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Thread: BCS Selection

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    BCS Selection

    Not a Bearcats fan, but I'm intrigued at their potential match-ups. I do have an incredible amount of respect for the coaching job of Brian Kelly. If he sticks around (which I keep hearing he'll be on the first flight out of town if a national program comes calling), the sky is the limit for UC. Certainly they're on the verge of dominating the conference, and while I don't expect them in the near future to compete toe-to-toe in the state with OSU for recruits, I think regionally, Kelly could really be a nuisance to the Buckeyes in the Southwest portion.

    In fact, on a side note, I'm hearing Maty Mauk, the sensational sophomore QB from Kenton (and younger brother of Ben), might be a strong early lean to Kelly - even if the Buckeyes were to go after him (and even if Kelly went somewhere else).

    That aside, Cincinnati might get a real true test of their program this January.

    Here are how things would look if things ended today (rough estimate, of course)...

    Automatic bids:

    Big East (Cincinnati)
    ACC (Georgia Tech)
    Big Ten (Iowa)
    SEC (Florida or Alabama)
    Big 12 (Texas)
    Pac-10 (Oregon)
    Non-BCS (TCU)

    That leaves three at-large bids to come from a pool of:

    Pittsburgh
    Virginia Tech
    Penn State or Ohio State
    Oklahoma State
    Alabama or Florida
    Boise State or Utah
    USC

    LSU could not be a possibility as a conference can have no more than two bids.

    Selection process:

    Iowa and Oregon go to the Rose Bowl. Georgia Tech goes to the Orange Bowl. Florida goes to the Sugar Bowl and Texas goes to the Fiesta Bowl.

    Then, the BCS Championship game selects. They get No. 1 vs. No. 2, obviously. That would be (as of today) Florida vs. Texas (I'm assuming Texas passes Alabama and we know one of Florida or Alabama will lose anyhow).

    So those bowls then replace their teams by order of ranking.

    The Sugar would replace Florida. This is easy. They'd pick Alabama in this scenario. The Fiesta replaces Texas. This is not as obvious, but I believe it's a decent bet they go with USC, taking one of the at-large spots away.

    Then, the rotation this year goes: Orange - Fiesta - Sugar.

    The Orange Bowl has left to choose from: TCU, Cincinnati or an at-large selection. Because of the ACC, we can rule out Virginia Tech. Pittsburgh would not likely be an attractive option. Oklahoma State, without Dez Bryant and getting whacked tonight, probably is out. Of these teams, the Orange likely goes with Penn State or Cincinnati. The Nittany Lions travel pretty well and have a good Orange Bowl history. Cincinnati would obviously be attractive as an undefeated team. I could see this going either way, but I think the Orange goes with the money draw here and picks the Nitt's.

    This leaves the Fiesta with two options: Cincinnati or TCU to play USC. My guess: if the Bearcats keep winning, an undefeated BCS team is more attractive, despite TCU's closer proximity. I might be misreading what the Fiesta Bowl would do here, but I believe it would be the 'Cats.

    This leaves TCU for Sugar Bowl/SEC fodder.

    This means:

    Florida vs. Texas
    Oregon vs. Iowa
    USC vs. Cincinnati
    Alabama vs. TCU
    Ga. Tech vs. Penn State

    Should Ohio State beat Penn State, Iowa and Michigan, the Buckeyes would slide into the Rose Bowl with Iowa likely grabbing the Orange Bowl bid. If Penn State beats Ohio State and Ohio State beats Iowa, it's Penn State that goes to the Rose, with Iowa to the Orange.

    I'm actually hoping this is how it plays out. Though it's possible Cincinnati would face the ACC winner (presumed to be Tech), I would rather see them against USC in the Fiesta.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #2
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    Re: BCS Selection

    As a UC fan, if the National Championship is out of the question, then my preference for remaining BCS Bowl games would be the Fiesta Bowl. FWIW, Fiesta Bowl reps have already been visiting Nippert during home games this season. The Sugar Bowl would be my second choice, and it goes without saying that the Rose Bowl is virtually impossible due to the conference obligations.

    As a fan who'd likely travel to the game, the Orange Bowl would be my least BCS Bowl preference. For one, I went there last season, and secondly ... Dolphin Stadium (or Landshark Stadium or whatever it's called now) down in Miami is a pure dump.

    First thing is first, though ... UC has four games remaining to win, including a tough road game in Pitt on December 5th.
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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    As a UC fan, if the National Championship is out of the question, then my preference for remaining BCS Bowl games would be the Fiesta Bowl. FWIW, Fiesta Bowl reps have already been visiting Nippert during home games this season. The Sugar Bowl would be my second choice, and it goes without saying that the Rose Bowl is virtually impossible due to the conference obligations.

