2010 Reds ZiPS Projections

[chicoruiz]

Over at baseballthinkfactory.org they've posted their statistical projections for the 2010 Reds, using their systen called "ZiPS". I don't know how their projections are done, and I don't agree with a lot of them (especially the pitching), but there's some interesting stuff there, especially regarding comps. For example:

-Bo Diaz shows up as a comp for Ramon Hernandez

-Jacob Brumfield is a listed comp for Darnell McDonald, which seems about right, unfortunately.

-My favorite: The #1 comp for Jared Burton is none other than Ted Power. Ironic. and pretty accurate.

Check it out if you get a chance...

[blumj]

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ncinnati_reds/


They have some other teams up, too.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/

[jojo]

ZiPS hates Stubbs (.235/.305/.348). He's Janish in centerfield.

[RedsManRick]

ZiPS hates Stubbs (.235/.305/.348). He's Janish in centerfield.

I'll be interested to see how PECOTA handles him. But I think it's actually reasonable given his statistical track record. He won't likely to continue his 17% HR/FB and his 27% K rate is pretty ugly.

It really comes down to sustaining his power production.

[Brutus]

Generally, the CHONE and PECOTA projections are the two I care about most.

[Scrap Irony]

If the playing time is about right, the offense projects to be slightly below league average to slightly above:

Stubbs/ Dickerson CF 77 (600 ABs, 100 ABs for Dickerson)
Janish SS 72 (Weakest part of offense by far.)
Votto 1B 128 (Lower than expected, especially considering he's entering his prime years.)
Rolen/ Francisco 3B 100 (Rolen gets two-thirds of the ABs, Francisco the others. ZiPS likes Francisco more than most on Redszone.)
Bruce/ Dickerson RF 100.5 (Projections for playing time are a little out of whack, and ZiPS projects very little boost for Bruce next year. Bruce = Kearns, in ZiPS' view.)
Gomes/ Balentien LF 100.5 (League average bat between them, in a 50/50 platoon.)
Phillips SS 102 (ZiPS likes them some Brandon Phillips. If glove added in, he becomes more valuable in 2010 than Votto.)
Hanigan C 87 (Need a free agent a great deal here, but ZiPS really likes Corky.)

The starting pitching looks to be above average as a whole. ZiPS really, really likes Matt Maloney, but fears and distrusts Homer Bailey. As a unit, the starters would average out as a 102.2 with missed starts being filled by ERA+ numbers (120, 95, 92) that are pretty close to league average as well.

The relievers grade out as well above average, at 119.3, with Lincoln in reserve at 93.

[Spring~Fields]

I'll be interested to see how PECOTA handles him. But I think it's actually reasonable given his statistical track record. He won't likely to continue his 17% HR/FB and his 27% K rate is pretty ugly.

It really comes down to sustaining his power production.

Sounds like they are saying that the Reds are DOA to me. Unless the GM finally gets something done.

They don't have much in the way of OBP do they?

Offensive Projections 
			 AVG  OBP  SLG 
Willy Taveras 		.260 .309 .320
Chris Dickerson	        .247 .336 .394 
Drew Stubbs 		.235 .305 .348
Paul Janish 		.239 .310 .340
Joey Votto		.293 .372 .500 
Brandon Phillips 	.276 .327 .446
Scott Rolen 		.283 .352 .439
Jay Bruce		.251 .315 .459
Laynce Nix		.249 .302 .456
Jonny Gomes 		.243 .328 .471
Ryan Hanigan 		.267 .347 .357
Corky Miller 		.243 .328 .361
Adam Rosales 	        .248 .314 .394

2010 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds
With the shackles of a one-dimensional offense led by base-clearing Adam Dunn fallen off, the Reds developed a flexible, aggressive offense, featuring the electric leadoff hitter Willy Taveras at the stop of the runner and even the home-run hitters, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto able to run the bases a bit, especially Phillips. With red lights turning green, the Red offense would Billyball the team to 90 wins when combined with the improved pitching staff. Wizened manager Dusty Baker does his best job yet, integrating rookies with veterans and making sure everyone has their proper playing time.

An upopular 12-year-old boy is chased into an old building by other kids that wanted to beat him up. Inside, the boy finds a magic radio and inside, is a gigantic African-American genie named Kazaam. Kazaam grants the boy wishes, including junk food falling from the sky, until the boy is kidnapped by the owner of a nightclub. Kazaam finds the boy dead, but sacrifices his genie powers to bring the boy back from the dead and everyone lives happily ever after.

