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Thread: A Reds-Dbacks-A's-Jays four-team trade to be announced.

  1. #121
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    How nice would it be to package up a few players for Vidro and Colon. Then lopez can wait in the wings for a year to replace larkin. Then we will have a switch hitter coming off of the bench and a bonafide leadoff hitter at second base. Plus with lopez backing up larkin he will still get a hundred starts next season.
    "When life turns ugly, turn on the Reds game and you will realize that all is right with the world"

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  3. #122
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Puff, despite some of the hype surrounding Lopez (a subject chili addressed), the fact is the Reds still might not have a replacement SS for Barry Larkin. Maybe they do. Maybe they don't.

    They traded Elmer Dessens for a single magic bean. I'm a firm believer that a dependable animal like that should fetch multiple magic beans.

  4. #123
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    When you consider our starting staff - I don't see where Elmer is so much better than the rest of the lot we have. I posted a nice ERA last year, but for the money he will make, he is not superior to our other options. This is a good trade.

    Now, I am all for Ortiz or another pitcher superior (Vasquez or Colon) to the grab bag we have, but let's not over-value Uncle Elmer. He emerged from the scrap heap of the Mexican league and likely had a career year. He is a decent starter with a wide range of potential, who will never be a stud.

  5. #124
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Over the past three years, Elmer Dessens has been better than the league average in ERA and gets you a quality start most of the time he takes the mound.

    Not a single pitcher of the Reds' remaining rotation candidates can claim that.

  6. #125
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Over the past three years, Elmer Dessens has been better than the league average in ERA
    Throw out last year and Elmer looks pretty normal. 4.39 era vs league 4.48.

    Here's Elmers numbers vs league average with the differences (plus or minus) noted

    Code:
    ELMER DESSENS
    
    YEAR TEAM         AGE W   L   PCT   G    GS  CG  SV  GF  IP     H    R    ER   BB   SO    ERA  RSAA
    1996 Pirates      24  -1  -1                  0   0           -15  -10   -11    5   -6  -4.06      
    1997 Pirates      25   0   0                  0   0             1    2     2    1   -1   4.21      
    1998 Pirates      26  -2  -2                  0  -2           -15  -12   -12    3  -13  -1.43      
    2000 Reds         28   3   3                  0  -1           -19   10     6   20  -25   0.36      
    2001 Reds         29  -1  -2                  0   0           -16    5    -3   20  -31  -0.12      
    2002 Reds         30  -3   2                 -1   0             2   19    21   20  -41   1.08      
         TOTALS           -5   1                 -2  -3           -63   14     3   69 -117   0.04      
    
    
    YEAR TEAM          HR  H/9   BR/9  SO/9  BB/9  SO/BB SHO WP  IBB HBP BFP   BK  NW  NL
    1996 Pirates        1 -5.35 -3.16 -2.09  1.89  1.22   0   1   1   1    -4   0         
    1997 Pirates        0  3.57  4.68 -1.49  3.47         0   0   0  -1     1   0         
    1998 Pirates       -2 -1.83 -1.14 -1.61  0.37 -0.29   0   2   0   3   -10   0         
    2000 Reds           9 -1.18  0.19 -1.56  1.21  0.22   0   1  -2   3     6   1         
    2001 Reds          -6 -0.72  0.48 -1.37  0.87  0.19   0   3   7   7    21   0         
    2002 Reds          -4  0.09  1.09 -2.07  1.01 -0.04  -1   3  -1   0    29   0         
         TOTALS        -1 -0.89  0.27 -1.67  0.98  0.10   0   9   5  13    44   1         

  7. #126
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    and Durazo has played on 3 or 4 all star teams.
    As a DH. Looks like he won't be playing 1st for a team that doesn't have one. he won't play OF (see 2002 Playoffs) Sure he can hit, but he doesn't bring much else to the game and he's the protypical AL player.

    This team has NO MI in the minors or on the ML field. That plays more heavily into our equation than getting Durozo, we have big guys who can mash and take a BB.