    As a fan who'd likely travel to the game, the Orange Bowl would be my least BCS Bowl preference. For one, I went there last season, and secondly ... Dolphin Stadium (or Landshark Stadium or whatever it's called now) down in Miami is a pure dump.

    First thing is first, though ... UC has four games remaining to win, including a tough road game in Pitt on December 5th.
    No doubt Cincinnati has to take care of business. I think it's safe to say that it would be the Orange or Fiesta if they win out. The Rose is for all practical purposes, impossible (even if Oregon or Iowa snuck into the BCS, they wouldn't be on the replacement list). And they're not likely to be passed up by both the Orange and Fiesta, so the Sugar is likely out.

    Even if Texas falls, it seems they're not going to sniff the Championship game unless something radical happens. Though I don't agree with it, TCU seems to be getting more love nationally, and Oregon would likely leapfrog Cincinnati even if they remain undefeated.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: BCS Selection

    I'd love to see UC play USC if they can't make the National Championship game. I hate the BCS process, but I will say that there are some very exciting matchups to be had.

    FWIW, I don't think BK goes anywhere this offseason. I keep hearing he likes it at UC and it would have to be one of a couple programs to pull him away. He'd rather build a new program than take over a "National Program." He has a lot more control that he can get at a lot of other powerhouse programs. He has a short list of programs he would go to headed by Notre Dame. There are very few programs with easier paths to the BCS games also. A lot of the leaving talk comes more from national media.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by SeeinRed View Post
    I'd love to see UC play USC if they can't make the National Championship game. I hate the BCS process, but I will say that there are some very exciting matchups to be had.

    FWIW, I don't think BK goes anywhere this offseason. I keep hearing he likes it at UC and it would have to be one of a couple programs to pull him away. He'd rather build a new program than take over a "National Program." He has a lot more control that he can get at a lot of other powerhouse programs. He has a short list of programs he would go to headed by Notre Dame. There are very few programs with easier paths to the BCS games also. A lot of the leaving talk comes more from national media.
    I will disagree with you on Kelly. People close to him have commented that he would be very willing to leave (not that he doesn't like Cincinnati). I don't think he'll go just anywhere in a BCS conference, but it's not just a short list that would pull him away.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    I will disagree with you on Kelly. People close to him have commented that he would be very willing to leave (not that he doesn't like Cincinnati). I don't think he'll go just anywhere in a BCS conference, but it's not just a short list that would pull him away.

    Again, nobody knows until something happens, but I hear the exact opposite from some close sources. He won't just run for the money. He did after all turn down the Washington job last year.


    You have to believe that Iowa will lose and fall in the BCS eventually, although they have won thus far so who knows. Texas seems to be able to sail through the rest of its schedule, but its still hard to go undefeated. Should be fun to watch going down the stretch. I didn't think UC would jump both Boise State and TCU in one week, but the BCS is still very fickle at this point in the season. UC should stay ahead of them with thier schedule as long as they keep winning. Looks like a 5 team race going down the stretch because Iowa is certainly in the race as long as they keep winning.

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    Re: BCS Selection

    Boise has to be given a good look seeing as how they beat Oregon and now the Ducks look like world beaters. UC has a tough road ahead. In fact I'm guessing they'll be underdogs vs Pitt

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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Boise has to be given a good look seeing as how they beat Oregon and now the Ducks look like world beaters. UC has a tough road ahead. In fact I'm guessing they'll be underdogs vs Pitt
    Without Pike i could see this. But with Pike i do not see us as underdogs and if we are its only because its on the road
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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Boise has to be given a good look seeing as how they beat Oregon and now the Ducks look like world beaters. UC has a tough road ahead. In fact I'm guessing they'll be underdogs vs Pitt

    To be honest, I almost hope UC is an underdog to Pitt. Pitt scares me and if BK can get a little more motivation going in that wouldn't hurt my feelings at all.

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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by SeeinRed View Post
    Again, nobody knows until something happens, but I hear the exact opposite from some close sources. He won't just run for the money. He did after all turn down the Washington job last year.
    I know we've had this discussion before, but I'm still not buying it.

    Listening to a talk radio show yesterday, the host was talking about just this. I think you had already mentioned Kelly's interest in Notre Dame. I'm guessing this job may be open after this season. If so, and Kelly doesn't get it, this guy mentioned rumors that Urban Meyer would have interest in it. If he goes to Notre Dame, do you really think that Kelly would have no interest in the Florida job? I'm sure there would probably be interest on their part.

