Introducing the New 2B of the Reds: Aaron Boone

[Raisor]

Ozzie's three best years were in 85, 86, and 87.

In those years, the league averages in OBP and SLG were:
85-327/386
86-330/392
87-341/423

Tejada's three best years have been 00, 01, and 02.

In those years, the league averages in OBP and SLG were:
00-342/435
01-329/421
02-337/432

If you average those out, there's virtually no difference in OBP and a 8.2% increase in SLG.

If you adjust Ozzie's numbers for today, you get:

30, 1985-.355/.364 719
31, 1986-.376/.336 712
32, 1987-.392/.386 778
three year average 374/362 736

vs Tejada
24, 2000-.349/.479 828
25, 2001-.326/476 801
26, 2002-.354/508 861
three year average 343/488 831

OK, now something else to consider is that Ozzie's best years were during what everyone and their mother considers a player's "prime", while Tejada hasn't hit his yet.

[redrum]

Originally posted by Raisor
OK, now something else to consider is that Ozzie's best years were during what everyone and their mother considers a player's "prime", while Tejada hasn't hit his yet.

Well that might depend on whether his name really is Migel Tejada.

The next wave of instant aging is upon us:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports...7padnotes.html

[Greenhills Pioneer]

Moving Boone to 2b is a no brainer IMO.

I have been advocating this for the longest time, at least since November 30, and probably earlier than that.

Why is it that a lot of you advocate moving Boone to SS, but are not in favor of him moving to 2b, a less demanding position?

If Boone stays at 3b, what does the rest of the infield look like?

- Lopez ss/2b, Larkin 2b/ss, Casey?

In my opinion this could be a horrible offensive infield. With Lopez being so young and Larkin coming off a horrible season, combined with LaRue, this could be one of the worst hitting lineups in baseball even if you have Griffey, Dunn and Kearns. With Lopez, Larkin and LaRue, you could have three automatic outs. Can that kind of lineup be successful, even with great defense?

In regards to offense verses defense, I prefer the best combination of both, but one can make up for the other to a point. Larson's offense and price tag make up for his defense IMO.

[TRF]

I think the Tejada in 2002 probably saw pitching comparable to Ozzie. I'll never be able to prove that, but it's my theory.

I'll disprove it for you

1984 National League ERA 3.59
1985 National League ERA 3.59
1986 National League ERA 3.72

2000 American League ERA 4.91
2001 American League ERA 4.47
2002 American League ERA 4.46


not even close. Tejada gets to feast on pitcher that wouldn't eve make the show in the mid '80's. Rick Helling wouldn't have kept a job as a mop-up guy.

Raisor, I still say they are different animals. Ozzie is a leadoff hitter, and Tejada is the rbi guy in a position that still primarily is weak offensively. If they are on the same team at the same time, Tejada changes position. Ozzies defense combined with his ability to get on base, plus steal bases is IMO more valuable. It doesn't mean Tejada isn't a good player. It means he is more replaceable IMO.

[Raisor]

Originally posted by TRF

Raisor, I still say they are different animals. Ozzie is a leadoff hitter, and Tejada is the rbi guy in a position that still primarily is weak offensively. If they are on the same team at the same time, Tejada changes position. Ozzies defense combined with his ability to get on base, plus steal bases is IMO more valuable. It doesn't mean Tejada isn't a good player. It means he is more replaceable IMO.

If I had to choose between a leadoff hitter (and wasn't it Vince Coleman leading off for the Cards during most of that time?) and a middle of the order guy, and they play the same position (especially if it's shortstop or second) then I take the guy that would hit in the middle of the lineup.

Having a shortstop that hits like a 1B or an OFer is an incredible advantage.

PSR

[Raisor]

Originally posted by TRF
I'll disprove it for you

1984 National League ERA 3.59
1985 National League ERA 3.59
1986 National League ERA 3.72

2000 American League ERA 4.91
2001 American League ERA 4.47
2002 American League ERA 4.46


not even close. Tejada gets to feast on pitcher that wouldn't eve make the show in the mid '80's. Rick Helling wouldn't have kept a job as a mop-up guy.

But are the ERA's lower then because the pitchers were better, or are the ERA's higher now because the HITTERS are better now?

[Red Leader]

Originally posted by Raisor
But are the ERA's lower then because the pitchers were better, or are the ERA's higher now because the HITTERS are better now?

I think the pitchers were better then because everyone played low OPS players like Ozzie Smith, et al, instead of having OPS monsters like Tejada in their lineups because those types of "super athletes" weren't introduced yet. Either you were quick and played good defense, or you were a hulk and hit the ball hard, not both like today.

[TRF]

It was Coleman. you are right. But look at teams with tons of power, bad defense and no speed historically. Now in the last 20 years tell me how many of them won the world series. I think the last one was 1989.

My point is yes these Billy Beane/Bill James OPS teams can give you a winning season, even take you to the playoffs.

but pitching and defense win it all.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally posted by TRF
I'll disprove it for you

1984 National League ERA 3.59
1985 National League ERA 3.59
1986 National League ERA 3.72

2000 American League ERA 4.91
2001 American League ERA 4.47
2002 American League ERA 4.46

Sorry. But this proves diddly squat. It shows that more runs are being scored, but doesn't show whether it's because of:

1) external factors (small ballparks, juiced balls, umpires taking away the strike zone from pitchers not named Glavine)
2) the pitchers are worse
3) the hitters are better

You are pretty certain it's all #2. I think there's more to #3 than most people think. Watch espn classic sometime when they show games from the 70s and 80s, and pay attention to the size of the hitters. Nobody is weight training. MOre guys are out of shape. Few of the hitters are working the count. And not all the pitchers are as great as you remember.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally posted by Raisor
OK, now something else to consider is that Ozzie's best years were during what everyone and their mother considers a player's "prime", while Tejada hasn't hit his yet.

