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Thread: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

  1. #31
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Dye's already fallen over the cliff Cameron hasn't even noticed yet. Doesn't mean he won't find it any day now, 37 is 37. But I'd imagine the team that signs Cameron will be the one that feels it really needs a CFer badly enough to offer good guaranteed, multi-year, money to him.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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  3. #32
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Cameron strikes me as the kind of guy that would sign with the Reds and then immediately fall into the toilet for the 2010 season.

    But, that makes me more certain he'll be targeted, considering the Reds have been shockingly adept at finding and acquiring players who are about to fall off the cliff.
    The Reds have been shockingly bad at finding guys like Cameron.

    They've been shockingly good at finding guys who are hanging onto the tree roots sticking out halfway down the cliff....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #33
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The Reds have been shockingly bad at finding guys like Cameron.

    They've been shockingly good at finding guys who are hanging onto the tree roots sticking out halfway down the cliff....
    Though Scott Rolen is kind of like the Mike Cameron of third base (presumed on the downhill slope, but in actuality, isn't).

    I'd have no problem picking up Cameron; but I think it would a shame to pick up Cameron and jettison Gomes. I'd prefer having both if possible.

  5. #34
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    How much of those 4 WAR's are due to his defense?
    You ask that like it's a pejorative..... Shame on him for being a plus defender at a premium position.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    He isn't the CF on the Reds coming into 2010, that is Stubbs job. How well does his bat play in LF? How much will it take to sign him? Is he worth the money playing 100 or so games in LF?

    Sure I would much rather have Cameron than Taveras, but I just don't think Cameron comes here for that cheap considering he wont get regular time in CF. The fact that he will be 37 years old opening day 2010 is another reason I stay away from Cameron.
    37 would mean more if his play reflected it and it would take a long contract to sign him. GABP would suit his bat.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #35
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    I'd be OK with signing Cameron. Just not a multi-year deal. He strikes me as the kind of guy who has taken good care of himself. I think the liklihood of him having a productive 2010 is high.

    The Reds have a whole lot of maybes in the OF and nobody they can depend on. They need a CF besides Stubbs. I just can't see them going into 2010 with Taveras on the roster.

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  7. #36
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Baseball games aren't won by how many runs your team scores, they're won by scoring more runs than your opponent. Scoring 8 runs is nice but only so long as the other guy scores 7 or less.
    You still have to be able to score runs. Right now with the every day 8 the Reds trot out there they are above average defensively at CF, RF, 3B, SS, 2B, and maybe 1b. Offensively they either are below average of have question marks at CF, RF, SS, and C. IMO the need for offense is much greater than the need for defense going into the 2010 season.

    If I'm reading my WAR figures correctly, over the last TWO years, Cameron has been worth more than Dye has in his entire career.
    How much of that value is derived from Cameron being an above average defender at a position of value? Cameron won't be needed to play CF for the Reds. He will be needed to play LF, where his defensive skills will be marginalized a little. If I am going to invest somewhere this off season, I would invest more heavily offensively than defensively. The Reds already have an above average defense but a below average offense.

  8. #37
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    You still have to be able to score runs.
    You have to be able to score at least one more run than the opponent. How you get there isn't as important as getting there.

    Right now with the every day 8 the Reds trot out there they are above average defensively at CF, RF, 3B, SS, 2B, and maybe 1b.
    What's wrong with being great defensively? Don't the runs saved count as much as the runs scored?

    The Reds starting pitching was made average by the excellent defense this past year. Without it, the starting pitching would've been amongst the league's worst.

    Offensively they either are below average of have question marks at CF, RF, SS, and C. IMO the need for offense is much greater than the need for defense going into the 2010 season.
    And Cameron gives you both offense that's average or better as well as great defense. Dye _might_ give you above average offense with terrible defense.

    How much of that value is derived from Cameron being an above average defender at a position of value? Cameron won't be needed to play CF for the Reds.
    He might be, Stubbs is no sure thing, Dickerson has had problems with injuries and in my personal Utopia, Willy T plays for the Cubs.

    Cammy can play LF to start the season. If Stubbs struggles and/or if Dickerson gets hurt, well, you have a guy who can cover CF instead of rushing Chris Heisy up to the show or doing something like thrusting Jay Bruce back in there.

    He will be needed to play LF, where his defensive skills will be marginalized a little.
    An outfield of Cameron/Stubbs or Dickerson/Bruce might be the best defense in the league. If Stubbs struggles, then move Cammy over and let Gomes play left.
    If I am going to invest somewhere this off season, I would invest more heavily offensively than defensively. The Reds already have an above average defense but a below average offense.
    Cameron gives the Reds offense and defense. His value is greater than Gomes and Dye.

