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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

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  • Juan Francisco

    33 21.85%
  • Todd Frazier

    81 53.64%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

  1. #106
    Member GOYA's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    On June 8, 2009:

    Frazier .336
    Francisco .246

    Two months into the season at Carolina. Why not throw out Frazier's first two months because he was hitting an unsustainable AVG? Why not throw out those two months for Francisco because we know he's better than that?

    Or does a small sample of BABIP carry more weight?

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  3. #107
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Are these minor league K/BB rates achieved at ages 19-22? Or are they major league K/BB rates achieved after players reached maturity?

    We are dealing here with the prospects for a guy who just turned 22, yet you are comparing his numbers to fully formed major league performances.

    Show me any minor leaguer in the Reds system and I will find flaws. The issue is projecting forward, not assuming static performance.
    The point is, Francisco will not survive in the majors with that K:BB rate. You keep saying it's not a big deal. He keeps showing you that players in the majors don't last with that rate. Which is it - either he's young and still needs to develop or the K:BB rate isn't a big deal. You seem to be changing your point of view as to which point you're sticking with.

    The numbers clearly show that Francisco cannot and will not do well in the majors, as you're suggesting, unless that K:BB rate normalizes. That's been Doug's point from the beginning. Sure, everyone has minor league flaws. That's not being disputed. But evidence strongly suggests that Francisco's is a huge flaw - one that even the most impressive minor league numbers (discipline aside) won't hold up in the majors without a major improvement in that category.

    This isn't cherry-picking anything. This extreme example is one that is overwhelmingly a peripheral that does not do well in the majors. He's already shown that no RBI-guys over 100 in that span had a K:BB rate as bad as Francisco. He's already shown a bunch of guys in the majors this year with equally bad walk rates and only a few of them had an 800 OPS. What more evidence does one need to show that Francisco DOES need to drastically improve the K:BB rate and that it is in fact a big deal?

    Let me add that I do think Francisco has enormous talent. And personally, I do think he'll continue to improve. I was most impressed with him in his very limited sample in Cincinnati. I felt he showed pretty good patience at the plate. But the point is that you've directly asserted that his K:BB rate is not a big deal. Putting age aside (as no one has argued he's not young or can't improve), Doug is simply showing you that his rates truly are a big deal, so much that almost no one has been successful in the majors with the kind of rate Francisco has had to this point.
    Last edited by Brutus; 10-21-2009 at 01:33 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #108
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Say what? Jay Bruce's BB rate has never been an issue. He's been right around 10% in the minors and the majors and for his age that's excellent. So you lost me there. Your right about the fact that there isn't a single poster that doesn't want him to BB more. The problem here is some already believe he will and have him penciled in as a near gaurantee. Others of us feel the mountain he has to climb is awful high and he has a long ways to go to get there, and his chances of doing that are a bit slim to say the least. But now what the facts say is we should be quite pessimistic about his chances, yet all this optimism over a couple of short stints in AAA and MLB.
    Normalize Bruce's 2007 and 2008 BABIP's to the level doug was suggesting, .315.

    Does 45 BB's get it done with a guy hitting .240? or lower? That's the point KC and GOYA are making. JF doesn't walk much, but his BA skills got better at every level. .266 at Dayton, .277 at Sarasota, .281 at Carolina. And all the while, his BABIP until Louisville was certainly at an average to perhaps slightly above average level. And he is progressing as a player. His time at AA is really indicative of the type of player he is right now, as nothing is really out of whack.

    He is what he is, a young player with an increasing/developing skillset. He seems to be getting a handle on his K's. Why is it so hard to fathom that his development, which is showing he has an aptitude for understanding a part of the game, hitting and controlling his K's might lead to him understanding the value of BB's and how to take them?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  5. #109
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    The point is, Francisco will not survive in the majors with that K:BB rate. You keep saying it's not a big deal. He keeps showing you that players in the majors don't last with that rate. Which is it - either he's young and still needs to develop or the K:BB rate isn't a big deal. You seem to be changing your point of view as to which point you're sticking with.

    .

    I haven't changed my point a single time. There are two points:

    Ks and BBs are two independent measures. It's bad to have a high K rate. It's bad to have a low walk rate. For a power hitter, so far, JF has a walk rate problem. He doesn't have a K rate problem.

