Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 46

Thread: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Posts
    4,230

    John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    ... and replaced with a Pod Person who actually has some good ideas, and rational analysis.

    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/200...ips-or-arroyo/

    I know we’re living in a Bengal, Bearcat, prep football world these days. But I went ahead and wrote a Sunday Insider anyway. Here’s a free preview:

    I’d tried to get a hold of Bob Castellini last week. But he was out of the country. You know how absorbent the international cell phone rates are. We’re kidding there, but money is tight in Redsland these days.

    How tight? Only Castellini can answer that. He’s the CEO. The final budget is his call.

    The fact that the Reds pushed a long-time employee like Wilma Mann to retire and aren’t replacing others who leave tells you the club is counting pennies in business in which it takes millions of dollars to win.

    It’s telling that when asked last week if he needed to cut player payroll to balance the budget, general manager Walt Jocketty said “not yet.”

    The implication is that could happen. It probably depends on how season-ticket renewals go. I’m told that early renewals are promising.

    But if that trend doesn’t continue, and the Reds have to slash payroll to make budget, it means they’ll have to trade Brandon Phillips or Bronson Arroyo.

    Here’s my logic on that:

    Let’s say the payroll is going to be $65 million, down from $73.5 million last year. The Reds already have $59.25 million committed to six players for 2010: Aaron Harang ($12.5 million), Francisco Cordero ($12 million), Scott Rolen ($11 million), Bronson Arroyo ($11 million), Brandon Phillips ($6.75 million), Willy Taveras ($4 million) and Arthur Rhodes ($2 million).

    Even if all 18 of the other players on the roster make the $400,000 minimum, they’ll account for $7.2 million. That added up to $66.45 million.

    The Reds aren’t going to trade Rolen – they just got him. Harang’s value is so far down, the Reds would probably have to pay half of his salary just to get another club to take him. Cordero is so expensive, only a handful of teams could afford him. As far as Taveras, do I really have to explain why he’d be hard to trade.

    That leaves Phillips and Arroyo.

    My advice in both cases is don’t do it. One caveat: If the Marlins want to trade Hanley Ramirez for either, do it. But I think trading either for prospects – or even young, unproven big leaguers – would be foolish.

    Sportswriters love to spend owners money under the you’ve-got-to-spend-money-to-make-money premise, which rings pretty hallow coming from guys who never really made money.

    But, in this case, I think you’re risking further alienating the fans over $5.5 or $3.375 million. That’s half of what Arroyo or Phillips will make.

    I’d start the season with both on the roster and see how it goes. If it goes well, the fans will start buying tickets to help balance the budget. If it goes bad, Arroyo and Harang can be moved at the deadline.

    This club is close enough to competing that 2010 could be the year. The Reds were 27-13 over the last 40 games of the season. The addition of Rolen made the club better.

    Homer Bailey was the best pitcher in baseball over the last six weeks of the season (6-1, 1.70 ERA). Johnny Cueto went 3-1 with a 3.63 over his last six starts. He should be better after an offseason of rest.

    Jay Bruce started to live up to his potential after coming back from the broken wrist.

    The Reds have a good bit of talent in minors that is close to big-league ready.

    Of course, it’s easy to make the argument the other way. The Reds have big questions in the leadoff and the second spot in the order. Left field is still a big question mark.

    Drew Stubbs played well after his call-up, but he’s a guy who hit .269 in 1,588 minor league at-bats.

    But, again, if it goes bad, have your fire sale in July. But trading your best starter (Arroyo) or your best all-round player (Phillips), in December makes selling tickets in January very difficult.

    Unless, of course, the Marlins offer Ramirez.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  2. #2
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    31,202

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    A bunch of young players performed when the games no longer mattered? That never happens in Redsland. And neither does banking on those performances carrying over and lasting through 162 game seasons
    “And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith

  3. #3
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    7,441

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    You know how absorbent the international cell phone rates are. We’re kidding there, but money is tight in Redsland these days.
    Absorbent? I think he meant exorbitant (as in very expensive).

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    A bunch of young players performed when the games no longer mattered? That never happens in Redsland. And neither does banking on those performances carrying over and lasting through 162 game seasons
    Yep. Disappointment made easy is counting on small sample sizes to translate over larger time periods.

  4. #4
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    49,393

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Yep. Disappointment made easy is counting on small sample sizes to translate over larger time periods.
    The difference is, it wasn't bad players playing well.... it was just different players playing.

  5. #5
    Member WVRedsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Rainelle, WV
    Posts
    10,526

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The difference is, it wasn't bad players playing well.... it was just different players playing.
    Yes. The last part of the season where the Reds were way over .500 were encouraging to me. Was it meaningless games? No. Janish played an adequate shortstop, albeit without much hitting, but he defense helped. Rolen was a godsend at third. His defense saved runs and hit hitting, though not tremendous, was steady with a solid OBP. Traveras was out and Stubbs was in. Anyway you look at that, it was a win. Gomes, Nix, and others manned the outfield adequately. All this with a pitching staff that was crippled by the loss of Harang and Volquez. Maloney pitched well. Wells was even adequate. And Arroyo was magnificent. I like 2010 and what it brings for the Reds.