    I can't help but always think of Thad Matta when talking about the possibility of Kelly leaving UC.

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    Re: BCS Selection

    I don't follow UC football but am intrigued by their success of late. Will an undefeated UC get into the NC game if there is only 1 other BCS conference team unbeaten? Cause frankly, that would be cool.

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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
    I know we've had this discussion before, but I'm still not buying it.

    Listening to a talk radio show yesterday, the host was talking about just this. I think you had already mentioned Kelly's interest in Notre Dame. I'm guessing this job may be open after this season. If so, and Kelly doesn't get it, this guy mentioned rumors that Urban Meyer would have interest in it. If he goes to Notre Dame, do you really think that Kelly would have no interest in the Florida job? I'm sure there would probably be interest on their part.

    I can't help but always think of Thad Matta when talking about the possibility of Kelly leaving UC.
    If Boston College or Notre Dame ever came calling, Kelly would be gone before the other end of the line heard dial tone. Anything else is pure speculation.

    He's in a very unique spot right now -- he's at a place with no football tradition or history whatsoever (apologies to Sid Gillman) that can be a national championship contender as soon as this year. If he stays next year, he can be expected to command a pre-season Top-25 ranking (especially given what Collaros has shown in his 2 starts this year), which puts him in prime-position to challenge again next year.

    He's got a choice to make, and I think he understands it very well: He can go to a school like Notre Dame or Florida and have access to the top of everything in college football (and the expecations that go along with it), or he can stay at UC without some of the nicer amenities, build the program, and be the guy they name the football stadium after when he retires.

    Just listening to his interviews, I think this year has brought that choice into focus for him (with the Heisman buzz Pike attracted pre-injury and the talks of a national title shot). Before this year, I was 90% he leaves, 10% he stays. Now I'm down to 60% he leaves, 40% he stays.
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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by SeeinRed View Post
    Again, nobody knows until something happens, but I hear the exact opposite from some close sources. He won't just run for the money. He did after all turn down the Washington job last year.


    You have to believe that Iowa will lose and fall in the BCS eventually, although they have won thus far so who knows. Texas seems to be able to sail through the rest of its schedule, but its still hard to go undefeated. Should be fun to watch going down the stretch. I didn't think UC would jump both Boise State and TCU in one week, but the BCS is still very fickle at this point in the season. UC should stay ahead of them with thier schedule as long as they keep winning. Looks like a 5 team race going down the stretch because Iowa is certainly in the race as long as they keep winning.
    Most all that you hear is just posturing. He did not turn down the Washington job, because he was never offered it. Sarkisian was Washington's main man after the flirtation with Mike Leach didn't work out. The reason you hear he turned it down is because it puts him in higher demand and gives him more leverage within the program.

    Now let me make it clear, Kelly likes Cincinnati a lot. It's not like he wants to take the next flight out of town. But he's a master of keeping his name alive and bantered about for jobs, and there's a reason it's happening - he wants it to.

    Trust me on this. While he's probably going to be a little more selective now than he would have last year, Cincinnati will have a hard time keeping him around long term.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Most all that you hear is just posturing.

    Most of what I hear isn't just posturing, trust me. Sorry to have started this conversation, but I don't want to hijack the tread so I'll leave it at that. This conversation is better suited for the UC Football thread.

    About the BCS, this would be a great year to start a playoff. I think the teams are a lot closer than most believe and it would create a lot of great games. I know it would never happen, but could you imagine the matchups you could have with the top 16 teams.

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    Re: BCS Selection

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    He's got a choice to make, and I think he understands it very well: He can go to a school like Notre Dame or Florida and have access to the top of everything in college football (and the expecations that go along with it), or he can stay at UC without some of the nicer amenities, build the program, and be the guy they name the football stadium after when he retires.
    That sounds great, in a fairy-tale sort of way, but how often does this actually happen in this day and age of college athletics? It's always the old same song and dance with coaches, they always come out and profess their commitment to their current program and and say things like they can't foresee a scenario that would persuade them to leave. Then, a few months down the road, they've packed their bags and left.

    I don't know Kelly, maybe he really does come from a different mold. Maybe he is not your typical college coach. If so, and he stays at UC and does exactly what you say he may, then I'll gain a whole new level of respect for him. The college game needs coaches like that.

    I'm just trying to look at it from an outside perspective while considering the reality of college athletics in today's world.


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