To be fair, others years in his career he's been over 7 k/9. Really only pitched two strong months last year--April and July. September was positively abysmal...ERA over 12.
To be fair, others years in his career he's been over 7 k/9. Really only pitched two strong months last year--April and July. September was positively abysmal...ERA over 12.
If he has a good first half and the Reds don't he will be gone for a low level prospect or two to a team like Boston. I like the signing though.
I didn't check every month, but his August looked pretty solid as well. He was pitching 7-8 innings every start in August.
He paid for it in September though.
Wilson is not only a fine pitcher, he might become the Reds ace this season. Doubt that? Let's look at the possibilities:
1. Wilson had the worst defense in the game behind him the past two years yet put up modest numbers overall. How many fly balls became doubles because Ben Grieve couldn't get to them fast enough? How many sinking liners were stopped in front of by LF Greg Vaughn? How about that range of SS Chris Gomez? Close play at the plate with weak-armed Randy Winn throwing is sure to score a run.
2. Wilson had the worst bullpen in major league baseball behind him the past two years. How many wins became losses or no-decisions after he left the game? How many blown saves? How many times did Hal MacRae leave him in an inning or two too long because of that pen? How many runs resulted?
3. Wilson's Second Half ERA in 2001 was the best in the American League at 2.13. How many Reds pitchers have done that for a 1/2 season? How many could? He was one of the best pitchers in the game at that time. Just because he pitched for a horrible team meant he got little respect.
4. Wilson is a gamer. Fighting back through all those arm woes has made him a tough guy. Gullett has always done very well with tough guys willing to learn. Add a couple mph to his fastball and he's a legitimate ace.
5. He's only making $500,000! Guys, next year is just that. Next year. If he stinks, so be it. But if he's good, he's a bargain. An extreme bargain. And Cincinnati should have some cash to play with, as Larkin, Sullivan, White, and Stinnett will be off the books, not to mention possible free agent departure in starters Dempster and Graves.
Am I saying he's as good as Colon or Penny or Vasquez? Hardly. Wilson is merely a serviceable major league pitcher with an upside. He's had success in the past. He's on the right side of 30. He battles for everything he's got. And he's cheap.
By the All Star game, Wilson will be among the better acquisitions in the game for 2003 and all of the posters here (well, most of the posters, as some seem impossible to please) will be pleased with his production.
Graves and four #4 pitchers.
Yea I know, Dempster has potential and I like him on the staff, but not as a #2 as he pitched like a 5 last year. I would have liked that they signed Wilson and let Haynes go and taken the 2 draft picks in return (assuming they could pay to sign them.)
Great points Biittner pill. I can testify to the truth of points 1 and 2.
Stick to your guns.
Can someone please explain this to me, because I am working on minimal sleep with no caffeine. This contract is guaranteed, not an option. Given that Gabe White just had the best season of his career, makes less than what Wilson will make in year 2, and we have no decent offers at all on the table (except for a straight up trade for Rey Ordonez), why would we not be on the hook for Paul Wilson?? Gabe White is perhaps a bad example because he is a reliever, but other teams are finding it to be absolutely impossible to move any sort of mediocre salary in this new market. I just don't understand this. I see no means for him to become tradeable unless he posts an ERA substantially under 4. Given Wilson's arm troubles in the past, I don't know why we made this a 2 year deal rather than 1. That is my major beef with it.Whoever observed that we'll never see that second year is right, unless he stinks.
The thing is, it does nothing to address our glaring weakness, which is a top of the rotation starter. We are a rotation full of 4s and 5s along with a converted closer (I agree Dempster is better than this and I was very much behind this acquisition). We are aceless in a division full of aces, and that just doesn't bode well. I am sure Wilson has heart and has pitched well for stretches, and wasn't exactly on a superstar team. But he is not filling the hole that has gone untouched for the past 10 years, and that disturbs me.
