Offseason creates crazy talk... Trade Idea...

[REDblooded]

I know I've blasted people for off the wall trade idea's, but here's one I would love to see the Reds go after.....

Tigers get...

Francisco Cordero: Tigers need a closer, Reds have bullpen depth to spare. 12 million per season through 2011 with 2012 club option (1 million buyout)

Joey Votto: To get what the Reds would get, they would have to give something up... Both were born in 1983, though Votto is 5 months younger.

Wily Taveras: Owed 4 million in 2010, Taveras evens up the salaries on the deal for 2010 alone... Hopefully the deep wall in Detroit removes all hope from Taveras's mind of ever reaching the fences, and he turns into a slap hitter that can spell Granderson better than Wilkin Ramirez...

Bronson Arroyo (Reds pick up 2.5 million of 2010 salary to make 2010 commitments equal for both teams): Allows Detroit to heavily pursue a Edwin Jackson trade in order to free up more salary space... Fly balls aren't as big of a concern in Comerica...



Reds get:

Wow... Gave up a lot didn't we? This better be good....

Miguel Cabrera: Big long-term contract (10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M), but one of the few players in baseball worth it... What? Right handed power bat that hits for contact too? Awesome. Hit 19 HR's in 293 AB's at Comerica? What does that translate to in GABP terms?

Also... I would start talks with Avila being a part of the deal... Would be just the type of catcher the Reds need...

Kinda absurd to consider taking on a big long-term deal when you're worried about money, but Miggy would give the Reds a 40+ hr superstar that the fans would pay to watch. Also, by losing Arroyo/Cordero/Taveras, the 2010 commitments are a wash financially. Arroyo has a buyout for 2011, but it's not cheap at 2 million, so the Reds would probably bring him back in 2011 at 11 million... that effectively makes Cabrera's 2011 cost only 9 million by virtue of the loss of Arroyo.
After 2010, 11 million more comes off of the books when Rolen's contract expires. You can choose to bring Rolen back, but at his age, it should be at a discount. If not, Francisco is hopefully ready to step in...
After 2012 when Harang/Phillips contracts both expire, the Reds will be faced with decisions based off of Cueto/Bailey/Bruce being arbitration eligible, but with a pretty strong farm system, should be in a situation to make decisions based off of young talent available cheap...

I was obviously bored, so this whole thing is kinda lol, but... What would you think of the Reds making such a move? Is there a more desirable/feasible RH bat available that would have the impact of a Miguel Cabrera?

[hebroncougar]

I'd be scared to death of Cabrera being the RH version of Mo Vaughn...............he's not for me.

[Falls City Beer]

Aren't the Tigers looking to shed payroll?

[Will M]

sorry. no way i want to get rid of Votto & no way I want Cabrera.

[HeatherC1212]

So we trade four players, three of which have been pretty important and productive pieces of the team, for only TWO players back?! What crack are you smoking?!? I don't want any part of that deal.

[redsmetz]

This sort of falls in to that category I often talk about, "back the truck up, boys." No thanks.

[RedsManRick]

Miguel is something like a 1-2 win upgrade over Votto, so you're talking about losing the production of Cordero and Arroyo in 2010 for the right to pay $10M per a marginal win upgrade of Votto to Cabrera.

Sure, Cabrera's bat is more of a sure thing than Votto's, but Cabrera is already a mediocre 1B with a big frame and a predilection for weight gain at age 26. He's worth that much money to somebody, but the long term costs and risks associated with a contract like that just don't make sense for us.

Reds Give Up:
Cordero: 2 Wins, $11.5M
Arroyo: 2 Wins, $11M
Taveras: 0 Wins, $4M
Votto: 14 wins (avg 3.5/yr through FA in 2013), $30M (estimated arb values)
TOTAL: 18 wins of production costing $56.5M -- $3.14M per win

Reds Get:
Cabrera: 33 wins of production (5.5/yr through 2015) costing $126M -- $3.81M per win

On net, the Reds would be paying more money for the expected production they'd be getting than for the production they be giving up. I think those are some reasonable projections, erring on the side of caution. You'd have to subtract 3 wins off the Reds projections to even the cost per win out. On top of that, you're taking on significant down-side risk if something were to happen to Cabrera. Cabrera probably makes sense for somebody; but that somebody is not the Reds if it costs them Joey Votto in the process.

[REDblooded]

Response to a few different posts here...

Trading miggy for the above package would fit into the Tigers plan of shedding payroll... All players received with high salaries will be off of the books in 2011 save for Arroyo. Miggy wont.

