Who is Redszone's #6 prospect?

[dougdirt]

But this is supposed to be your #6 prospect, KC. Is a no-hit, good-glove SS really that high on the list or is it that he's needed so badly that posters are overrating him?

I obviously think it's the latter.

Lets pump the brakes some on calling Cozart a no hit guy.

Year	Age	 	Team	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	HBP	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	22	A	Dayton	201	184	28	44	7	2	2	18	2	11	36		.239	.284	.332	616
2008	23	A	Dayton	458	414	56	116	20	6	14	49	10	24	75	3	.280	.328	.459	787
2009	24	AA	Carolina	542	463	72	122	29	2	10	59	10	63	88	10	.263	.360	.400	760

His 2007 is really weighing him down. He also noted that during that season he really needed to learn how to use his legs in his swing more because he was 'all arms' prior to that. The results have been much better in the two years since then. He has showed decent pop and a strong plate approach (in 2009). To me, he doesn't seem to be the hitter you are making him out to be by calling him a no hit shortstop. Given his peripherals if he can go 30 doubles/15 HR, which I think he can.... we are talking about a guy who projects to be a .265/.345/.415 hitter with an above average glove at shortstop. That is pretty darn valuable don't you think?

[dougdirt]

Janish OPSed 776 in High A once upon a time too.

Just sayin'.

And Adam Dunn was a .300 hitter in the minor leagues too.... but its about projection, not what you have done.

[tbball10]

i went with heisey. he just puts up numbers everywhere he is, and he is killing the AFL. he has solid tools and seems to me like he is one of those goes who is going to succeed no matter where he is. hopefully he sees cincy soon.

[Mario-Rijo]

And Adam Dunn was a .300 hitter in the minor leagues too.... but its about projection, not what you have done.

Tough for some to project when we aren't privy to the info you are Doug. I had no idea about Cozart using his legs more at some point. I know that's your business so you can't just go giving us information that you could hypothetically charge for so I won't ask for it but clearly you likely have knowledge of things about every player that could probably help us if we knew to more accurately rank these guys.

[dougdirt]

Tough for some to project when we aren't privy to the info you are Doug. I had no idea about Cozart using his legs more at some point. I know that's your business so you can't just go giving us information that you could hypothetically charge for so I won't ask for it but clearly you likely have knowledge of things about every player that could probably help us if we knew to more accurately rank these guys.

I got that info from an interview in the DDN. I think most of the information needed to project a player is out there if everyone is willing to look for it and knows what to look for in the numbers. Sure, you will always miss some guys because they just get it or lose it... but offensively its about power, walk and strikeout rates is what you need in order to reasonably project a guy. Figuring out where those things fall take a little more than guessing, but I think we have a general idea of where most guys will fall in.

[Kc61]

A few guys who are falling away on the list but deserve mention:

Sam Lecure had a full season at AAA and had a 1.30 WHIP, averaged 7.85 Ks per nine innings, and 2.76 walks. He allowed 17 homers, and like Maloney has fly ball tendencies, but he could easily see time with the Reds next year. He should get on these lists.

Jordan Smith was (i think) number 13 on the BA Reds list last year. He missed a chunk of this season hurt, and I don't know how serious it is. He didn't do as well as Wood at AA, but he's also a missing person in all this. Again, not saying he's top ten material, but he's still in the organization with promise. Throws ground balls, doesn't walk guys.

Finally, there's Lotzkar and Hillenbrand. I don't know if either pitched at all this year, don't know their status exactly, but they were very promising and very young pitchers. Not sure the Reds have written them off, they should be kept in mind.

[mdccclxix]

I know Bob Miller specifically mentioned Jordan Smith as a player he thought Reds fans would see soon in Cincinnati. This was earlier this year.

[dougdirt]

I know Bob Miller specifically mentioned Jordan Smith as a player he thought Reds fans would see soon in Cincinnati. This was earlier this year.

Smith is an interesting guy. He has a fastball in the 91-94 range and can hit 95 and also has an above average slider. Lots of groundballs. Yet he seems to really struggle to miss bats. With the injury that wasn't supposed to be serious leading to him missing a few months it at least gives me some pause.

[Kc61]

Smith is an interesting guy. He has a fastball in the 91-94 range and can hit 95 and also has an above average slider. Lots of groundballs. Yet he seems to really struggle to miss bats. With the injury that wasn't supposed to be serious leading to him missing a few months it at least gives me some pause.

Sure, agree. My point is just that sometimes these lists focus on the "flavor of the month." The guys who did well this past year and seem RIGHT NOW most poised for success.

Example. Last year, Valaika was a top five guy. Had a down year, now he's not top ten. Which is the true Valaika?

So we need to keep in mind the longer term possibilities for guys in the organization, even some who had difficulties or injuries this year. Doesn't really matter where they rank on a list. But they still are around, still have ability, and could turn out better than some others. Jordan Smith is an example.

That's the only point I'm making.

[dougdirt]

Sure, agree. My point is just that sometimes these lists focus on the "flavor of the month." The guys who did well this past year and seem RIGHT NOW most poised for success.

Example. Last year, Valaika was a top five guy. Had a down year, now he's not top ten. Which is the true Valaika?

So we need to keep in mind the longer term prospects of guys in the organization, even some who had difficulties this year. Doesn't really matter where they rank. But they still are around, still have ability, and could turn out better than some others.

That's the only point I'm making.

Valaika is an interesting issue, but more goes into his ranking than 'down year'. Last year the Reds were saying he could stick at SS. This year they were saying he wasn't a shortstop.

[Kc61]

Valaika is an interesting issue, but more goes into his ranking than 'down year'. Last year the Reds were saying he could stick at SS. This year they were saying he wasn't a shortstop.

Thought he played SS all year at AAA, no?

[dougdirt]

Thought he played SS all year at AAA, no?

Not all of the year. He actually moved to 2B, but then injuries to others sent him back to SS. Rick Sweet was quoted as saying Valaika wasn't viewed as a shortstop by the organization this year.

[mace]

A few guys who are falling away on the list but deserve mention:

Sam Lecure had a full season at AAA and had a 1.30 WHIP, averaged 7.85 Ks per nine innings, and 2.76 walks. He allowed 17 homers, and like Maloney has fly ball tendencies, but he could easily see time with the Reds next year. He should get on these lists.

According to Rick Sweet, Lecure turned his season around when he started charting pitches for Justin Lehr. He saw Lehr succeeding with the same four pitches he throws, and their subsequent conversations were of great benefit. When Lehr was called to Cincinnati, Lecure struggled again until he was reminded of what he'd learned.

[GOYA]

LeCure's injury was the point at which his performance deteriorated.

[Highlifeman21]

I'm not sold on Wood as much as others, so I went with the safe choice, which I felt was Chris Heisey.

Curious as to why you think Heisey's the safe choice?

His MiLB numbers aren't remotely impressive.

I felt Wood was the safe choice due to upside.