    In the case of JF, he has shown enormous ability and skill as a power hitter. Having watched him play, he is not a wild swinger, he seems focused on avoiding bad pitches. Based on these observations, his power, his youth, and the trajectory of his performance, I think he is an excellent prospect.

    That's it. Nothing inconsistent. Two simple points.

    In response, I've read dozens of posts saying essentially the same thing: it's bad if you don't walk. I think, when considering a young player like this, it's an oversimplification.

  6. #110
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I haven't changed my point a single time. There are two points:

    Ks and BBs are two independent measures. It's bad to have a high K rate. It's bad to have a low walk rate. For a power hitter, so far, JF has a walk rate problem. He doesn't have a K rate problem.

    In the case of JF, he has shown enormous ability and skill as a power hitter. Having watched him play, he is not a wild swinger, he seems focused on avoiding bad pitches. Based on these observations, his power, his youth, and the trajectory of his performance, I think he is an excellent prospect.

    That's it. Nothing inconsistent. Two simple points.

    In response, I've read dozens of posts saying essentially the same thing: it's bad if you don't walk. I think, when considering a young player like this, it's an oversimplification.
    They're not completely independent of one another, though. They both impact on base percentage from each extreme. Walks obviously increase OBP. Strikeouts decrease it, because fewer balls are put in play. The further the two levels go from one another, the more OBP directly goes down. As is, an unsustainable BABIP is making his OBP look better than what it should be. Not only can he not sustain those rates in the Majors, but by the time he stays in the majors, he automatically loses (on average) 10-15 points on BABIP right off the top because of better defenses.

    But anyhow, Francisco has more than a 4:1 rate thus far. He needs to get below 3:1 just to have a chance to succeed. Any slugging he can provide will render him ineffective with a low OBP he would have by a 3:1 rate (or worse). That's why the two are very much not independent of one another.

    My point about consistency was that at first you were arguing K:BB rate doesn't matter. Then when Doug showed you it very much does matter (as no one with Francisco's peripherals are succeeding in the majors), you dropped in the 'well he's only 22' response. I don't think anyone is saying he can't (or won't) get better. In fact, I fully expect him to. But it's very fair to point out his peripherals, because as are, he would not succeed in spite of his power.

    I like Francisco. Make no mistake. As I commented in a couple of the game threads late in the year, he looks the part at the plate. I think when it's all said and done he'll be a pretty good hitter. But to this point, I do completely understand the concern over his peripherals. It's not that they're a flaw, it's that they're bad enough (either directly or indirectly), he could not likely cut it at the big league level without improvement. K:BB doesn't matter in most normal examples. But when you start dealing with an extreme differential, it does matter.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  7. #111
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I haven't changed my point a single time. There are two points:

    Ks and BBs are two independent measures. It's bad to have a high K rate. It's bad to have a low walk rate. For a power hitter, so far, JF has a walk rate problem. He doesn't have a K rate problem.

    In the case of JF, he has shown enormous ability and skill as a power hitter. Having watched him play, he is not a wild swinger, he seems focused on avoiding bad pitches. Based on these observations, his power, his youth, and the trajectory of his performance, I think he is an excellent prospect.

    That's it. Nothing inconsistent. Two simple points.

    In response, I've read dozens of posts saying essentially the same thing: it's bad if you don't walk. I think, when considering a young player like this, it's an oversimplification.
    So what you are saying is:

    #1 His walk rate doesn't have to improve for him to be succesful at the MLB level.
    #2 His K rate doesn't have to improve to be succesful at the MLB level or based on his trajectory he will improve that part of his game.
    #3 He'll make enough contact and with his power make up for these deficiencies in K and BB rate.
    #4 His approach at the plate in his recent stint in the bigs proved that is his normal approach. Or at least his now normal approach moving forward.

    Do I have your views correct?
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  8. #112
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Normalize Bruce's 2007 and 2008 BABIP's to the level doug was suggesting, .315.

    Does 45 BB's get it done with a guy hitting .240? or lower? That's the point KC and GOYA are making. JF doesn't walk much, but his BA skills got better at every level. .266 at Dayton, .277 at Sarasota, .281 at Carolina. And all the while, his BABIP until Louisville was certainly at an average to perhaps slightly above average level. And he is progressing as a player. His time at AA is really indicative of the type of player he is right now, as nothing is really out of whack.