    Again, I say this is all academic as the Reds will never make this move.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  9. #38
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    You still have to be able to score runs. Right now with the every day 8 the Reds trot out there they are above average defensively at CF, RF, 3B, SS, 2B, and maybe 1b. Offensively they either are below average of have question marks at CF, RF, SS, and C. IMO the need for offense is much greater than the need for defense going into the 2010 season.
    You just made a compelling argument for why Cameron represents a significant upgrade.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    How much of that value is derived from Cameron being an above average defender at a position of value? Cameron won't be needed to play CF for the Reds. He will be needed to play LF, where his defensive skills will be marginalized a little. If I am going to invest somewhere this off season, I would invest more heavily offensively than defensively. The Reds already have an above average defense but a below average offense.
    Again, you're dramatically overstating the impact that playing a corner might have on Cameron's value (even assuming he'd play a corner).

    He would become one of the top 3 defensive corner outfielders in the game. Lets assume he gets old man's disease and only manages to be league average with the bat. He'd still be a three win player (above average). The Reds had only two of those type of guys on their roster last season.

    Will the Reds ultimately sign Cameron? Color me shocked if they even tried. But that doesn't mean that they shouldn't have the idea cross their mind. Certainly they should be looking for that type of player.....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #39
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Again, I say this is all academic as the Reds will never make this move.
    Who do you think will play LF for the Reds next season then? Gomes?

    I agree that Cameron is likely not even on the radar.

  11. #40
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Who do you think will play LF for the Reds next season then? Gomes?

    I agree that Cameron is likely not even on the radar.
    Yeah, I think it will be Gomes.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  12. #41
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Certainly they should be looking for that type of player.....
    That's probably the point I should've made more clearly when I posted this. Although I'd like Cameron, I think the point is the Reds don't have to be looking for "names" to be good, they should be looking...err...finding production.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  13. #42
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Again, you're dramatically overstating the impact that playing a corner might have on Cameron's value (even assuming he'd play a corner).

    He would become one of the top 3 defensive corner outfielders in the game. Lets assume he gets old man's disease and only manages to be league average with the bat. He'd still be a three win player (above average). The Reds had only two of those type of guys on their roster last season.

    Will the Reds ultimately sign Cameron? Color me shocked if they even tried. But that doesn't mean that they shouldn't have the idea cross their mind. Certainly they should be looking for that type of player.....
    Cameron is a good CF bat, how does he compare to a corner OF bat?

    My issue is Cameron provides top notch defense at the CF position. It is something the Reds don't need. They look to be set at CF for the next 5 years with Stubbs, they don't need Cameron's services at CF. That would make him a corner outfielder. In all likelihood, Cameron will want to be paid like a starting CF, which he won't be with the Reds.

    Last year Gomes OPS'd .879, much better than Cameron's .795. Cameron's value is dinged a little bit because he will not be needed to play a prime defensive position. If it were up to me I would look more offensive, sacrificing a little defense, to fill my LF void. To me a 37 year old Cameron isn't an up grade over what Gomes can potentially provide.

  14. #43
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Cameron is a good CF bat, how does he compare to a corner OF bat?
    I'm not sure why it matters because he'd be an above average player.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    My issue is Cameron provides top notch defense at the CF position. It is something the Reds don't need. They look to be set at CF for the next 5 years with Stubbs, they don't need Cameron's services at CF. That would make him a corner outfielder. In all likelihood, Cameron will want to be paid like a starting CF, which he won't be with the Reds.
    The Reds need to improve their offense while maintaining their stellar defensive gains. Cameron fits that bill to a tee.

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Last year Gomes OPS'd .879, much better than Cameron's .795. Cameron's value is dinged a little bit because he will not be needed to play a prime defensive position. If it were up to me I would look more offensive, sacrificing a little defense, to fill my LF void. To me a 37 year old Cameron isn't an up grade over what Gomes can potentially provide.
    Cameron's overall value would be roughly the same in CF or left. he'd lose value for changing position but basically gain it back because he'd now get to be compared to the guys who play his new position.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #44
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    What's wrong with being great defensively? Don't the runs saved count as much as the runs scored?
    No they don't. They count more.... well as long as you buy into the pythag in baseball being accurate.

  16. #45
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Didn't Cameron hate playing corner OF one year he had to do it, though? And almost get killed in a collision with a CFer? Or am I thinking of someone else? I guess it doesn't matter, though, you could always play him in CF if it was a big deal to him and move the other CFer to the corner.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons


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