    We need MI help from AA up.

  8. #127
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    I do not know if any stated this or not, but I like how Lopez is a switch hitter. I can't remeber the last time we had one, but this is an added bonus. Given Boone's love of the right left right left order for batting, and our lack, meaning none, for switch hitters last year then score one for the Reds. Lastly, who was the Reds last switch hitter?

  9. #128
    Matt's Dad RANDY IN INDY's Avatar
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    I hate to bring this up, but the last switch hitter we had was the portly, disenchanted one in Detroit.

  10. #129
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    Damn, your right. That fat ass was a switch hitter.

  11. #130
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Before Dmitri it was Thomas Howard. Before him, Tony Fernandez.

    Oooh, and don't forget the immortal Mel Nieves.
    Last edited by M2; 12-16-2002 at 12:17 PM.

  12. #131
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    And I hate to bring THIS up:

    Lopez:

    As a LH batter: 214 AB's, 73 SO, .201 AVG, .269 OBP, .610 OPS

    I hope he isn't Jose Offerman II when it comes to switch hitting.
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  13. #132
    All dyslexics must untie!
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    I see this deal as a failure of the Red's scouting department to come up with an "heir apparent" SS to replace Barry Larkin. Gee, they only had about 10 years to draft/develop one

    Larkin has said he'd like to "pass on" the tips/wisdom that Davey Concepion handed down to him re: playing the position. As of today he has a pupil who can hit well enough to possibly be the next Red's starting SS. So that hole seems to have finally been plugged

    But I agree with chili and M2, the cost was too high. Sure, Dessens isn't a #1/2 starter, but Elmer's been the the best Red's SP over the past 3 seasons. It would be one thing if the Reds had several better alternatives to replace him already on the roster, but we know that's not the case

    Will Bowden acquire a better starting pitcher to replace Dessens? Hope so, but I'm not optimistic.

    I like the trade for AZ and the A's. The Red's still seem to be in rebuilding mode. Here's hoping it's not perennial
    Never overlook the obvious

  14. #133
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    I'm waiting for Redread to point out that had we signed Jason Arnold for $60,000 after we drafted him in 1999, we could have dealt him even up for Felipe Lopez and kept Elmer Dessens

  15. #134
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    Elmer is getting close to that magical number where things fall apart.

    1. His K/9 innings are at 4.6.
    2. My guess is his ERA does not begin to tell the true story about how effective he was last year...basically he was very lucky to have a 3.03 ERA. The numbers did not add up to that ERA. I'm guessing his component ERA was/is close to what he had always done.
    3. He's entering a time in his career when things go south. If you take a look at the pitchers who have SIM scores close to his (especially related to K/9), you'll see that hardly any of them had success after the age 30. They walked too close to the fire.

    I wish we had an idea of how good Lopez AAA numbers are--a historical perspective.

    21 or 22 years old.
    500 AB's.
    .360 OBP
    .490 SLG

    Players with those kind of numbers tend to pan out.

    WOY can you run some comps? It would be great if we could compare apples to apples...how well did Jeter do? Tejada? etc...If we could compare players who generated numbers like his we could see how well he might perform.

    It was a good trade.

  16. #135
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    WOY can you run some comps? It would be great if we could compare apples to apples...how well did Jeter do?
    Using 400 ab's as bottom and 700 as tops we get (since 1990) 16 times (11 players)who have achieved those numbers before age 23.