    He is what he is, a young player with an increasing/developing skillset. He seems to be getting a handle on his K's. Why is it so hard to fathom that his development, which is showing he has an aptitude for understanding a part of the game, hitting and controlling his K's might lead to him understanding the value of BB's and how to take them?
    Because guys with his lack of plate discipline usually never do, at least not to an acceptable level to make them an above average player. I'm just going with the odds in my opinion of him.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  9. #113
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Because guys with his lack of plate discipline usually never do, at least not to an acceptable level to make them an above average player. I'm just going with the odds in my opinion of him.
    Outliers exist, and I need a new prospect to latch on to now that Tyler Pelland has retired.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #114
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Are these minor league K/BB rates achieved at ages 19-22? Or are they major league K/BB rates achieved after players reached maturity?

    We are dealing here with the prospects for a guy who just turned 22, yet you are comparing his numbers to fully formed major league performances.

    Show me any minor leaguer in the Reds system and I will find flaws. The issue is projecting forward, not assuming static performance.
    Those are the major league rates. My point is and always has been that he absolutely 100% MUST IMPROVE. Not that he can't. Not that he won't. But that he has to. Until he does, and does so by quite a large chunk, he is going to either he an extreme historical outlier, or fighting to OPS .825 year in and year out in his best years.

    Certainly everyone has their flaws. The problem is, Francisco has a flaw that guys simply don't overcome all that often.

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    You are willing to throw out a season's worth of stats because a player was on a sustained hot streak at the end of the year.

    Cisco was tearing it up at the end of his time in Carolina and continued through Louisville and into Cincy. Can he maintain that level? No, and his full season stats aren't anywhere near what he did the last two months of the season. But those two months are a part of his season. Just like any player's hot streaks.

    You really seem biased against Francisco and show a tendancy to interpret data against him.
    I am not throwing out the season stats. I am saying that because he had 100 RBI in the minors means absolutely nothing given the data I showed from the majors. It's an entirely different game. I am not biased toward Francisco, he is probably in my Top 5 prospects. I am trying to be as real as possible with him and presenting the data to those who seem to think it simply doesn't matter that he can't walk or post a K/BB sub 4.00 in the minor leagues because he has put up 'stats' while doing it in the minor leagues.

  11. #115
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Normalize Bruce's 2007 and 2008 BABIP's to the level doug was suggesting, .315.

    Does 45 BB's get it done with a guy hitting .240? or lower? That's the point KC and GOYA are making. JF doesn't walk much, but his BA skills got better at every level. .266 at Dayton, .277 at Sarasota, .281 at Carolina. And all the while, his BABIP until Louisville was certainly at an average to perhaps slightly above average level. And he is progressing as a player. His time at AA is really indicative of the type of player he is right now, as nothing is really out of whack.

    He is what he is, a young player with an increasing/developing skillset. He seems to be getting a handle on his K's. Why is it so hard to fathom that his development, which is showing he has an aptitude for understanding a part of the game, hitting and controlling his K's might lead to him understanding the value of BB's and how to take them?
    Francisco won't likely have a problem hitting for a .275 average in the majors. His average has gotten better each year because he has cut down on the strikeouts, but I am sure you knew that TRF. Juan must keep cutting down on the strikeouts if he isn't going to walk more. Or he is going to need to walk more if he is going to stagnate at the 20% K rate level. I think that we have seen flashes that Francisco can indeed get his plate discipline to a reasonable level. GOYA has noted and I can confirm that he did figure out to lay off the breaking ball under his hands in AAA after not being able to for about 2 straight weeks. When he was in the majors he showed more patience than I had ever seen with him before. I don't know why or how, but I hope it continues because he was mostly swinging at just strikes. Like I said earlier though, I want to see it first before giving him credit for being able to do it. Like any other skill, I want to see it over some sort of larger sample size than 25 at bats. With Francisco, I haven't seen that kind of discipline over a sample larger than that.