Which scenario is more plausible? It's close, but my money is on Shaquille O'Neal's 3rd-best movie being closer to a gritty depiction of modern life than the Walt Jocketty-developed dreamscape.

Truth be told, the Reds at least have a good bullpen and some useful starting pitching, even with the true projection for Edinson Volquez being in the neighborhood of "0-0, 0.00" than the projection given below. The Red offense is still a mess and the team didn't make much of an effort to try new things or answer questions for 2010 outside of "try every player on the roster at shortstop!" after making Plans A through Z at the position a mediocre player that missed the entire 2008 season. There's a type of team that Dusty Baker can probably manage pretty well. The Reds, with questions and various options all over the place, are pretty much the worst type of team for Baker to have.

[TheNext44]

I'll be interested to see how PECOTA handles him. But I think it's actually reasonable given his statistical track record. He won't likely to continue his 17% HR/FB and his 27% K rate is pretty ugly.

It really comes down to sustaining his power production.

Historically, guys with one or two months at the end of the season as their only data, have been near impossible to project correctly.

Way too little data, against usually lesser talent, and there's the whole learning curve on both sides to deal with. There is now a scouting report on Stubbs, and that changes everything.

He could easily have worse numbers than what Zips is projecting and easily have better. It comes down to how he adjusts to the league and how the league adjusts to him.

[Highlifeman21]

ZiPS hates Stubbs (.235/.305/.348). He's Janish in centerfield.

Probably b/c they're projecting him to do in 2010 what he's done in the minors, which probably isn't all that far from the truth, IMO.

He might do slightly better than ZiPS, but I wouldn't bet anything of substance on it.

[jojo]

Historically, guys with one or two months at the end of the season as their only data, have been near impossible to project correctly.

Way too little data, against usually lesser talent, and there's the whole learning curve on both sides to deal with. There is now a scouting report on Stubbs, and that changes everything.

He could easily have worse numbers than what Zips is projecting and easily have better. It comes down to how he adjusts to the league and how the league adjusts to him.

ZiPs incorporates minor league data so Stubbs' projection is built on much more than just 2 months of data.

BTW, it would be tough to easily have worse numbers than the ones ZiPs is projecting for Stubbs.

[TheNext44]

ZiPs incorporates minor league data so Stubbs' projection is built on much more than just 2 months of data.

BTW, it would be tough to easily have worse numbers than the ones ZiPs is projecting for Stubbs.

Willy Taveras did it pretty easily. lol

[dougdirt]

Last years ZiPS

Name	         AVG	OBP	SLG
Ramon Hernandez	.263	.326	.418
Ryan Hanigan	.260	.338	.338
Joey Votto	.280	.353	.490
Bran Phillips	.268	.320	.440
Ed Encarnacion	.272	.354	.481
Alex Gonzalez	.258	.313	.407
Jay Bruce	.276	.328	.522
Laynce Nix	.259	.311	.492
Chris Dickerson	.235	.317	.413
Darn McDonald	.267	.323	.415
Willy Taveras	.272	.318	.331

Some solid hits. Hanigan and Phillips. Some solid misses. Hernandez, Votto, Encarnacion, Bruce, Taveras and McDonald. Dickerson was actually close, on OPS, but way off on both the OBP and SLG.

[*BaseClogger*]

I don't know how their projections are done, and I don't agree with a lot of them (especially the pitching)

Do you find the pitching projections to be overly optimistic? Because they look terrific...

[nate]

Darn McDonald indeed!

[*BaseClogger*]

Last years ZiPS

Name	         AVG	OBP	SLG
Ramon Hernandez	.263	.326	.418
Ryan Hanigan	.260	.338	.338
Joey Votto	.280	.353	.490
Bran Phillips	.268	.320	.440
Ed Encarnacion	.272	.354	.481
Alex Gonzalez	.258	.313	.407
Jay Bruce	.276	.328	.522
Laynce Nix	.259	.311	.492
Chris Dickerson	.235	.317	.413
Darn McDonald	.267	.323	.415
Willy Taveras	.272	.318	.331

Some solid hits. Hanigan and Phillips. Some solid misses. Hernandez, Votto, Encarnacion, Bruce, Taveras and McDonald. Dickerson was actually close, on OPS, but way off on both the OBP and SLG.

I wouldn't call those Hernandez, Nix, Bruce, or McDonald projections "solid misses"...