Should the Reds sign Votto long term?

[Chip R]

Elephant in the room...his bout with depression last year that made him miss a ton of time. I want to see a solid 2010 before ltc.

That's a valid point.

[TheNext44]

I think the window has really passed for the Reds unless Votto agrees to something pretty significantly under market value. Longoria is the best case example, but I imagine it's too late to do that with Votto. Longoria's deal basically mirrors how his salary would escalate normally, except it's all about 50% of what he probably would have earned if he took it one year at a time. Plus, each of his FA years are team options, so they can opt out pretty easily at relatively little cost if he gets seriously injured or flames out.

Longoria
08:$0.5M
09:$0.55M
10:$0.95M
11:$2M (arb year 1)
12:$4.5M (arb year 2)
13:$6M (arb year 3)
14:$7.5M club option ($3M buyout) (FA year 1)
15:$11M club option (FA year 2)
16:$11.5M club option (FA year 3)

Each year closer you get to the guy's free agency and the more of a track record he's built, the bigger that % becomes. For Votto, I think you'd need to offer him something like 75% of fair market value based on reasonable or slightly aggressive production projections. And at the point, the savings you'd gain are probably not worth the risk you assume by guaranteeing him that money. You also should consider the availability of certain types of talent. Votto is an excellent player, but I'm not sure he's irreplaceable. Longoria is a potential HOF 3B in no small part because of his defensive talents. He'd be much harder to replace than Votto. Making a financial commitment when you already have him under control without one doesn't strike me as a particularly smart move for a franchise that needs as much payroll flexibility as possible.

Excellent analysis.

The one point I would make is that salaries are down right now and probably will be down even further after this off season. Right now a win is worth $4.4M if I recall correctly. That is down from what it was just two years ago, when it was closer to $6M a win. I think after this off season, with everyone cutting back, a win could worth as low as $2.5M.

So signing guys long term after this off season could really pan out well if the market bounces back, which history tells us it will. Votto signed at 75% of 2010 value, in 2012 could be Votto signed at 50% of value.

I also think that with Votto's problems last year, he's not as much of a known quantity as you think. He has not played a full season, which should lower his value, and make the long term contract worth it.

So 75%

[Chip R]

I think the window has really passed for the Reds unless Votto agrees to something pretty significantly under market value. Longoria is the best case example, but I imagine it's too late to do that with Votto. Longoria's deal basically mirrors how his salary would escalate normally, except it's all about 50% of what he probably would have earned if he took it one year at a time. Plus, each of his FA years are team options, so they can opt out pretty easily at relatively little cost if he gets seriously injured or flames out.

Longoria
08:$0.5M
09:$0.55M
10:$0.95M
11:$2M (arb year 1)
12:$4.5M (arb year 2)
13:$6M (arb year 3)
14:$7.5M club option ($3M buyout) (FA year 1)
15:$11M club option (FA year 2)
16:$11.5M club option (FA year 3)

That's a great deal for the Rays. I've said for a few years now that some of these clubs should give players deals like that where the money is backloaded after a club option. If you think the player is making too much or he gets hurt, don't pick up the option.

[Jpup]

too early. give him, at least, another year to show he can play a full healthy season.

[Will M]

absolutely yes

[dougdirt]

Not yet. Not only is it to soon given his mental health status, its also a bit early given what you have in the minors that you also need to figure out that involves him directly (either keeping him and moving Alonso, moving him to LF and keeping both, keeping Alonso and figuring out if Frazier/Heisey/Francisco can play LF or any other of the 15 scenarios) that can likely be figured out before the end of 2010.

[bucksfan2]

That's a great deal for the Rays. I've said for a few years now that some of these clubs should give players deals like that where the money is backloaded after a club option. If you think the player is making too much or he gets hurt, don't pick up the option.

The Longoria deal was a huge risk for the Rays as well. IIRC they signed him to that deal only very shortly after he played in his first major league game.

I think the Reds should look at locking up Votto long term within the next season. I would do the same with Bruce in the next 1.5 years as long as he develops. Pitchers are a little more risky, but if Bailey and Cueto are in the long term plans I would look at buying out their arbitration as well. It may be a lot to do, but if those 4 players are in your long term plans, locking them up early makes sense.