    Code:
    T BATS                       YEAR     AB       AB       OBA      SLG      AGE    
    1    Alex Rodriguez           1998      686      686     .360     .560       22   
    2    Andruw Jones             2000      656      656     .366     .541       23   
    3    Vladimir Guerrero        1998      623      623     .371     .589       22   
    4    Vladimir Guerrero        1999      610      610     .378     .600       23   
    T5   Alex Rodriguez           1996      601      601     .414     .631       20   
    T5   Scott Rolen              1998      601      601     .391     .532       23   
    T7   Albert Pujols            2002      590      590     .394     .561       22   
    T7   Albert Pujols            2001      590      590     .403     .610       21   
    9    Ken Griffey Jr.          1993      582      582     .408     .617       23   
    10   Ken Griffey Jr.          1992      565      565     .361     .535       22   
    11   Troy Glaus               2000      563      563     .404     .604       23   
    12   Frank Thomas             1991      559      559     .453     .553       23   
    13   Gary Sheffield           1992      557      557     .385     .580       23   
    14   Ken Griffey Jr.          1991      548      548     .399     .527       21   
    15   Juan Gonzalez            1993      536      536     .368     .632       23   
    16   Manny Ramirez            1995      484      484     .402     .558       23 
    
    -----------------------
    SS all time who have done it
    
    -----------------------
    
    AT BATS                       YEAR     AB       AB       OBA      SLG      AGE    
    1    Alex Rodriguez           1998      686      686     .360     .560       22   
    2    Cal Ripken               1983      663      663     .371     .517       22   
    3    Cal Ripken               1984      641      641     .374     .510       23   
    4    Alex Rodriguez           1996      601      601     .414     .631       20   
    5    Joe Cronin               1930      587      587     .422     .513       23   
    6    Arky Vaughan             1934      558      558     .431     .511       22   
    7    Arky Vaughan             1935      499      499     .491     .607       23   
    ------------------------------------
    
    2nd basemen
    
    NONE
    
    ------------------------------------
    
    3rd basemen
    
    AT BATS                       YEAR     AB       AB       OBA      SLG      AGE    
    1    Freddy Lindstrom         1928      646      646     .383     .511       22   
    2    Woody English            1930      638      638     .430     .511       23   
    3    Dick Allen               1964      632      632     .382     .557       22   
    4    Dick Allen               1965      619      619     .375     .494       23   
    5    Scott Rolen              1998      601      601     .391     .532       23   
    6    Albert Pujols            2001      590      590     .403     .610       21   
    7    Eddie Mathews            1953      579      579     .406     .627       21   
    8    Harlond Clift            1936      576      576     .424     .514       23   
    9    Troy Glaus               2000      563      563     .404     .604       23   
    10   Gary Sheffield           1992      557      557     .385     .580       23   
    11   Eddie Mathews            1955      499      499     .413     .601       23   
    12   Eddie Mathews            1954      476      476     .423     .603       22   
    13   Jimmie Foxx              1928      400      400     .416     .548       20  
    
    ---------------------------------
    
    Jeter at 22
    
    DEREK JETER
    
    1996
    
    YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS
    1996 Yankees      22  157   582  104  183  25   6  10   1.72   78   48  102   14   7  .314  .430  .370  .800 
         TOTALS           157   582  104  183  25   6  10   1.72   78   48  102   14   7  .314  .430  .370  .800 
         LG AVERAGE             562   87  156  30   3  19   3.47   82   61  100   10   5  .277  .445  .350  .795 
         POS AVERAGE            548   79  147  28   4  13   2.45   72   45   86   11   5  .268  .407  .325  .732 
    
    YEAR TEAM          RC   RCAA  RCAP OWP   RC/G   TB   EBH  ISO   SEC  BPA  IBB HBP SAC  SF GIDP OUTS  PA   POS
    1996 Yankees        93    3   19  .511   5.79  250   41  .115  .210  .465   1   9   6   9  13   434   654  SS
         TOTALS         93    3   19  .511   5.79  250   41  .115  .210  .465   1   9   6   9  13   434   654 
         LG AVERAGE     89    0    0  .500   5.55  250   52  .168  .287  .487   4   5   4   5  14   434   638 
         POS AVERAGE    73  -16    0  .404   4.55  223   45  .139  .233  .440   1   4   9   6  13   434   611 
    
