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Thread: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

  1. #46
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    Didn't Cameron hate playing corner OF one year he had to do it, though? And almost get killed in a collision with a CFer? Or am I thinking of someone else? I guess it doesn't matter, though, you could always play him in CF if it was a big deal to him and move the other CFer to the corner.
    He and Beltran played head pong.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #47
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He and Beltran played head pong.
    Thank you.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  4. #48
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He and Beltran played head pong.
    In 2005 he played 68 games in right for the Mets.

    I know it is a small sample size, but his UZR/150 in RF is 1.9 based on 139 games, compared to his 5.7 UZR/150 in CF. That 1/3 the production.

    We all saw the difficulty Griffey had shifting away from center, and even Dickerson in the few games he played in LF. When you factor in that LF get around 25% less chances than CF, I think it is safe to assume that if which ever CF gets moved to LF will provide at best 2/3 the defensive production that they could produce in CF, and probably closer to half. And when all three candidates get most of their value from their defense, that's a significant loss.

    Again, I would have loved to have had Cameron a few years ago, but he just doesn't make sense for this team, at his current price.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  5. #49
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    In 2005 he played 68 games in right for the Mets.

    I know it is a small sample size, but his UZR/150 in RF is 1.9 based on 139 games, compared to his 5.7 UZR/150 in CF. That 1/3 the production.

    We all saw the difficulty Griffey had shifting away from center, and even Dickerson in the few games he played in LF. When you factor in that LF get around 25% less chances than CF, I think it is safe to assume that if which ever CF gets moved to LF will provide at best 2/3 the defensive production that they could produce in CF, and probably closer to half. And when all three candidates get most of their value from their defense, that's a significant loss.

    Again, I would have loved to have had Cameron a few years ago, but he just doesn't make sense for this team, at his current price.
    I think even at 2/3rds to half his value in LF, Cameron would still produce more than Gomes.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I think even at 2/3rds to half his value in LF, Cameron would still produce more than Gomes.
    Me too. Which is why I am hoping the Reds go for door number three.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  7. #51
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    In 2005 he played 68 games in right for the Mets.

    I know it is a small sample size, but his UZR/150 in RF is 1.9 based on 139 games, compared to his 5.7 UZR/150 in CF. That 1/3 the production.

    We all saw the difficulty Griffey had shifting away from center, and even Dickerson in the few games he played in LF. When you factor in that LF get around 25% less chances than CF, I think it is safe to assume that if which ever CF gets moved to LF will provide at best 2/3 the defensive production that they could produce in CF, and probably closer to half. And when all three candidates get most of their value from their defense, that's a significant loss.

    Again, I would have loved to have had Cameron a few years ago, but he just doesn't make sense for this team, at his current price.
    There is no real reason to believe that Cameron can not play a corner position as well or better than he plays centerfield. In fact, the logical expectation would be to expect him to perform better at a corner.

    As a rule centerfielders increase their defensive value by making the switch based upon historical data.

    Jr struggled because he was done as a fielder. He would've struggled at any position that required a modicum of range.

    Cameron makes perfect sense for the Reds.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #52
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There is no real reason to believe that Cameron can not play a corner position as well or better than he plays centerfield. In fact, the logical expectation would be to expect him to perform better at a corner.

    As a rule centerfielders increase their defensive value by making the switch based upon historical data.

    Jr struggled because he was done as a fielder. He would've struggled at any position that required a modicum of range.

    Cameron makes perfect sense for the Reds.
    Maybe they increase if over time, as they learn it, but there will be a learning curve for whoever is put in LF, which means diminished production for a good part of the season.

    Still, even if Cameron stays the same, and Stubbs or he is as good in LF as they were in CF, it still is not that smart of a move.

    Cameron will get around $10M for next year. That $10M will get the team around 2 wins, which is the best that Cameron can bring as an upgrade over Stubbs/Dickerson (assuming that both are at least league average players next season, which is a safer bet than Cameron being a 4 win player imo). The Reds would be paying around $5M a win, which is the going rate.

    The Reds are not in a position to be paying market value for wins right now, they can't afford it. They need to add around 10 wins and have the money for around 2 of them, if that. They need to be creative with trades, prospects and low cost free agents in order to build a contending team.

    Now if the Reds could get Cameron for around $3M, that would be a perfect fit, but not at what he mostly will get, which is $10M.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  9. #53
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There is no real reason to believe that Cameron can not play a corner position as well or better than he plays centerfield.
    Actually there is one very good logical reason to believe that Cameron can't play the corner as well as CF.

    His own history. In 139 games in RF, almost a full season, he has performed 1/3 as well as he has performed in CF. it's a small sample size, but it is a logical reason.

