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Thread: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

  1. #16
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    Horst had some trouble with leaving the ball up. But overall he had a good year on a very bad team. I still think he has a chance, assuming last season did not do too much damage. This is where I really differ from the fans who say that winning in the minors is not important. Putting your players in a productive culture is absolutely a huge part of player development. We all look at the numbers of the Sarasota players from '09 but are we taking into account how hard it is to play on a terrible team in front of 200 fans a night, when a pitcher has so much pressure not just to pitch well, but to basically throw a shutout or lose?

    Partch has a big league arm and scouts like him but he gets rattled easily and it leads to big innings for the opposition. Not sure if he has the capicity to go from a thrower to a pitcher. Jury still out.

    As I mentioned earlier, Martinez is the hardest thrower in the system at about 97 but has not been effective. Velocity can be a bit overrated. Fairel throwing 87 was 100 times the pitcher that Martinez was throwing 97.

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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post

    Didn't realize Partch threw that hard. He had some excellent stretches this year and appears to be on the rise.
    Partch can touch 96

  4. #18
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    Speaking of Junior Martinez, why is he still in the system? That's kind of a rhetorical question since we all know the answer, but I think it's about time the Reds moved on.

  5. #19
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Speaking of Junior Martinez, why is he still in the system? That's kind of a rhetorical question since we all know the answer, but I think it's about time the Reds moved on.
    Because guys who throw that hard don't grow on trees and you never know when he can figure something out and change things around big time.

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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    Just to give an idea of how different people, often very credible people, can have different perspectives, you may find this interesting. Last season, a member of the player development staff (not saying if it was a coach, rover, or administrator) told me that he rated Martinez as the third best pitching prospect in the entire Reds organization. The same day, I asked a scout from another team, "if the Reds cut Martinez loose today, would you recommend to your team that he be signed?" The answer was "absolutely not. He has too far to go mechanically." One person really felt in his heart that Martinez would figure it out and become a major league closer. The other thought he was not even worth taking a chance on.

  7. #21
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    Just to give an idea of how different people, often very credible people, can have different perspectives, you may find this interesting. Last season, a member of the player development staff (not saying if it was a coach, rover, or administrator) told me that he rated Martinez as the third best pitching prospect in the entire Reds organization. The same day, I asked a scout from another team, "if the Reds cut Martinez loose today, would you recommend to your team that he be signed?" The answer was "absolutely not. He has too far to go mechanically." One person really felt in his heart that Martinez would figure it out and become a major league closer. The other thought he was not even worth taking a chance on.
    Let me guess, Mack Jenkins. You don't have to answer that.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    I think next summer, I am going to ask some scouts if the old rule of thumb that 88-90 was major league average was still true. I am guessing not. The radar guns seem to run higher now. When you see a major leaguer throwing 88-90, like an Arroyo, you get the impression that he is a finesse guy. How many major leaguers do you see that don't hit at least 91-92 fairly consistently? I would like to check on that.

  9. #23
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    I think next summer, I am going to ask some scouts if the old rule of thumb that 88-90 was major league average was still true. I am guessing not. The radar guns seem to run higher now. When you see a major leaguer throwing 88-90, like an Arroyo, you get the impression that he is a finesse guy. How many major leaguers do you see that don't hit at least 91-92 fairly consistently? I would like to check on that.
    2008 Pitch F/X data had these average velocities:

    Lefty
    Fastball - 91
    Sinker - 87

    Righty
    Fastball - 92
    Sinker - 90

  10. #24
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    There goes my dream of owning a Shea Snowden bobblehead..

  11. #25
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    This is a very informative thread. Thanks.

    I have two questions. Is it uncommon for pitchers to add 2-3 MPH to their fastball in their early 20's? I would think that a large framed pitcher would have a better shot at doing so.

    Second, I was disappointed in Alex Buchholz's season. I know he was injured early on, and then there is always the Sarasota factor. Still, there was little improvement during the last month of the season when I would have expected that he would be figuring the league out. Can you comment on any issues affecting his progress?

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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    Not common for pitchers to add significant velocity in the post-steroid era, but it does happen. Klinker did it, and Enerio Del Rosario added even more. He went from a soft-tosser to a fairly hard thrower in one season. I think in his case, a lot of things could have contributed related to physical conditioning and nutrition. He is from the poorest area of the Dominican and was extremely slender in '08.

    Not sure about Buchholz. It may have been too big a jump for him. That was not a good situation in Sarasota this season.

    To expand on my point earlier, having a winning culture in the minor leagues is imperative. Based on being closely connected to minor league baseball for over 20 years, I am convinced of this more than ever. If I look at a farm system, the first thing I am going to look at is the ages of the players. Do they have teams stacked with players who are mostly the appropriate age for that league? The second thing I would look at is the records of the clubs. Then I would look at individual players. Developing a winning culture does many things. Players are excited to get to work when they arrive at the ballpark in the early afternoon. They develop a killer instinct. They develop a non-tolerance for losing rather than an acceptance for losing. The 140 game season doesn't become as grinding and they continue developing for the full five months. They feel good about what they are accomplishing instead of frustration with the team. They learn how to "win" rather than just going out and playing nine innings of baseball. And on top of all that, it is a heck of a lot easier to play well when the guys around you are playing well.