[icehole3]

Not yet. Not only is it to soon given his mental health status, its also a bit early given what you have in the minors that you also need to figure out that involves him directly (either keeping him and moving Alonso, moving him to LF and keeping both, keeping Alonso and figuring out if Frazier/Heisey/Francisco can play LF or any other of the 15 scenarios) that can likely be figured out before the end of 2010.

what if declines the move to LF, which I think is something he may do, is that a deal breaker?

[REDREAD]

Correct. But it's almost getting to the point where we have to act like the Pirates and trade every expensive player in order to make ends meet. Granted we're not doing it all at once like they do but it's pretty much the same thing.

I'd rather keep the productive players as long as we possibly can.
Every productive player on the roster is one less hole to fill.
That's why I liked the Rolen trade. Yes, it added payroll, but some of that was offset by Toronto and dumping Weathers/Harriston/etc

IMO, it's not a stretch that we can make it over .500 next year with reasonable health. There are holes, but not overwhelming. It's theoretically possible to add a SS and a decent OF and be a contender in the weak central. Maybe it's not likely, but it's possible.

As soon as we go into Pirate mode.. trading Arroyo and Cordero.. forget about it. It's rare that anyone gives up even average ML ready young players anymore. Look at Cleveland's fire sale this last year. Traded 3 star players (VMartinez, Cliff Lee, and ?) , and only got one ML ready guy in return.. Sorry the specific names are escaping me now.

Nothing wrong with trying to win as many games as possible in 2010 and trying to wake up the slumbering fan base. I don't agree with this notion that unless we have a strong chance to contend, we might as well burn the team to the ground and play rookies. I've seen enough Anderson Machados and Brandon Larsons getting playing time because the team is "rebuilding". I'm tired of that.

[REDREAD]

what if declines the move to LF, which I think is something he may do, is that a deal breaker?

Due to the fact that the Reds have Alonso in the pipeline, I do not sign Votto longterm. He's a great player, but he's a 1b.

With the declining salaries, it just doesn't make sense to hand out a 5 year contract now, just to maybe save a couple of million.

Signing Votto to a longterm contract makes it potentially impossible to trade him.

Look at Lyle Overbay. I think Votto is better than him, but Overbay really been up and down. Toronto gave him a long contract and he's immovable now.

[bucksfan2]

Due to the fact that the Reds have Alonso in the pipeline, I do not sign Votto longterm. He's a great player, but he's a 1b.

With the declining salaries, it just doesn't make sense to hand out a 5 year contract now, just to maybe save a couple of million.

Signing Votto to a longterm contract makes it potentially impossible to trade him.

Look at Lyle Overbay. I think Votto is better than him, but Overbay really been up and down. Toronto gave him a long contract and he's immovable now.

You build your team around great players. Last season Votto proved that he was the real deal, especially with his slump and then bounce back at the end of the season. If Alonso shows that he has the ability to become another great player then you move Votto off to LF.

If you sign Votto to a good, long term deal then it only increases his trade value. FWIW Overbay has never produced a season as good as Votto has in his young career.

[Mario-Rijo]

I'd say yes after next season. I love the guy and expect him to continue to do well but I always have had a rule of waiting and making a guy prove any good season before a LTC. I believe he will but I think he'd be no more expensive if we waited another year so might as well wait.

[nate]

Votto proved that he was the real deal

I like Votto but I don't think he's proven this yet. He's certainly trending toward "real deal" status but I want to see him play 150 (or more) games next year with similar numbers before I say he's the real deal.

[steig]

Elephant in the room...his bout with depression last year that made him miss a ton of time. I want to see a solid 2010 before ltc.

I agree 100% with you. We need to know if this could be a reoccurring issue with Joey before we lock him up to a long term deal. It may be the politically incorrect view but you have to hope things work out best for the Reds and Joey.

[Bumstead]

Not yet. Not only is it to soon given his mental health status, its also a bit early given what you have in the minors that you also need to figure out that involves him directly (either keeping him and moving Alonso, moving him to LF and keeping both, keeping Alonso and figuring out if Frazier/Heisey/Francisco can play LF or any other of the 15 scenarios) that can likely be figured out before the end of 2010.

I think Doug is right on with this post. The front office has to decide what his role will be after 2010 before they offer him something long-term. This should play out during 2010 to the point that they can make that decision.

Bum