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Thread: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections

  1. #16
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Has anybody done the math on how our RS/RA comes out given those projections and some reasonable playing time assumptions?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I wouldn't call those Hernandez, Nix, Bruce, or McDonald projections "solid misses"...
    I didn't say Nix. But Bruce was at an .850 OPS, but reality had him at .773. Hernandez was at .744. Reality had him at .699, not as big of a gap, but nearly 50 points. McDonald was at .738. Reality had him at .706. I was wrong on that one. I had a column wrong and had his slugging lower.

  4. #18
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I didn't say Nix. But Bruce was at an .850 OPS, but reality had him at .773. Hernandez was at .744. Reality had him at .699, not as big of a gap, but nearly 50 points. McDonald was at .738. Reality had him at .706. I was wrong on that one. I had a column wrong and had his slugging lower.
    I guess you are right if you look solely at OPS, but they fairly accurately predicted those players peripherals. Bruce was spot on except for about 50 points of BA...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  5. #19
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Biggest things that jumped out to me about these projections:

    Kevin Barker (!) 4th on the team in OPS
    Homer Bailey as the 12th best starter in the organization

    Both pretty nuts if you ask me.

  6. #20
    Member chicoruiz's Avatar
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    Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote:

    Do you find the pitching projections to be overly optimistic? Because they look terrific...
    __________________
    I was mostly looking at Homer. It's tough to reconcile a stats-based projection with the subjective view that he turned a corner in the second half, and that his future should align more with that than with his stats as a whole. It's a gray area, I guess...
    "In baseball, you don't know nothin'"...Yogi Berra

  7. #21
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: 2010 Reds ZiPS Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Has anybody done the math on how our RS/RA comes out given those projections and some reasonable playing time assumptions?
    Really the best way to look at projections like these.

    Sure they will be way too optimistic on some, like the were on Bruce last year, and way to pessimistic on others, like Bailey this year, but those tend to cancel each other out.

    When you add up all the numbers as a team, they usually are pretty close to reality in the end. At least that's my impression.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein


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