    What the Reds had last year at Sarasota, Dayton, and Billings was partially caused by injuries but it was totally inacceptable from a player development perspective. You just can't let that happen. You have to add some reinforcements. They are not hard to find. I believe the Reds overall system record last year ranked 29th of the 30 clubs, and that included a strong team at Louisville. That is just not going to cut it for a small market team that has to stay a step ahead of the pack with player development and scouting.

    Katz takes a lot of heat for beating the drum over and over on this, and Katz will drive you crazy because he says the same thing over and over, not to mention that his agenda focuses on only one team, but in the final analysis, he is saying this because he sees it and hears it from the managers of the teams he has covered.
    Last edited by redsof72; 11-03-2009 at 09:53 AM.

  13. #27
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    To expand on my point earlier, having a winning culture in the minor leagues is imperative. Based on being closely connected to minor league baseball for over 20 years, I am convinced of this more than ever. If I look at a farm system, the first thing I am going to look at is the ages of the players. Do they have teams stacked with players who are mostly the appropriate age for that league? The second thing I would look at is the records of the clubs. Then I would look at individual players. Developing a winning culture does many things. Players are excited to get to work when they arrive at the ballpark in the early afternoon. They develop a killer instinct. They develop a non-tolerance for losing rather than an acceptance for losing. The 140 game season doesn't become as grinding and they continue developing for the full five months. They feel good about what they are accomplishing instead of frustration with the team. They learn how to "win" rather than just going out and playing nine innings of baseball. And on top of all that, it is a heck of a lot easier to play well when the guys around you are playing well.

    What the Reds had last year at Sarasota, Dayton, and Billings was partially caused by injuries but it was totally inacceptable from a player development perspective. You just can't let that happen. You have to add some reinforcements. They are not hard to find. I believe the Reds overall system record last year ranked 29th of the 30 clubs, and that included a strong team at Louisville. That is just not going to cut it for a small market team that has to stay a step ahead of the pack with player development and scouting.

    Katz takes a lot of heat for beating the drum over and over on this, and Katz will drive you crazy because he says the same thing over and over, not to mention that his agenda focuses on only one team, but in the final analysis, he is saying this because he sees it and hears it from the managers of the teams he has covered.
    Interesting post. There really is a soft middle in the talent pool right now, between what they had at AAA/AA and the GCL. We'll see what kind of effect it has in the next 2-3 years.

    Redsof72, is it your impression that the team has failed in recent drafts, or is it more that there is a "culture" that these players fall victim to?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  14. #28
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    I don't think the culture is to blame for the initial losing but I think it sets in after you start taking your lumps. I think the teams were just seriously short-handed this season in terms of talent, and the bi-product of that is you get a bad team, and then your legitimate prospects like Neftali Soto get caught up in it and their performance falls off.

    While I really like the fact that the Reds have weeded out the predominance of over-aged players that filled the rosters of their affiliates during the Bowden era, I think they went too far. With the Sarasota team, instead of using GCL players who were overmatched or calling up players from Dayton who were clearly not ready, they could have signed a free agent who would have come in and helped the whole team. There are 100 players released out of Double-A at the end of spring training, many of whom would have been stars in the Florida State League. They could have signed a couple of those guys at positions where they did not have a prospect, kept the team strong, and then I flat out guarantee you that Soto hits higher than .248, Horst doesn't go 6-13, 3.25, and Janke has a strong season in Dayton instead of going there and going 0-5.

    On top of all that, when they get to the big leagues, it has not been beaten into their heads that once they get down a couple of runs, they've lost, and they believe they will win those games instead of being sure they will lose.

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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    72, got another question for you, if you don't mind. In the past two years, you've now watched Cozart and Rojas play SS for the Dragons. Those two are considered to be the best infield gloves in the system, along with Janish--and perhaps ahead of Janish. How do you compare them defensively? (And how do they compare to Janish, for that matter?)

  16. #30
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    Re: Reds cut ties with some Minor Leaguers

    Good question. Cozart was two and a half years older in Dayton in 2008 than Rojas was in Dayton in 2009. Both Cozart and Rojas were exceptional defensively in Dayton. I don't think you could clearly place one above the other. However, I was told that Cozart regressed a bit this season in Carolina (he had 23 errors after having 10 in 2008 in Dayton in a little less than a full season). The Cozart I saw was very good, the best in the league. Rojas was also the best in the league and finished with 13 errors in a full season. Neither has an exceptionally strong arm. Both are extemely smooth and consistent. Rojas is a bit flashier. If you asked me to pick between the two, it would be a tough call, but I might have to give a very slight edge to Rojas, just because of the age difference and he is still improving rapidly.

    I think most would tell you that as of this moment, Janish is ahead of either of those guys defensively, which is more a credit to Janish than anything against Cozart or Rojas.


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