So am I the only one who thinks Tejada may have already hit his prime?

I know he's 26, but he had a lot of hits fall in last year. If he keeps up the free swinging, pitchers have got to make adjustments eventually.

I seriously doubt he'll break 200 hits ever again.

[TRF]

I think the pitchers were better then because everyone played low OPS players like Ozzie Smith, et al, instead of having OPS monsters like Tejada in their lineups because those types of "super athletes" weren't introduced yet. Either you were quick and played good defense, or you were a hulk and hit the ball hard, not both like today.

And then came Eric Davis...


You don't have both today. except for ARod. With the diluted pitching of today how would a guy like Pedro Guerrero hit. He OPS'd .999 in 1985 against much better pitching league wide.

[TRF]

No I'm convinced more jobs means a dilution of talent. It means guys pitching that wouldn't have jobs at the major league level. It also means that while facing AZ my teams has to see Johnson and Schilling, but it also got a chance to face 3 scrubs starting.

And today it means Joey Hamilton can still get a job. I don't think the pitchers from the '80's are better athletes or better pitchers individually but over all, yeah. BTW Wrigley was still Wrigley in the '80's too. Not every park was the Astrodome.

[Red Leader]

Originally posted by TRF
And then came Eric Davis...


You don't have both today. except for ARod. With the diluted pitching of today how would a guy like Pedro Guerrero hit. He OPS'd .999 in 1985 against much better pitching league wide.

I agree with you on Eric Davis, but what do you mean you don't have both today? I'm talking about all hitters not just SS, but if you want to look at SS, what about Jeter, Tejada, Nomar, A-Rod, heck even Edgar Renteria is more of a slugger than the Wizard was and still has decent speed and quickness. The guys I'm talking about are: Vlad, Bobby Abreu, Magglio Ordonez.....even Adam Dunn to some extent, guys that draw walks, steal bases, and hit the ball REAL hard.

[Raisor]

Originally posted by TRF
No I'm convinced more jobs means a dilution of talent. It means guys pitching that wouldn't have jobs at the major league level. .

But don't forget, the talent pool is also getting bigger, not only here in the states, but the entire world.

PSR

[westofyou]

With the diluted pitching of today how would a guy like Pedro Guerrero hit. He OPS'd .999 in 1985 against much better pitching league wide.

Pedro OPS .283 above the league average for the eighth best number from 1980-1990

Add the seasons from 1991-2002 and he slides from 9th best to 53rd.

Of course for his career his OPS was only .133 above average, so that .999 season was kind of a fluke.

Here's a list of the guys with 3000 ab's who had OPS's .100 over the league average from 1980-1990

CAREER
1980-1990
OPS >= .100 vs. the league average

OPS                             OPS      OPS    
1    Mike Schmidt               .925     .207   
2    George Brett               .912     .186   
3    Wade Boggs                 .908     .181   
4    Will Clark                 .883     .162   
5    Jack Clark                 .880     .162   
6    Darryl Strawberry          .878     .159   
7    Eddie Murray               .877     .151   
8    Pedro Guerrero             .875     .157   
9    Dwight Evans               .871     .145   
10   Don Mattingly              .867     .139   
11   Kent Hrbek                 .862     .134   
12   Alvin Davis                .859     .131   
13   Rickey Henderson           .854     .129   
14   Dave Winfield              .845     .118   
15   Dale Murphy                .842     .124   
16   Robin Yount                .838     .112   
17   Barry Bonds                .837     .116   
18   Andre Dawson               .835     .117   
19   Leon Durham                .831     .111   
20   Bob Horner                 .828     .113   
21   Tim Raines                 .828     .110   
22   Kirk Gibson                .825     .100   
23   Keith Hernandez            .820     .102   
24   Tony Gwynn                 .819     .100   

and here is teh same list for 1991-2002 But we'll push it to .135 above to account for expansion, new parks, bad pitching ect... (whatever is your flavor)

CAREER
1991-2002
OPS >= .135 vs. the league average

OPS                             OPS      OPS    
1    Barry Bonds               1.104     .345   
2    Mark McGwire              1.043     .278   
3    Todd Helton               1.032     .252   
4    Manny Ramirez             1.010     .233   
5    Frank Thomas              1.000     .237   
6    Larry Walker               .994     .236   
7    Brian Giles                .986     .205   
8    Jim Thome                  .982     .209   
9    Edgar Martinez             .974     .209   
10   Vladimir Guerrero          .973     .195   
11   Jason Giambi               .968     .191   
12   Jeff Bagwell               .965     .205   
13   Ken Griffey Jr.            .965     .199   
14   Mike Piazza                .964     .194   
15   Alex Rodriguez             .958     .182   
16   Gary Sheffield             .955     .192   
17   Chipper Jones              .949     .175   
18   Albert Belle               .945     .180   
19   Carlos Delgado             .943     .166   
20   Nomar Garciaparra          .937     .162   
21   Bobby Abreu                .931     .152   
22   Rafael Palmeiro            .926     .163   
23   Sammy Sosa                 .918     .152   
24   Juan Gonzalez              .912     .149   
25   Mo Vaughn                  .910     .140   
26   Ellis Burks                .902     .143