I see what you mean lgj. The guaranteed money doesn't bother me though because I believe Wilson has top-of-the-rotation stuff if the Reds know how to cultivate it. It's also possible that the market will open up next year. If Wilson has a so-so year, the Reds may be able to trade him next year (a la todd walker). If he has a great year they'll keep him. If he stinks, you're right that they're on the hook for $3.5 mil. But frankly, I'm more worried about other guaranteed players not pulling their weight than I am Wilson (e.g. Haynes, Dempster, Sullivan).
There's risk in any guaranteed contract, but I think you and most of the other critics on this thread are underestimating the malaise in Tampa's Hal McRae regime. It was just an impossible place for pitchers to succeed last year. I swear, sometimes the guy would pout and leave his guys in to take a beating. The upside outweighs the risk IMO.
Stick to your guns.
Copied this from Tampa Bay's board on Fan Home.
From: DRays Fan in Va
Re: Paul Wilson gets 2-year deal with the Reds.
Of all the guys we have let go this off-season, he's the guy I am going to miss most. Wish him the best of luck. He should do well there. BTW, have you all seen pics of the new ballpark there in Cincy. Looks like a great park."
Who knows, '03 just might turn out to be a good year afterall!
It's not a bad signing. It does show off JimBo's chief strength - bottom fishing.
Nothing to get overly thrilled about either. I think Jimmy Haynes is a fair comparison for him.
Still doesn't make this better than a third place club.
Two quick thoughts: The Reds have a lot of similar pitchers in their starting rotation (righty location guys). They could really use some different looks (e.g. righty power pitcher or southpaw of any stripe).
Also, the preponderence of RHPs puts a lot of pressure on Bruce Chen as a middle man. IMO, Lance Davis should get a long, hard look this spring as another lefty long man.
I find this disturbing. How does someone not from metro Tampa decide to be a Tampa Bay Devil Rays fan? Are these the same sort of people who engage in love letter/pen pal relationships with death row inmates?Originally posted by Barbarossa
From: DRays Fan in Va
And, hypothetically, if this person once lived in Tampa and then moved to Virginia, WHY would he/she remain a Devil Rays fan? What have they ever done to warrant loyalty of any kind?
Stick to your guns.
I like this deal, too. I hope the dollars aren't too high but I don't think they will turn out to be. He's a pitcher and his last name isn't Castro so I doubt that we overpaid him much.
Wilson could turn out very nicely. No, I know he isn't the ace we want but he's not the black hole of moundsville, either as some posters suggested here. He probably wore down in those last 5 starts and I'm betting he's BELOW a 3.80 era when season ends.
I do agree with M2 that a lot of pressure is going to be on Chen and Davis to pitch effectively and balance all the righthanders, whether they start or relieve.
Pretty much we replaced Elmer Dessens and his production last year with Paul Wilson.
If Wilson has a season that Elmer had last year especially in the ERA department, the signing is a steal.
Two final thoughts on this transaction.
1. Brian Reith will be claimed by some team. If he slips all the way to the Red Sox, I expect them to take him. They have a lot of open slots on their 40 man roster, and they have a dearth of upper level pitching prospects. I'd much rather have the Reds hang onto Brian than two of the Rule 5 guys they drafted. (The two other than Prokopec.) Those guys will likely be offered back to their original teams, and the Reds will have lost Reith for nothing.
2. Wilson's '03 salary of $500,000 will serve as a benchmark for second-year arbitration-eligible pitchers. I think Willy is the only Reds pitcher that fits in that category, but this is an example of how the non-tendering process can help to bring down arbitration awards.
"People that frequent Internet forums resemble the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest!" - C. J. Cregg, The West Wing
This trade doesn't bother me one bit. With nothing appearing to be happening on the Expo or Marlin front with any of their pitchers, it was possibly a wise move. What was this FO suppose to do...wait around see?
Is there a gamble involved? Heck yes. But no more than what we took when we signed Haynes going into last season for the same yearly amount of $500,000.
I agree with alot of the points that Biitner lists. I don't know about the "ace" part; but with this team, it doesn't take much to earn that label. I mean c'mon.... some listed Dessens as our "ace". What does that say?
That 3.5 Mil could prove to be a bargain in 2004.
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