    And remember part of the point is that one of the two elite CF the Reds would have if they signed him, would have to play LF, and even if they are just as good as they are in CF, there are around 25% less chances in LF as in CF, which means they would have to be 25% better just to stay the same in terms of overall production.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  10. #54
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Actually there is one very good logical reason to believe that Cameron can't play the corner as well as CF.

    His own history. In 139 games in RF, almost a full season, he has performed 1/3 as well as he has performed in CF. it's a small sample size, but it is a logical reason.
    You're drawing that conclusion based upon a sample size that even you acknowledge is deficient. Logical reasons do not extend beyond what the data allows. It's a reason, true. But it's not really a compelling one given the limitations of the data. Whats more its from a season where he gimped along with just about every body part that starts with F being banged up with the exception of his femur.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    And remember part of the point is that one of the two elite CF the Reds would have if they signed him, would have to play LF
    That's not really a bad thing. I'd be satisfied with an outfield of Bruce, Cameron, Stubbs, and Dickerson.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    and even if they are just as good as they are in CF, there are around 25% less chances in LF as in CF, which means they would have to be 25% better just to stay the same in terms of overall production.
    Granted Bay, Lee and perhaps Dunn would give either Cameron or Stubbs a run for their money but my bet would be on the horse either would be riding....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #55
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Maybe they increase if over time, as they learn it, but there will be a learning curve for whoever is put in LF, which means diminished production for a good part of the season.
    The notion that there is a steep learning curve associated with an elite, experienced CFer switching to a corner position is kind of over blown.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Still, even if Cameron stays the same, and Stubbs or he is as good in LF as they were in CF, it still is not that smart of a move.
    Obviously I disagree. Cameron could be worth between 3 to 4 wins in CF. Stubbs/Dickerson could be worth 3 to 4 wins in LF + where ever.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Cameron will get around $10M for next year.
    That is by no means a given.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    The Reds are not in a position to be paying market value for wins right now, they can't afford it. They need to add around 10 wins and have the money for around 2 of them, if that. They need to be creative with trades, prospects and low cost free agents in order to build a contending team.
    This is mostly an academic exercise because it's unlikely the Reds will do anything noteworthy via free agency.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He's been a 4 WAR player in 3 of the last 4 seasons and he's projected to be the same next year. He's not going to require a long term contract.

    The Reds need to load up on all of the pariahs like Cameron that they can get their hands on....

    Bay on the other hand is the prototype for the guy the Reds should get away from as far and as fast as they can...... We're talking strap a rocket on their back fast.... in fact, think of him has the opposite of Cameron (the guy they should be using rocket power to move closer to).
    I really think Cameron's skills will diminish next year...maybe not completely, but significantly.

  13. #57
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    If it's possibly true that the Reds are looking to decrease payroll for 2010, then I doubt you see very little movement, as far as acquisitions, in the off-season.

    Doesn't Bay have a 4 yr offer pending with the Sox?
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  14. #58
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    If it's possibly true that the Reds are looking to decrease payroll for 2010, then I doubt you see very little movement, as far as acquisitions, in the off-season.

    Doesn't Bay have a 4 yr offer pending with the Sox?
    There have been reports of a 4 year/$60-ishM offer from them, there have also been others who believe they're not willing to offer him more than 3 guaranteed years. I tend to trust the sources of the latter(local writers Rob Bradford and Michael Silverman, who usually seem to be in the loop) more than the former(national guys like Gammons and Boras's mouthpiece Heyman), but it's also possible that the truth could be somewhere in the middle, something like 3 years guaranteed with a vesting or mutual 4th year option.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  15. #59
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Not better than Gomes. Nix was a non roster invitee last season. Cameron would come in with a $5M+ dollar deal.
    True, but let's look at this year. After the year Gomes had, isn't he going to cost 2-3 million to bring back? I think EdE is a reasonable comp to what kind of contract he might get. Maybe a little bit less. IIRC, Gomes is up for arbitration.

    To me, it's not a huge deal of whether Stubbs or Cameron plays CF.. Having both of them in the OF gives you a defensive boost. Doesn't make sense to overly-penalize Cameron just because the Reds already have a CF. Sure, it's less valuable to have a plus glove in Lf, but it's still valuable.

    I would jump all over Cameron at one year and 5 million. Much better than resigning Gomes, IMO. Gomes might also fall off a cliff.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  16. #60
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Could the Reds sign Jason Bay...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There is no real reason to believe that Cameron can not play a corner position as well or better than he plays centerfield. In fact, the logical expectation would be to expect him to perform better at a corner.
    .
    Exactly. We can't bring Jr into this as a comparison, because Jr's legs were shot when he moved to the corner.

    Cameron is a great athlete and fielder. He'd have no problem moving over, IMO.

    Even if moving Cameron to LF costs him one win of value, he's still a great player at his projections. His age makes it more likely he won't get a multiyear offer, which is a great fit for the Reds (assuming he wants to play here).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!


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