Outstanding post, Old Red Guard, as usual.
Outstanding post, Old Red Guard, as usual.
"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
~ Mark Twain
DittoOriginally posted by RFS62
Outstanding post, Old Red Guard, as usual.
Will trade this space for a #1 starter.
Just as a side note, the White Sox GM made it pretty clear that he would accept either Casey or Konerko for Cameron. McKeon and Bowden decided they liked Casey better.
As for ORG's recent statements, I totally agree. Here is a list of the teams Bowden has traded with in the last three baseball seasons (from Doc Scott's Tradecard):
1. Yankees (3)
2. Boston (2)
3. Colorado (3)
4. Indians (2)
5. Anaheim (1)
6. Toronto (1)
7. KC (1)
8. Cubs (1)
9. Texas (1)
10. Detroit (2)
11. Pitt (1)
12. Philly (1)
13. Montreal (1)
14. Marlins (1)
15. Mets (1)
Not too many STL or Sea on there.
I think the mistake folks make is viewing each trade in isolation rather than evaluating the total effect of two-plus years of activity. You can parse it to death, but the end result of Bowden's moves beginning with the Gabe White-Manny Aybar swap is that the Reds have less talent in the majors AND less talent in the minors.
Compare it to his work in '97 and '98 and he falls flat on his face.
So, I agree with FCB for the most part here.
That said, there is one trade FCB listed that I'd like to vociferously disagree with - the Konerko-Cameron deal.
Since that deal Paul Konerko has a .356 OB, .499 SLG, 328 R, 104 HR, 381 RBI.
Cameron has a .361 OB, .457 SLG, 372 R, 90 HR, 339 RBI.
Now let's park adjust Cameron to match Konerko's condidtions. Konerko was .356, .499 for a .855 OPS. Cameron becomes .372, .472 for a . 844 OPS. In other words, they're pretty much the same hitter, Cameron being slightly better at getting on base, Konerko having slightly more power.
Yet Cameron will swipe you 30+ bases a year and play Gold Glove defense at a critical defensive position. If I weren't feeling lazy I'd compare Cameron to the production of the average CF and Konerko to the production of the average 1B and then you'd probably get to see the truly formidable qualitative difference between them.
But, far from being a bad move, Cameron for Konerko was a great trade. They gave up quality, but they most certainly got quality back. And the Reds would have been wise to put someone other Cameron in the Jr. deal (and they did have that option - Reese, Dawkins, Reyes).
But we don't know the whole story here.Aren't the other GM a low down sleezy scoundral too? Seems to me Bowden has traded for a couple of pitchers that went to the DL quickly afterwards. Neagle, Etherton, Silva...
My memory is foggy, but didn't even us fans know that Etherton was hurt when we got him? If not, perhaps the Anahiem GM told Bowden that Etherton was hurt, and since the asking price was only Carcares (who wasn't in our plans anyhow), Bowden took the chance that Etherton could get better. In my opinion, this was a good trade. Whenever you can trade something useless for something potentially useful, that is a good trade. It just didn't work out. Etherton never got better.
I know that Silva had a history of injury problems when we got him. Again, it was a gamble.
As far as Neagle goes, we will never know. But I'm guessing Atlanta told Bowden everything they knew. Maybe Atl did tell him everything he knew. In any event, we got plenty of good usage out of Neagle.
Remember when Bowden claimed Tim Scott off Waivers from SF and raised holy h*ll because SF didn't tell him he was hurt. Bowden demanded his 50k be refunded, etc. I'm sure if Atlanta (or anyone else) would've withheld info or lied, Bowden would've been furious and let them have it in the press, just like he did with Tim Scott.. who was a freaking waiver claim for crying out loud.. I see no need why the Giants were obligated to give Bowden a full medical disclosure on a waiver claim.
And on top of that, I have never heard the Atlanta GM being accused of anything underhanded. He's one of the most respected GMs in the league. Unlike Bowden, who has had other GMs accuse him of being a liar.
I think the younger/newer GMs are willing to deal with Bowden because they can get good deals (Walker/Dessens) and haven't been burned yet. I'm sure a new GM is kind of cocky and thinks no one is going to pull the wool over them.
What about Bowden and the Shaw deal? His buddy LaSorda obviously didn't know all the rules of the game, yet Bowden certainly let him believe that Shaw was locked up cheap for LA. Certainly didn't mention about how Shaw could demand a trade.
Bowden basically took advantage of the trust from their friendship. Instead Bowden laughed at him, and publicly said "He didn't ask (about Shaw being able to demand a trade)". Whether that's ok or sleazy is debatable, but after a few stunts like that, I would not be surprised if Bowden's trading partners are limited.
As I said before, after Bowden offered Nevin a bonus to accept the trade, Towers immediately became suspicious and was relieved the Jr trade fell through.. That's what happens when you get a reputation for lying.
