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Thread: A Reds-Dbacks-A's-Jays four-team trade to be announced.

  1. #136
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    This trade stinks, pure and simple.
    Even if we pull a good starting pitcher to "replace" Elmer, that's not enough. You can't win with just one reliable starting pitcher.
    We've been waiting since 1997 for the glorious 2003.. but it appears that the front office is throwing in the towel already. Man, I hope they make some moves to try and win next year, but so far it's just the traditional Christmas salary dumping.

    We got robbed on this trade. Pure and simple. Elmer should've fetched a lot more than 1 prospect. I know this kid is hyped, but let's look at the law of averages.. he's most likely to be an average guy like Todd Walker.

    So far, it looks like we are stuck in perpetual rebuild mode. For crying out loud, they tried to dump Jr.. Yes, I know Jr has been hurt, but he's still key to us having a prayer to compete in the immediate future.

    How could we gut our starting rotation? I don't care if Elmer would've made 4 million in arb. Who are we going to find for 4 million on the free agent market that will put up similiar numbers?
    Or are we going to have to sell the farm in a trade to get a guy similiar?

    This is a really dumb trade. Same old crap from John Allen... salary dumps.

    Thanks for making the point about Arnold for me princeton

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  3. #137
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    WOY: thanks for the info. His MLB comps tend to fall in line with some of the guys listed.

    What i was hoping for was to see his AAA comps.

    What were their numbers like in AAA. The year previous to these numbers--well heck i could look that up on Waymore Sports.

    We'll compare Larkin, Nomar, Jeter, Tejada at the same age--AAA.

    Back in a minute.

  4. #138
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    we develop a SS, his name was Pokey Reese and we hated his attitude and his disappearing bat

  5. #139
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    I did a quick perusal of minor league stats. I hope i do this justice.


    Larkin played AA ball at age of 21. He had 255 AB's with an OPS of .674. The next year -age 22-he had 418 AB's and had a .933 OPS. Probably need to adjust his OPS downward by 60 or 70 points cause he played in Denver. Adjusted OPS is .840.

    He was in the majors the next year and put up numbers similar to Lopez's numbers.


    Nomar played A at age 21. He had 105 AB's with an OPS of .775. The next year he played AA. He had an OPS of .772. He tore up AAA at age 23 and was in the majors at age 24.



    Jeter played AAA at age 21. His OPS was .816. He had relatively immediate success in the majors.


    Tejada played AA at age 22. He had an OPS of .802.
    * recently he has had some age adjustments that have come to light--not sure if the problems are true.


    All that is to say:

    1. The younger a player in a league-the greater the chances for stardom. There are not a large amount of comps for Lopez because it's rare that 21/22 year old players make it to the majors. This alone points toward stardom. Young players who have success in AAA are rare. It just doesn't happen very often. When it does that player usually achieves stardom.

    2. Most of the players I compared Lopez to struggled when they first reached the bigs. It took them a while to make the adjustment, but they took a big step forward at age 23/24.

    3. Are there other 21/22 year old SS/2nd basemen that you can compare Lopez to that shed a negative light? Are there MIF's who have had those numbers and then went kerplunck? My guess is they'd be hard to find. (don't forget those good AAA numbers!)

    Lastly, Toronto already stamped the ticket as it relates to playing time. We should be able to reap teh benefits.

  6. #140
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    I wonder how many draft picks that 1/3 million we sent to Arizona is going to cost us?

    Think if that money was available this year or previous years.

    This SS kid probably has a good chance as any prospect, but I agree with M2, we should've gotten either a sure thing with the kid, or multiple prospects.

    Remember the Neagle deal? That deal was supposedly going to reload us, and now we are down to hoping Willy Mo is able to stick in the bigs, because everyone else flamed out. Real close to an 0-for-4 there.

    We dump Walker, then have to trade Dessens for Walker's replacement, and we try to trade Jr with no one in the wings to play CF. What the hell is going on? Oh yeah, salary dumping. This is what we waited 6 years for. The Reds had better make some moves that will actually help them win next year. John Allen promised that the new stadium would make us competitive. Time to pay the piper and start adding players instead of subtracting them.

  7. #141
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    Nice long thread! I bet this is really good but im not going to read all of it

  8. #142
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    Originally posted by princeton
    I'm waiting for Redread to point out that had we signed Jason Arnold for $60,000 after we drafted him in 1999, we could have dealt him even up for Felipe Lopez and kept Elmer Dessens
    Nah, if the Reds had signed him he would have had TJ surgery by now.
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