  12. #116
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    There's some real violent agreement in this thread. Everybody seems to be saying different versions of the same thing about Fransisco

    - He has a lot of power
    - He makes enough contact, but could do better
    - He does not currently walk enough to be successful in the majors
    - He's young and is likely to continue to improve
    - His performance last year was enough to raise an eyebrow towards the possibility of improving his walk rate, but it was not reliable evidence that he's there quite yet
    - If he does manage to raise his walk rate, he has a pretty bright future

    Does anybody disagree with any of these statements?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #117
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Francisco won't likely have a problem hitting for a .275 average in the majors. His average has gotten better each year because he has cut down on the strikeouts, but I am sure you knew that TRF. Juan must keep cutting down on the strikeouts if he isn't going to walk more. Or he is going to need to walk more if he is going to stagnate at the 20% K rate level. I think that we have seen flashes that Francisco can indeed get his plate discipline to a reasonable level. GOYA has noted and I can confirm that he did figure out to lay off the breaking ball under his hands in AAA after not being able to for about 2 straight weeks. When he was in the majors he showed more patience than I had ever seen with him before. I don't know why or how, but I hope it continues because he was mostly swinging at just strikes. Like I said earlier though, I want to see it first before giving him credit for being able to do it. Like any other skill, I want to see it over some sort of larger sample size than 25 at bats. With Francisco, I haven't seen that kind of discipline over a sample larger than that.
    OK, I'm confused on something. It seems to be a given that he's probably not going to have a problem hitting at least .275. I agree with you on the walks, but I see them inching up over time. I don't think cutting down on the K's instantly translates into more hits. Some, sure, but not K'ing doesn't equal hit. If he reduces his K's by 10 percent it doesn't mean a 10 percent increase in his BA, more like a 2-3% at best. So it isn't the number of K's but the ratio as you have suggested. Ok, I'm ok with that.

    You have suggested he might be an .830 OPS hitter. I'm saying that is such a huge upgrade over what the Reds have run out there post Dunn that I'd be thrilled with it, especially from a young player like JF.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #118
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There's some real violent agreement in this thread. Everybody seems to be saying different versions of the same thing about Fransisco

    - He has a lot of power
    - He makes enough contact, but could do better
    - He does not currently walk enough to be successful in the majors
    - He's young and is likely to continue to improve
    - His performance last year was enough to raise an eyebrow towards the possibility of improving his walk rate, but it was not reliable evidence that he's there quite yet
    - If he does manage to raise his walk rate, he has a pretty bright future

    Does anybody disagree with any of these statements?
    No. the disagreement lies with does what you suggest = top five prospect. I think it does, others do not.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #119
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    No. the disagreement lies with does what you suggest = top five prospect. I think it does, others do not.
    I think everyone has him in their top 5. Doug has stated he does. I know I do. I don't think anyone even disagrees on that.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  16. #120
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #3 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There's some real violent agreement in this thread. Everybody seems to be saying different versions of the same thing about Fransisco

    - He has a lot of power
    - He makes enough contact, but could do better
    - He does not currently walk enough to be successful in the majors
    - He's young and is likely to continue to improve
    - His performance last year was enough to raise an eyebrow towards the possibility of improving his walk rate, but it was not reliable evidence that he's there quite yet
    - If he does manage to raise his walk rate, he has a pretty bright future

    Does anybody disagree with any of these statements?
    Without getting a bit ticky tack, no I can't say I disagree with any of it.

    All I'm suggesting is that I think Frazier is a better bet even though he too does have an issue which concerns me some. No one is a sure 100% bet, but ultimately I doubt Francisco gets to the point where he is so much better with the bat that his overall worth/value is better than Fraziers which makes Frazier the better prospect in my eyes.

    I have been doubting Juan as long and as sure as anyone, or I am at least the most vocal about it. That gets confused for wanting to see him fail. The truth is he has done a bit better than I expected of him by proving he could maintain/excel at AA. It's mildly surprising but not so much so that I change my position. I always saw him as a kid who was very talented but lacked overall self discipline on & off the field and a severe lack of plate discipline on the field. I didn't think he could work thru that enough to advance to MLB let alone overcome it completely to become an impact player. Now I see he had enough discipline to work thru it, which some do. I'm just not convinced he'll become that impact player/bat. He may surprise me yet but I just have a tough time buying that he will given how far he yet has to go. I don't believe he will improve his K or BB rates enough and I don't believe he's currently so adept at making contact that his average won't sag a great deal. When he hits the ball he'll hit it for power but it just won't be enough. He has given me enough pause to wonder if he will but not enough to feel confident he will.

    If he does then great what an asset.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 10-21-2009 at 04:24 PM.
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