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Thread: Paul Wilson signs a 2 yr contract with the Reds

  1. #76
    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Chip R
    If he's any good, he'll be gone.
    That's a big IF though. It's a gamble for sure.

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  3. #77
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Originally posted by letsgojunior
    I have looked at his stats, and numbers such as K/9 inning and BB/9 inning, both of which are not affected by defense, are lower and higher than the American League average.
    Good point, and his HR/9 innings are also not good and also not affected by defense. But they ARE affected by manager misuse.

    Check out his pitch counts from July 3 through August 3 (in chronological order):

    119, 113, 124, 112, 123, 123

    I guess that since the D'Rays were deeply entrenched in the pennant race, McRae felt the need to push a guy with a recent history of arm trouble.

    As long as he didn't do any permanent damage, and as long as Boone doesn't revert to his KC ways, I expect Wilson's ratio's to improve to better than the league average.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  4. #78
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    I wouldn't worry to much about that $3.5M for 2004 till 2004. If he's any good, he'll be gone.
    That may take the award for the most cynical, yet accurate comment I've read on this forum.

  5. #79
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    Originally posted by cincinnati chili
    Check out his pitch counts from July 3 through August 3 (in chronological order):

    119, 113, 124, 112, 123, 123

    And we are wondering why the guy collapsed and added 1 run onto his ERA over the last month or so? Ugh.

  6. #80
    A Little to the Left Redsfaithful's Avatar
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    I don't think that's very accurate. 3.5 million for a decent starting pitcher is a bargain, and Bowden realizes that, whether anyone wants to give him that credit or not.

    I understand the cynicism, but the Reds have quite a lot of payroll coming off the books in 2004. To say that they would trade Paul Wilson if he turns out to be good, simply because he's going to make 3.5 million dollars is wrong.
    We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
    --Oscar Wilde

  7. #81
    Time is the Revelator. LvJ's Avatar
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    Good deal, IMO. As others said, alittle risky, but hey - it's a bargin. I like Paul Wilson. He can pitch, and with Gullett, lets just say, the next Jimmy Haynes.
    Hide your power alleys; Hide your wife

  8. #82
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    As usual i got here later and there is no way im going to read all these pages.... But im going to add my opinion to the mix (sorry if i repeat what any1 says)

    I personally think it was a pretty good pick-up. For the money in the second year No. But I think he has a WAY WAY BETTER chance to become a winning pitcher here than he does with TB.

    Just consider the offense he had in TB to what he now has backing him up to put runs on the board. I think he's going to be the next Haynes... Come in with every1 saying "what the heck" and end the year saying "what a steal"

    Our worst offensive player will be the catcher of course. But I think our offensive is whats going to have to carry the Reds.
    Its not a good thing considering pitching wins, but the Reds have decent pitching with Great hitting... That could equal out to be pretty nice. As long as every1 stays healthy this team could be pretty dang good. But i think we should add one more pitcher.
    Maybe Suppan ,Finley, or Valdes.

    A.
    Graves
    Dempster
    Haynes
    Wilson
    Finley

    B.
    Graves
    Dempster
    Haynes
    Wilson
    Suppan

    C.
    Graves
    Dempster
    Haynes
    Wilson
    Valdes

    D.
    Graves
    Dempster
    Haynes
    Wilson
    Reistma

    I didnt put the pitchers in any order but tell me what you think.

  9. #83
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Originally posted by EmtyRedsFan


    Just consider the offense he had in TB to what he now has backing him up to put runs on the board.
    Tampa Bay 2002 Runs Scored/Game per Wilson start:
    4.37

    Reds total Runs/Game 2002: 4.37


    PSR

  10. #84
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    Cant forget what a healty Griffey, Kearns, and what Larson will bring to the table....

  11. #85
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    Healthy....... only if i could spell

  12. #86
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    I love stats...

    What was TB Runs scored per game overall?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  13. #87
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Originally posted by TRF
    I love stats...

    What was TB Runs scored per game overall?

    4.18 Runs/Game

  14. #88
    Member SirFelixCat's Avatar
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    ERF...personally, I like Acevedo in the #5 hole...gives us a solid starting 5. Granted no overwhelming #1 or #2 for that matter, but solid top to bottom...either way, our rotation looks a ton better than it did last year going into ST...and didn't we hold onto first for a few days with that? Not to mention, could we have hit ANY worse with RISP??? I really (call it Red colored glasses or not, but...) I like our team as is. Sure I'd love to see Colon or Vasquez or even Penny for the right price, but we sure could be worse off heading into ST, no?


    Go REDS!!!

  15. #89
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    I love stats...
    Talk about shooting the messenger. All Raisor did was point out that last year Wilson got pretty much the same run support in Tampa that he would have in Cincinnati.

    In other words, if he pitches the same, there's no reason to believe he'll blossom into a 20-game winner.

  16. #90
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Statheads only

    Fair warning,
    The following may make those of you that don't like stats heads explode:

    Here's Wilson's SNW/SNL numbers:
    (Also included is a little primer on what the hell SNW/SNL numbers are)

    he Support-Neutral statistics evaluate starting pitchers by measuring the probability that each outing will lead to the starter getting a win (SNW), the starter getting a loss (SNL), and the starter's team winning (SNVA), given league average support from the offense and the bullpen.

    About SNWLby Michael Wolverton Please feel free to email Michael with questions or comments at mjw@erg.sri.com.

    The Support-Neutral pitching stats are designed to measure the value of a start in terms of how much it adds or subtracts from the team's chance of winning. Using situational scoring tables and some basic laws of probability, I calculate the probabilities that a pitcher's start will lead to a W or an L for him, as well as a win or a loss for his team. When totaled over all of a pitcher's starts, that gives us the three SN measures:
    Support-Neutral Wins and Losses (SNW/SNL) -- a starter's expected W/L record, given the way he pitched in each game and assuming that he had league-average support from his offense and his bullpen.

    Support-Neutral Value Added (SNVA) -- the number of games the starter is worth to an average team in the standings, over (or under) what a league average starter is worth. Each of the three numbers is calculated separately for each individual start, and then summed to get seasonal totals. Looking at a starter's performance game-by-game like this removes distortions that can be introduced by looking at cumulative run prevention (e.g., ERA or Thorn and Palmer's Adjusted Pitching Runs). In particular, the SN stats recognize that a pitcher can only cost his team a single game in a single start, so it puts a limit on how much a single bad outing (e.g., 2 IP, 11 R) can hurt his season/career value.

    This year there was a small but important change to the way the stats are calculated. Previously, the SN stats have been calculated based only on the number of innings pitched and the number of runs charged to a starter for each game. Now, the input will include the state of the bases when he leaves the game. So, for example, if a starter gets yanked with 2 outs in the 7th after 3 runs have scored with runners on first and third, and his reliever allows both runners to score, the SN stats will be calculated based on:

    6 full innings, 3 runs in, runners on 1st and 3rd with 2 outs.

    rather than the old way:

    6 full innings, 2 outs, 5 runs allowed.

    This new method provides results which are more "support-neutral", in that a starter's numbers will not be skewed by really good or really bad bullpen support in the inning he leaves the game.

    Paul Wilson
    GS: 30
    IP: 193.7
    R: 113
    SNW: 10.3
    SNL: 12.0
    W: 6
    L: 12
    RA: 5.25
    APW: -1.0
    SNVA: -0.9
    SNWAR: 0.8


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