    
    Tejada
    
    ------------------------------
    
    MIGUEL TEJADA
    
    1998
    
    YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS
    1998 A's          22  105   365   53   85  20   1  11   3.01   45   28   86    5   6  .233  .384  .298  .681 
         TOTALS           105   365   53   85  20   1  11   3.01   45   28   86    5   6  .233  .384  .298  .681 
         LG AVERAGE             388   56  105  21   2  12   3.20   53   38   71    8   4  .272  .432  .340  .773 
         POS AVERAGE            384   54  105  19   3   8   2.21   44   25   62   11   5  .273  .403  .323  .726 
    
    YEAR TEAM          RC   RCAA  RCAP OWP   RC/G   TB   EBH  ISO   SEC  BPA  IBB HBP SAC  SF GIDP OUTS  PA   POS
    1998 A's            40  -13   -6  .373   3.59  140   32  .151  .225  .412   0   7   4   3   8   301   407  SS
         TOTALS         40  -13   -6  .373   3.59  140   32  .151  .225  .412   0   7   4   3   8   301   407 
         LG AVERAGE     58    0    0  .500   5.18  168   35  .161  .271  .474   2   4   3   4   9   301   436 
         POS AVERAGE    50   -7    0  .433   4.50  155   30  .130  .211  .436   0   4   6   3   9   301   422 
    
    -----------------------
    
    Nomar at 22
    
    NOMAR GARCIAPARRA
    
    1996
    
    YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS
    1996 Redsox       22   24    87   11   21   2   3   4   4.60   16    4   14    5   0  .241  .471  .272  .743 
         TOTALS            24    87   11   21   2   3   4   4.60   16    4   14    5   0  .241  .471  .272  .743 
         LG AVERAGE              88   14   24   5   0   3   3.47   13   10   16    2   1  .277  .445  .350  .795 
         POS AVERAGE             86   12   23   4   1   2   2.45   11    7   14    2   1  .268  .407  .325  .732 
    
    YEAR TEAM          RC   RCAA  RCAP OWP   RC/G   TB   EBH  ISO   SEC  BPA  IBB HBP SAC  SF GIDP OUTS  PA   POS
    1996 Redsox         12   -3    0  .397   4.76   41    9  .230  .333  .543   0   0   1   1   0    68    93  SS
         TOTALS         12   -3    0  .397   4.76   41    9  .230  .333  .543   0   0   1   1   0    68    93 
         LG AVERAGE     14    0    0  .500   5.55   39    8  .168  .287  .487   1   1   1   1   2    68   100 
         POS AVERAGE    11   -3    0  .404   4.55   35    7  .139  .233  .440   0   1   1   1   2    68    96 
    
    
    -----------------------
    
    Barry at 23
    
    BARRY LARKIN
    
    1987
    
    YEAR TEAM         AGE G    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR   HR%   RBI  BB   SO   SB   CS  AVG   SLG  OBA   OPS
    1987 Reds         23  125   439   64  107  16   2  12   2.73   43   36   52   21   6  .244  .371  .306  .678 
         TOTALS           125   439   64  107  16   2  12   2.73   43   36   52   21   6  .244  .371  .306  .678 
         LG AVERAGE             455   62  122  22   3  13   2.91   59   47   74   14   6  .269  .419  .339  .758 
         POS AVERAGE            442   51  108  19   4   6   1.33   41   36   70   11   4  .245  .344  .304  .648 
    
    YEAR TEAM          RC   RCAA  RCAP OWP   RC/G   TB   EBH  ISO   SEC  BPA  IBB HBP SAC  SF GIDP OUTS  PA   POS
    1987 Reds           52  -16    3  .372   3.97  163   30  .128  .244  .437   3   5   5   3   8   354   488  SS
         TOTALS         52  -16    3  .372   3.97  163   30  .128  .244  .437   3   5   5   3   8   354   488 
         LG AVERAGE     66    0    0  .500   5.01  191   39  .150  .271  .469   6   2   3   3  10   354   511 
         POS AVERAGE    47  -19    0  .343   3.57  152   29  .099  .195  .391   5   3   5   2   9   354   487 
    
    
    


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