Innings Pitched vs. Pitches Thrown

[NJReds]

I didn't see the end of the Yankees-Angels game 2, but driving on Sunday a.m., I heard a sports talk show host rail against Girardi for pitching Mariano Rivera for 2 1/3 innings. Called it a panic move that could keep Rivera out of game 3.

I thought it was a long time for Mariano to pitch, but looking at the boxscore, he only threw 25 pitches. Sometimes Cordero throws that many for a 1 inning save.

It's interesting that for the most part we say that a pitcher should come out of a game if he's thrown x number of pitches (usually 100). But then measure wear-and-tear on a pitcher at the end of the season by his innings pitched.

If Pitcher A throws a complete game in 100 pitches, and pitcher B throws 105 pitches in 7 innings, which guy had more stress on his arm?

I'd be interested in hearing Redszone's take on this.

[Brutus]

I didn't see the end of the Yankees-Angels game 2, but driving on Sunday a.m., I heard a sports talk show host rail against Girardi for pitching Mariano Rivera for 2 2/3 innings. Called it a panic move that could keep Rivera out of game 3.

I thought it was a long time for Mariano to pitch, but looking at the boxscore, he only threw 25 pitches. Sometimes Cordero throws that many for a 1 inning save.

It's interesting that for the most part we say that a pitcher should come out of a game if he's thrown x number of pitches (usually 100). But then measure wear-and-tear on a pitcher at the end of the season by his innings pitched.

If Pitcher A throws a complete game in 100 pitches, and pitcher B throws 105 pitches in 7 innings, which guy had more stress on his arm?

I'd be interested in hearing Redszone's take on this.

To the extent I worry about pitchers being pitched too much (and I do not worry about it as much as many people do), I think pitches are a better indicator than innings. However, I think "stress" is relative and cannot be completely quantified within the number of pitches. I think it's likely that in your scenario, a complete game with 100 pitches is probably a lot less stress than the 105 in 7 - not just because of the five more pitches, but because most of those pitches in the first scenario are probably out of the windup (which is a lot less stress on the arm by nature) and there is more of a free-and-easy delivery.

[kaldaniels]

I believe pitches thrown is way more important. Some will argue about the physiology of the body when you rest your arm between innings and then going back out to the mound and "warming your arm back up". But ultimately the quanity of pitches thrown has to be of higher importance, and I don't know why the innings-pitched-watching crowd does not recognize that more often.

[Dom Heffner]

An inning is an arbitrary measurement piece.

It can be 3 pitches or it can be a lot more.

Commentators who don't get the difference, especially in small sample sizes, drive me nuts. The Rivera example is spot on.

I'm guessing over a large sample size, such as a season, it evens out- pitchers who throw 200 innings probably do so in approximately the same number of pitches.

[RedsManRick]

I would argue that 25 pitches over 3 innings is likely less stressful that 25 pitches in a single inning. Firstly, his arm gets a chance to recoup a little bit between innings. Secondly, he's pitching in relatively low stress situations, making him less likely to overthrow and put more strain on himself.

I agree that as innings accrue, they become pretty well correlated with pitches, but ultimately it is pitches, the act of throwing the ball, that matters most.

[TheNext44]

I don't know the answer, but you have to figure in that the pitcher throws around 8 warm up pitches before every inning. I know they are less stressful, but it still is 8 violent actions that go against the physics of the human arm. Even if those are half as stressful as in game pitches, you would then figure that Rivera threw at least 33 pitches in those 2.6 innings.

[NJReds]

I don't know the answer, but you have to figure in that the pitcher throws around 8 warm up pitches before every inning. I know they are less stressful, but it still is 8 violent actions that go against the physics of the human arm. Even if those are half as stressful as in game pitches, you would then figure that Rivera threw at least 33 pitches in those 2.6 innings.

True, but if Rivera pitched 1 inning and threw 25 pitches than Girardi is supposedly doing a good job, but if Rivera throws 2 1/3 innings and throws 25 pitches then it's a panic move.

There may be a slight difference between the energy put forth -- the resting/warming up/resting action -- but it seems trivial to me.

[PuffyPig]

I don't know the answer, but you have to figure in that the pitcher throws around 8 warm up pitches before every inning. I know they are less stressful, but it still is 8 violent actions that go against the physics of the human arm. Even if those are half as stressful as in game pitches, you would then figure that Rivera threw at least 33 pitches in those 2.6 innings.

Actually, he would have thrown quite a bit more. A pitchers throws more than 8 warm up pitches before he comes into the game. Then, about 8 before each inning. So, at least 24 while in the game and a bunch more warming up.

[bucksfan2]

I think in this case you worry about innings more. In this situation Rivera had to twice do something that is pretty foreign to him. Warming up, pitching, and then cooling down in the dugout can take its toll on an arm that isn't used to doing so. I don't know how many 2 inning saves Rivera has had this season, but I would imagine it isn't that much.

Rivera may be unable for use for the Yanks 3rd game, but a win in game 2 is much more valuable.

[blumj]

There was a day off between games 2 and 3, though. And Mariano Rivera isn't human.

[kaldaniels]

I think in this case you worry about innings more. In this situation Rivera had to twice do something that is pretty foreign to him. Warming up, pitching, and then cooling down in the dugout can take its toll on an arm that isn't used to doing so. I don't know how many 2 inning saves Rivera has had this season, but I would imagine it isn't that much.

