc. I am reminded of the philosophy of great hitters. Now not every hitter can be a great hitter it takes more than an approach. But adopting an intelligent approach does allow all players to maximize their ability. Even Vlad who is well known as a free swinger isn't devoid of a decent approach, with a career walk rate of 8.75%. Of course alot of that is of the intentional variety, but even when you take those away he isn't swinging at just anything all the time.

    Juan has to be able to walk enough to keep the opposition honest. And we know that stats tend to drop off going from the minors to the majors. So my question is what BB rate should he have at minimum in AAA to give him a decent shot at having the minimum respectable BB rate in the pros? I know it's not a given but would 8% equate to say 6% (sans IBB) at the major league level? And is that the minimum acceptable rate for the pros and still be a an impact level bat?

  12. #71
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He doesn't have a gift for driving in runs. He has a gift of putting 75% of the plate appearances he see's in play. RBI are just going to add up when you do that with runners on base.
    You just said that he doesn't have a gift for driving in runs, it's just that the RBIs add up when he does what he does with runners on base. Alrighty then.

  13. #72
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by urdun View Post
    Every time we have a discussion about poor selectivity at the plate I.E. swinging at bad pitches, pitcher's pitches etc. I am reminded of the philosophy of great hitters. Now not every hitter can be a great hitter it takes more than an approach. But adopting an intelligent approach does allow all players to maximize their ability. Even Vlad who is well known as a free swinger isn't devoid of a decent approach, with a career walk rate of 8.75%. Of course alot of that is of the intentional variety, but even when you take those away he isn't swinging at just anything all the time.

    Juan has to be able to walk enough to keep the opposition honest. And we know that stats tend to drop off going from the minors to the majors. So my question is what BB rate should he have at minimum in AAA to give him a decent shot at having the minimum respectable BB rate in the pros? I know it's not a given but would 8% equate to say 6% (sans IBB) at the major league level? And is that the minimum acceptable rate for the pros and still be a an impact level bat?
    BeyondtheBoxScore had an article on Vlad the other day. Vlad swings at 50% of the pitches thrown to him outside of the strikezone. Thats 20% more than the average guy in baseball. Thats an incredible amount.

    The problem isn't his low walk rate. Guys can get by with the walk rate in the 4-5% range. They just have to be making contact at a high level so they can also carry a .300 batting average year in and year out. Depending on how often a guy strikes out is going to change how often he should be walking in order to post a solid OBP. If Francisco stays in his 20% range, he probably needs to walk at the very least 8% of the time in the majors. Thats about double of what he has been doing so far.

  14. #73
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    You just said that he doesn't have a gift for driving in runs, it's just that the RBIs add up when he does what he does with runners on base. Alrighty then.
    That is what I said and I stand by it. He is worse in his career with runners on and risp than he is with no one on base. He is a .797 OPS bat with the bases empty. He is a .757 OPS bat with risp and a .763 bat with runners on.

  15. #74
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Which is exactly the underlying reason for this debate.

    If that's all JF becomes -- a .280/.315/.515 hitter -- a sixth hitter in a decent lineup, he is still one of the top three prospects in this system. And of course he could become much more.

    I don't know what you expect from most of these guys, but make sure somebody reminds us when Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier enter the Hall of Fame. Or Yorman Rodriguez.

    If the Reds still had Cueto, Bailey, Bruce and Votto as prospects, I wouldn't be touting JF so highly. But with this current crop, given his upside and downside, he clearly IMO is one of the top three guys.
    Sure, if thats all that he becomes, but the odds aren't good that he becomes even that. We are making an assumption that he not only becomes an above average power hitter in the major leagues despite a terrible plate approach that he also keeps his walk and strikeout rate the same as he did in the minor leagues with a terrible plate approach. I mean honestly, Francisco's most biased backers have him at an .850-.875 OPS, while his detractors see him in the .700's. A guy like Todd Frazier for example projects today, with no improvement, to be a .285/.350/.450 hitter in the major leagues and he plays the same positions as JF and is better at both places. Frazier is easily the better of the two prospects. He is better today. He has no weakness in his game and still has room to grow offensively.

  16. #75
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    BeyondtheBoxScore had an article on Vlad the other day. Vlad swings at 50% of the pitches thrown to him outside of the strikezone. Thats 20% more than the average guy in baseball. Thats an incredible amount.

    The problem isn't his low walk rate. Guys can get by with the walk rate in the 4-5% range. They just have to be making contact at a high level so they can also carry a .300 batting average year in and year out. Depending on how often a guy strikes out is going to change how often he should be walking in order to post a solid OBP. If Francisco stays in his 20% range, he probably needs to walk at the very least 8% of the time in the majors. Thats about double of what he has been doing so far.
    Ok thanks. If I may let me ask this question. Hypothetically if Juan Francisco walks at 4%, K's at 20%, gets 600+ pa's and has a slightly high BABIP doesn't that give us a really definitive general area of what he will do? And if so what is that? Let's just say he hit 7th in the lineup, which would be pretty likely.


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