Let me just say this. When I heard that the Reds signed Paul Wilson, I was very happy. When I heard it was a 2 yr 4M deal, I wasn't thrilled, but could live with it. Haynes is the guy he has been frequently compared to and that is 500K less than Haynes will make. When I heard it will be 500K this year and 3.5M next year, I absolutely love this pickup.
Time value of money alone knocks 100K off this deal (which BTW pays for at least part of those Rule 5 pickups) which is a big deal to us. But more importantly, ML minimum is 300K. This guy will make only 200K more than a Jose Acevedo would have. That is a wise use of money.
And top it off, the 3.5M is paid out in a year when, a) we lose the 7.5M/yr we pay Larkin, b) likely lose the Stinnett (1.15M option - 250K buyout) contract and the White (3.5M option - 250k buyout) contract, and c) have been in GAB a year and have full revenues calculated into our budget. Of course, we will have arb guys as always, but I also have to think that all the nontenders this year will continue to correct the market, even through arbitration. So, I think we may be in fairly good shape budget wise next year even if Wilson flops. If he puts up ace numbers or maybe even middling Haynesesque numbers, we will have a relative bargain and definitely wouldn't have any problem dealing him at that point if we needed to.
Bottom line, great signing IMO. A little risky, but also shouldn't prevent us from making any other moves this year.