Cabrera's fielding % was slightly higher than Votto's last season...

Obviously the weight is a risk... But so is the risk that he gets a different sort of appetite when he starts playing his home games in a launching pad like GABP...

Do you honestly see Cordero, Arroyo, and Taveras being a part of the Reds long-term plans? Votto yes, but it won't be long before he's no longer a cheap option himself...

[RedsManRick]

Cabrera's fielding % was slightly higher than Votto's last season...

Fielding % is a poor way of evaluating defense.

Do you honestly see Cordero, Arroyo, and Taveras being a part of the Reds long-term plans? Votto yes, but it won't be long before he's no longer a cheap option himself...

Money has value. Votto might not be cheap in 2012 or 2013, but there's a HUGE gap between not cheap and $20M+. The Reds can't win paying $4M for a win's worth of production, even if that's what the market deems as its price. Cabrera is a great player being paid like a great player. That makes him less valuable than you might imagine.

I'd rather have Votto and the $$ that we'll have available when Cordero, Arroyo, and Taveras come off the books.

[REDblooded]

Fielding % is a poor way of evaluating defense.



Money has value. Votto might not be cheap in 2012 or 2013, but there's a HUGE gap between not cheap and $20M+. The Reds can't win paying $4M for a win's worth of production, even if that's what the market deems as its price. Cabrera is a great player being paid like a great player. That makes him less valuable than you might imagine.

I'd rather have Votto and the $$ that we'll have available when Cordero, Arroyo, and Taveras come off the books.

I know Fielding % isn't a great evaluating tool... Do you have zone ratings available?

As far as the money goes... if you're setting the difference in value at 4 million, I would think this team should gladly spend 4 million for an upgraded bat, and a RH'd hitter that has to be feared.

[Brutus]

I know Fielding % isn't a great evaluating tool... Do you have zone ratings available?

As far as the money goes... if you're setting the difference in value at 4 million, I would think this team should gladly spend 4 million for an upgraded bat, and a RH'd hitter that has to be feared.

For this year, Cabrera UZR/150 was 3.1. Votto was -2.1. Essentially Cabrera was 5 runs better.

I'll say this though: as much as I love Cabrera, I would not trade Votto for him straight-up. Cabrera might be a little better at the moment, but with Votto's age, body type and price, I'd rather have him than Cabrera.

[Krusty]

I'll take Votto over Cabrera. I think Votto's best years are to come.

[REDblooded]

For this year, Cabrera UZR/150 was 3.1. Votto was -2.1. Essentially Cabrera was 5 runs better.

I'll say this though: as much as I love Cabrera, I would not trade Votto for him straight-up. Cabrera might be a little better at the moment, but with Votto's age, body type and price, I'd rather have him than Cabrera.

But Votto is only 5 months younger than Cabrera... So at least the age argument is out the window when compared to Miggy... Also, wouldn't you say the mental issues that Votto has had would make the body type issues of Miggy a wash? At least you can count on fat Miggy playing a full season... So that just leaves Salary. If you can dump Taveras (I think a lot of the people judging this proposal to nowhere are REALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLY underrating the value of that move) in the process, as well as Cordero's bloated contract, all of a sudden, that Miggy deal isn't so bad.... You definitely can't say he's due to make more than he's worth, and is locked up long term. Also, Votto isn't making under 1 mil per season for much longer....

[REDblooded]

I'll take Votto over Cabrera. I think Votto's best years are to come.

Once again... Votto is a WHOLE 5 months younger than Cabrera... Yet Cabrera is a proven veteran that you can count on for .330+ per season and 35ish HR's even in a pitchers park... Move him to GABP, and I'm telling you. We have a slightly lesser version of Pujols.

[TheNext44]

It's not a crazy idea at all, in fact it seems very well thought out.

The issues I would have with it are Cabrera's salary and his weight.

His might be the same age as Votto, but his weight issue could age him prematurely. Maybe not, but it's a risk that has to be figured into it.

His salary is a big problem. I know that the money over all works out, but that's really just fancy bookkeeping. The issue is that the Reds can't afford a $20M player, no matter how good he is. That would be almost 30% of the payroll in one player. It would be impossible to build a team around that. Griffey highest level was only 17% of the payroll, and we all saw how difficult that was.

To put another way, if Carbrera gets $20M a season and the payroll stays the same, that means that the other 24 players have to average $2M a season. Even if you had 10 players at league minimum, you would have to have the remaining 14 average $3M a season. Basically, you would have no room for any other stars, other than players you developed before they reached arbitration.

It's a solid idea, great creative thinking, but I'm not sure it would work.