This is probably the most damning thing to Bowden. If he had been winning trades, how come neither the minors or majors have been improving.You can parse it to death, but the end result of Bowden's moves beginning with the Gabe White-Manny Aybar swap is that the Reds have less talent in the majors AND less talent in the minors.
A bigger question is: Are we better off than we were in 1997?
That was the beginning of the grand 2003 plan. The team sacrificed 6 seasons to supposedly build a juggernaut for 2003.
Instead, our farm system is ranked 26th, and our rotation is thin.
We do have some good position players, but for how long?
It seems like we have been emulating the Expos, not the Jacob's field Indians model that we were promised. You know, every year dump the highest paid couple of players. But we fail to restock the farm like Montreal has.
Don't get me wrong, I really liked that trade when it happened. I thought Etherton was going to be one of the surprises that year for the Reds pitching (he was a surprise for me, just not how I touted him to be). In fact, I made several posts that year that people should not overlook Etherton. I don't recall having prior knowledge about his injury. Then last year I thought he was going to be healthy enough to be the forgotten one and surprise people again. I'm not going to say anything this year, because I am starting to feel like a jinx to this guy.My memory is foggy, but didn't even us fans know that Etherton was hurt when we got him? If not, perhaps the Anahiem GM told Bowden that Etherton was hurt, and since the asking price was only Carcares (who wasn't in our plans anyhow), Bowden took the chance that Etherton could get better. In my opinion, this was a good trade. Whenever you can trade something useless for something potentially useful, that is a good trade. It just didn't work out. Etherton never got better.
But don't you remember how much Bowden was touting this guy in the off season after he got him and at the beginning of spring training? I don't think Bowden had a clue he was injured goods. Should he have? I think a medical exam before the trade was completed would have told the story, but maybe not. Perhaps he did know and thought it was worth a gamble for the 24 yr old, single A, rhp Ben Shaffar, who he got in the Tucker trade.I know that Silva had a history of injury problems when we got him. Again, it was a gamble.
To me the Neagle situation was just like the Williamson situation. Bowden suspected that Williamson was a game away from being on the DL as well as Atlanta suspected that Neagle was on his way. Did either have prior official medical knowledge, maybe not. I was not and will not say that I was unhappy about the trade to get Neagle. It was disheartening to see Neagle need medical help so quickly though. Would a medical exam have shown Neagle's problem before the trade was consumated. It should have, since they found it so quickly in the spring training medical exam. Would that have made a difference in the trade? Maybe the trade would have still gone through, but it may have affected how many or what calibre players were sent to the Braves.As far as Neagle goes, we will never know. But I'm guessing Atlanta told Bowden everything they knew. Maybe Atl did tell him everything he knew. In any event, we got plenty of good usage out of Neagle.
Trading for players is like buying a used car. You should have them checked out before you buy, in my opinion. If you did have them checked out beforehand, and the problem arises that quickly that you didn't know about, then perhaps you need a new mechanic or doctor. If you didn't have them checked out beforehand, then you need to look in the mirror and blame the person you see. I just don't see Bowden as any worse than any other GM in this situation. They're all used car salesman. Now his mouth and his people skills compared to other GM's is another situation.
Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.
MAybe my memory was wrong on Etherton. But I was not surprised to find out he was injured. That deal seemed too good to be true. To trade a nobody for a pitcher with a decent rookie season?
I do recall Silva being hurt (at least historically), but again, since we gave up zero to get him, it was a good risk.
Bowden always touts his new acquisions out the wazoo, so I ignore Bowden's post trade hype. I mean, Chris Booker was supposed to be the next Lee Smith, but I'm not holding my breath.
I recall Mike Neu being hyped, but then Bowden doesn't even protect him on Rule V.
I chalk up Silva and Etherton to bowden taking a chance on a hurt guy. And I don't disagree with these risks. I don't think the other GMs lied to him. And I think if they did lie to Bowden, he would've made a big stink about it.
If I recall, Neagle only missed about 6-8 weeks? Is that right? It seemed like Neagle was healthy for 1.5 of the 2 seasons he was here. That's not too shabby.
Falls City - You're right, we should expect more than three good seasons (I say three because we were in first when the strike hit in '94, and we tied for a playoff spot in '99) in ten years. I just personally feel he's done the best with what he has.
As for the Doc Scott remark, I didn't mean it that way, I just wondered if you realized how some of the trades connected (Konerko leading to Junior being the most obvious). Don't take offense to that, I value everyone's opinion!
ORG, I'm twenty one, and I do believe that in a business such as baseball there's not really much point in taking it easy on the opposition. Crowing about it in the media if you "win" a trade, yeah I don't respect that either, but if Bowden can take another GM for all he's worth then I don't have a problem with that. I'd much rather have an unsavory GM and win then have a polite, goodhearted businessman and lose. But I would also rather have a polite goodhearted businessman and win.
We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.