Rivera may be unable for use for the Yanks 3rd game, but a win in game 2 is much more valuable.

Then shouldn't any extended stoppage of play...injurys/weather/fans on field/umpire discussions be added to the Abuse Points System? Fair is fair.

The thing is in theory measuring pitchers workload/abuse is currently for the most part measured in IP...with the understanding that it all evens out over time. Why not use actual pitches, with IP/stoppages in play factored in some how.

Please don't strawman me and say that I think fans running on the field are a reason to throw the current pitcher workload philosophy into chaos...I'm not. I just don't see why the actual pitch number isn't used in lieu of IP...we have the data...why not use it. For that matter we have the in-game data of how often a pitcher has to rest and warm his arm back up...why not use that?

Using only IP (many do) to judge a pitcher's workload is pretty arbitrary in my opinion. We microanalyze everything...why not this?

Edit: Nice topic NJ.

[edabbs44]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that there is no right or wrong answer here. No one knows for sure how to quantify the effect certain situations have on an arm and we probably will never know.

Baker got lambasted for abusing Wood and Prior at the time of their demise. Now most of the issues are blamed on poor mechanics. The SD Harang disaster now appears to have had less of a monumental effect as first predicted. The Arroyo abuse talk from 2007-2008 is now non-existant since he became Cy Young in the 2nd half. Yet we see guys who are babied like Liriano go through surgery and subsequent struggles. Guys like Webb, Johan and Peavy starting to break down when historically they have been treated with kid gloves. Guys like Zambrano who pitch tons each year and still are out there every 5th day.

I think there is a common sense piece of this, like don't pitch a closer 7 innings or don't throw a starter for 200 pitches. My own opinion is that as long as you stay within the boundaries of what the subject arm is used to (as well as within the boundaries of reasonableness), you should probably be fine. But there isn't any science to it and that's only one man's opinion. And there will be exceptions. And any "stat" that is discussed as having some predictive type of effect is probably bunk.

[bucksfan2]

Then shouldn't any extended stoppage of play...injurys/weather/fans on field/umpire discussions be added to the Abuse Points System? Fair is fair.

The thing is in theory measuring pitchers workload/abuse is currently for the most part measured in IP...with the understanding that it all evens out over time. Why not use actual pitches, with IP/stoppages in play factored in some how.

Please don't strawman me and say that I think fans running on the field are a reason to throw the current pitcher workload philosophy into chaos...I'm not. I just don't see why the actual pitch number isn't used in lieu of IP...we have the data...why not use it. For that matter we have the in-game data of how often a pitcher has to rest and warm his arm back up...why not use that?

Using only IP (many do) to judge a pitcher's workload is pretty arbitrary in my opinion. We microanalyze everything...why not this?

Edit: Nice topic NJ.

Not a big believer in the pitchers abuse points system. I think that every pitcher is different and effected differently. I really think without having first hand exposure to a certain pitcher, it is very difficult to estimate a abuse points system.

The reason why I think in a reliever's case pitching multiple innings, when you are not used to doing so, is more difficult is because you aren't used to sitting on the bench while pitching. Most of the time you are used to warming up in the pen, coming in, and pitching right away. You come in ready, throw a couple of pitches, and are ready to go. When you pitch 2+ innings you spend 2 half innings sitting on the bench. You spend 2 half innings cooling down, I would imagine the cold weather only makes it worse.

Pitchers have a routine, and when that routine is broken, bad things can happen. I think its similar to the reason why every day players don't like to DH. They don't want their rhythm screwed with.

Sure IP are an arbitrary number but so is 100 pitches. Why is 120 pitches worse than 100 pitches? Without first hand knowledge, the pitcher, you really don't know the stress level of any pitch count.

[kaldaniels]

Not a big believer in the pitchers abuse points system. I think that every pitcher is different and effected differently. I really think without having first hand exposure to a certain pitcher, it is very difficult to estimate a abuse points system.

The reason why I think in a reliever's case pitching multiple innings, when you are not used to doing so, is more difficult is because you aren't used to sitting on the bench while pitching. Most of the time you are used to warming up in the pen, coming in, and pitching right away. You come in ready, throw a couple of pitches, and are ready to go. When you pitch 2+ innings you spend 2 half innings sitting on the bench. You spend 2 half innings cooling down, I would imagine the cold weather only makes it worse.

Pitchers have a routine, and when that routine is broken, bad things can happen. I think its similar to the reason why every day players don't like to DH. They don't want their rhythm screwed with.

Sure IP are an arbitrary number but so is 100 pitches. Why is 120 pitches worse than 100 pitches? Without first hand knowledge, the pitcher, you really don't know the stress level of any pitch count.

Let me add I'm not a believer at all in Abuse Points or simply looking at IP. I think each pitcher is a unique indivudual and must be managed accordingly and as eddabbs said...with common sense. That said I have always wondered why IP is the stat always referenced in regards to pitcher workload, and I am looking forward to this thread.

[blumj]

That said I have always wondered why IP is the stat always referenced in regards to pitcher workload, and I am looking forward to this thread.

Because someone happened to notice that big increases in IP appeared to correlate with injuries and less effectiveness in younger pitchers. I don't think many MLB teams consider all innings, or all pitches, to be equal, not unless they're not thinking it through at all.