  6. #6
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Athens, OH
    Posts
    13,572

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Absorbent? I think he meant exorbitant (as in very expensive).
    Someone must be insisting that Fay use a spell checker for his blog. Apparently it's set on awe toe pie let.
    /r/reds

  7. #7
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Posts
    4,230

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Absorbent? I think he meant exorbitant (as in very expensive).
    Okay, so maybe it is the real Fay after all.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  8. #8
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Houston, Texas
    Posts
    11,563

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Absorbent? I think he meant exorbitant (as in very expensive).
    Hey, we're talkin' Fay here. One mistake/typo...I think he really WAS kidnapped by aliens because that's impressive for Mr. Fay. :O)

  9. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    9,401

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    A bunch of young players performed when the games no longer mattered? That never happens in Redsland. And neither does banking on those performances carrying over and lasting through 162 game seasons
    of course, this ignores the fact that many of the teams the Reds were playing during that time were playing in meaningful games. but, if you want to cherrypick facts, go for it.

  10. #10
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    31,202

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    of course, this ignores the fact that many of the teams the Reds were playing during that time were playing in meaningful games. but, if you want to cherrypick facts, go for it.
    Doesn't change the fact that the Reds' players were playing with a nothing-to-lose mindset; something contending teams don't have the luxury of doing. When the games mattered for the Reds, they were conspicuously ineffective.
    “And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith

  11. #11
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    41,737

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Doesn't change the fact that the Reds' players were playing with a nothing-to-lose mindset; something contending teams don't have the luxury of doing. When the games mattered for the Reds, they were conspicuously ineffective.
    They were unwatchable in July and August and they were close to last place. That's about as out of it as you can get.
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I was wrong
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Chip is right

  12. #12
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Posts
    12,334

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Small budget clubs should not get rid of players who actually perform to the value of their contract unless it's huge money. That's why it seems crazy to me that they'd consider trading Brandon Phillips unless they were made an offer they couldn't refuse.

    Arroyo is a great target to trade if they find a take who will take his entire salary. Harang is another guy worht dangling, but not if they have to pay much of his salary at all.

    But trading away affordable players who actually produce is just dumb for an organization like the Reds. Phillips at less than $7MM is EXACTLY the type of player the Reds need. There's a misconception that lower budget teams shouldn't have more expensive players. What they shouldn't have is awful players making average money. THAT is what kills teams like the Reds.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  13. #13
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Posts
    4,230

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    Small budget clubs should not get rid of players who actually perform to the value of their contract unless it's huge money. That's why it seems crazy to me that they'd consider trading Brandon Phillips unless they were made an offer they couldn't refuse.

    Arroyo is a great target to trade if they find a take who will take his entire salary. Harang is another guy worht dangling, but not if they have to pay much of his salary at all.

    But trading away affordable players who actually produce is just dumb for an organization like the Reds. Phillips at less than $7MM is EXACTLY the type of player the Reds need. There's a misconception that lower budget teams shouldn't have more expensive players. What they shouldn't have is awful players making average money. THAT is what kills teams like the Reds.
    I agree completely.

    However, I just don't see why anyone would take any of the big three pitchers without the Reds kicking in at least half their salaries.

    With the baseball economy where it is right now, we will see a lot of productive players, maybe even some as good as Arroyo, simply non-tendered. And this glut on the free market will cause salaries to drop even further.

    I think if Arroyo were to be on the open market this off-season, he might get a 2 year deal worth what his 1 year plus option deal is worth now, and maybe not even that much.

    The good news for the Reds is that they will have a lot of cheap choices to fill some holes, the bad news is that they will have no money to spend to do it.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  14. #14
    Haunted by walks
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Syracuse
    Posts
    9,928

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    Sportswriters love to spend owners money under the you’ve-got-to-spend-money-to-make-money premise, which rings pretty hallow coming from guys who never really made money.
    He probably meant hollow, too, but the Pod Person is probably new at the language.

  15. #15
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Savannah, TN
    Posts
    4,317

    Re: John Fay Kidnapped By Aliens...

    This kind of stuff is the exact reason why my mouth fell open when the Rolen trade was made. Not to beat a dead horse but they had to know then that the budget for 2010 was tight. They had to know then that Rolen could have been picked up cheaper in the winter of 2009 than in the summer of 2009. If trades are made to save $5 million or so then you have to wonder about Walt and Bob even more than you already do taking into account that trade.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.


Turn Off Ads?

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator