How did we not have a 2023 NFL Thread yet?
Latest rumors surround Jalen Ramsey who now wants out of Rams since they had a bad year. He wants a trade, but he also wants a new contract as part of that deal. This according to Tom Pellosero. He said they've had talks and Rams are trying to clear salary.
Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"
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Kingspoint (02-26-2023)
Quality LB's are flooding the Free Agent market.
- - - Updated - - -
Franchise Tag deadline is March 7th.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
PFF's Prediction on where the Top-50 Free Agents will land:
1. QB LAMAR JACKSON
2023 team prediction: Baltimore Ravens
Whether it’s signing Jackson via the franchise tag or a multi-year deal, the Ravens arguably have too much committed to the rest of this team to start over at the quarterback position.
That being said, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler shared in his notes from the Senior Bowl that some folks around the league believe the team and Jackson could be apart by up to $100 million in fully guaranteed money. Fellow ESPN insider Chris Mortensen reported in September that Jackson declined an offer including $133 million fully guaranteed at signing. Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson received $230 million fully guaranteed on his extension, so that gap between the two sides seems entirely plausible.
Jackson seemingly makes strides every season in the areas of his game previously identified as weaknesses. In 2022, Jackson’s 57.1% of passes being charted as accurate was a career high, and his 54.8% accuracy rate on balls thrown outside the numbers was more than a five-percentage-point improvement compared to his previous season high, an area for which he has long received criticism.
With continued growth as a traditional passer — which should only continue if Baltimore can add more receiving weapons and an offensive coordinator with more pass-game prowess — Jackson can be a walking highlight reel through the air and on the ground for years to come.
2. QB GENO SMITH
2023 team prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Both the team and player here seem very happy with where negotiations currently stand, and head coach Pete Carroll has made it clear he’s excited about the prospect of spending around a quarterback who takes a more reasonable mid-market deal that enables the club to better surround him with talent.
We modeled our contract projection for Smith off Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s extension signed in 2020 — adjusted for salary cap inflation — as the two were similar ages coming off a bounce-back season after a career downturn. This may be too bullish for a few reasons, one primary one being Tannehill had roughly $77 million in career earnings before his extension and Smith has around $17 million right now. This leverage could provide a greater incentive for Smith to take a team-friendly deal, as he would still likely more than double his career earnings within a month of signing just via the signing bonus alone.
Dating back to last season, Smith’s 7.5 yards per attempt ranks 10th, his 69.6% adjusted completion percentage ranks second and his 63.2% accurate pass rate, per PFF charting, ranks fifth. With both parties motivated to get a deal done, it’s possible a franchise tag doesn’t even come into play. But even if it does, we expect a long-term agreement will be reached before the July 15 deadline.
3. DI JAVON HARGRAVE
2023 team prediction: Chicago Bears
Hargrave may be the Eagles’ top offseason priority as they continue to emphasize rostering several quality interior defensive linemen. He is a perfect pairing next to 2022 first-round nose tackle Jordan Davis. Should Hargrave make it to unrestricted free agency, the Bears almost certainly will be a suitor, with their interior defensive line earning a 36.3 grade in 2022, more than five points worse than any other interior defensive line in the NFL.
4. S JESSIE BATES III
2023 team prediction: Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a need at safety, and Bates could be a good fit, especially since they hired Ryan Nielsen, the New Orleans Saints‘ co-defensive coordinator in 2022. Richie Grant is a solid safety for Atlanta, and the Falcons move him all around the field, but they could upgrade Jaylinn Hawkins‘ spot, as he has never graded above 60.0 in his career. Nielsen was part of a Saints coaching staff that always had quality safeties on the roster, such as Marcus Maye, Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Williams, Vonn Bell and Malcolm Jenkins. Bates can step into Williams' previous role at free safety, and he also has the capability to play in the box and succeed in Atlanta.
5. CB JAMEL DEAN
2023 team prediction: New England Patriots
New England let J.C. Jackson walk in free agency last offseason, and in this scenario they sign a younger player who can help them play more press-man coverage on the outside, something they deviated from in 2022 compared to prior seasons.
The Patriots ranked 18th in press coverage grade for their outside cornerbacks last season with a 63.0 mark, whereas Dean's 79.7 grade ranked third among cornerbacks with at least 100 press coverage snaps.
6. LB LAVONTE DAVID
2023 team prediction: Las Vegas Raiders
Currently, the only Raiders linebackers under contract for 2023 are Luke Masterson and Darien Butler, both of whom were undrafted rookies in 2022. There is a massive need to get a leader in the middle of this defense, and there might not be a better player to do so than David, who has been the epitome of consistency for the Buccaneers' defense, stringing together six straight years with a 72.0-plus PFF grade. He would help rejuvenate the Raiders' linebacker room, which has struggled to find a top-end guy at that position for years. The Raiders had bottom-five defense when opposing offenses threw over the middle of the field according to EPA per play and success rate allowed.
7. WR JAKOBI MEYERS
2023 team prediction: Houston Texans
We have a reunion here between Meyers and Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio, who came from the Patriots organization. The Texans are expected to draft a quarterback early in this year’s draft, and Meyers has proven to be a great receiving option for a rookie signal-caller. Meyers saw 50 more targets than any other Patriots player in 2021 with rookie quarterback Mac Jones and led the team again this year despite New England trading for veteran DeVante Parker and trading up in the 2022 NFL Draft for Tyquan Thornton.
The Texans arguably need speed, more so than a possession receiver, to make up for the eventual departure of wide receiver Brandin Cooks, but 2022 second-round pick wide receiver John Metchie III, who was diagnosed with leukemia shortly after the draft, could return as early as the offseason program, per Caserio.
Over the past three seasons, Meyers’ 3.1% drop rate ranks ninth among qualifying wide receivers, and he rarely loses in contested situations. The thing is, particularly with a lower average depth of target receiver, you don’t really want to see many contested targets. Nevertheless, Meyers is certainly capable of creating separation with sharp route running.
8. T ORLANDO BROWN JR.
2023 team prediction: New England Patriots
The Patriots are expected to let 2018 first-round pick tackle Isaiah Wynn walk in free agency after a tumultuous 2022 campaign, and Trent Brown is not a long-term solution at either tackle spot but can hypothetically slide back over to the right side.
It’s possible the Chiefs place a second consecutive franchise tag on Brown and/or work out a multi-year deal, but Patrick Mahomes’ elite ability to not let pressures become sacks makes it unnecessary to make a top-of-market investment on the blindside.
Brown didn’t really do much to change his perception this year; he is a good but not great tackle. New England has been aggressive in free agency in recent years and is desperate for help at the position, though. Brown earned a 60.0-plus pass-blocking grade in every 2022 contest from Week 5 on, with 11 grades above 70.0 over the stretch. He’d be a massive addition to this Patriots tackle group.
9. DI DARON PAYNE
2023 team prediction: Washington Commanders
It originally seemed likely the 2022 season would be Payne’s last year in Washington, but after his career year as a pass rusher, that reality seems less and less probable. Not only did Payne rack up 49 pressures and 11.5 sacks — the latter being more than double his previous career high — he earned his first Pro Bowl nod in 2022 and continued his streak of impressive durability on the inside.
Payne almost never misses games, with his 4,181 snaps played over his five NFL seasons the third most among interior defenders. A player of Payne’s caliber with his record of durability rarely hits the market, and we think a franchise tag will be coming before the March 7 deadline.
10. QB DEREK CARR
2023 team prediction: New Orleans Saints
While it is unquestionable that Carr had a down 2022 season, he was a top-half-of-the-NFL quarterback for a number of years and should have a handful of suitors now that he's a free agent and not on the trade block.
From 2019 to 2021, Carr ranked ninth in passing grade (86.3), ninth in yards per attempt (7.8) and seventh in big-time throw rate (5.4%). While the nine-year veteran has the athleticism to navigate the pocket and the ability to scramble for a first down if necessary, he also tends to leave a few plays on the field that have you scratching your head from time to time.
Nevertheless, it's not often a quarterback of his caliber hits the free-agent market, and while he may not match his three-year, $121.4 million extension signed last offseason with the Las Vegas Raiders, a solid short-term deal that lets him build his market value back up could be in the cards.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-nf...50-free-agents
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"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
In kind of a strange move, Bills DC Leslie Frazier is taking a year off from football. Havn't heard if he has a health issue
Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"
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Do you all think $133mill guaranteed to Lamar is an insult? PFT does:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ephen-a-smith/
Dak Prescott has a very generous contract, possibly even an overpay, and he's guaranteed $126mill
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ephen-a-smith/
I think $133mill guarantee for a frail player like Jackson is quite generous
Kingspoint (02-28-2023)
Not at all for a player that finds it difficult to finish a season.Originally Posted by Sea Ray
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
February 2nd, 2023 at 1:36pm CST by Sam Robinson
Earlier this week, the NFL revealed its 2023 salary cap. Teams can now budget for their offseasons, knowing a $224.8MM ceiling is in place. This year’s nonexclusive franchise and transition tag numbers also emerged, giving teams more clarity on those fronts as well. With that in mind, here is where every team stands in terms of cap space:
Chicago Bears: $90.91MM
Atlanta Falcons: $56.42MM
New York Giants: $44.28MM
Houston Texans: $37.56MM
Cincinnati Bengals: $35.55MM
New England Patriots: $32.71MM
Seattle Seahawks: $31.04MM
Baltimore Ravens: $26.87MM
Las Vegas Raiders: $19.78MM
Arizona Cardinals: $14.47MM
Kansas City Chiefs: $13.96MM
Detroit Lions: $13.83MM
Indianapolis Colts: $12.59MM
Denver Broncos: $9.07MM
San Francisco 49ers: $8.28MM
Washington Commanders: $8.24MM
Philadelphia Eagles: $4.24MM
Pittsburgh Steelers: $1.03MM
New York Jets: $1.31MM over the cap
Dallas Cowboys: $7.18MM over
Carolina Panthers: $8.94MM over
Los Angeles Rams: $14.19MM over
Cleveland Browns: $14.64MM over
Miami Dolphins: $16.45MM over
Green Bay Packers: $16.48MM over
Buffalo Bills: $17.88MM over
Los Angeles Chargers: $20.38MM over
Jacksonville Jaguars: $22.35MM over
Minnesota Vikings: $23.43MM over
Tennessee Titans: $23.67MM over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $55.03MM over
New Orleans Saints: $60.47MM over
These figures (courtesy of OverTheCap) will change dramatically in the coming weeks, but this is where each team stands ahead of Super Bowl LVII. After that point, cap-casualty cuts can begin taking place. Restructures, extensions and trades will commence as well, with the Saints of recent years doing well to prove there are a few roads to cap compliance.
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
I wish someone would insult me like that.
cumberlandreds (03-01-2023),dubc47834 (03-01-2023)
Looks like a lot of teams are going to have a lot of chances to draft Jalen Carter next month.
And not many of him to play football, unless it's for the Georgia Penal League.
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)
Screw it, I’d pick him if I were the Bengals. They have Jackson Carman and Mixon on the roster, not like what Carter did was worse.
What did Carman do?
Besides blow off the state of Ohio to go to Clemson.
Long time friend and criminal defense atty here shared this take with me re: Carter.
He could easily be looking at felony homicide by vehicle and 15 years in prison.
And while I’m not an attorney, as details come out (like he fled the scene of the accident that resulted in deaths of two young people, then changed his story to authorities on several occasions), I don’t see how he gets the charges dismissed or pleads down to a fine and some community service.
Just saw a new mock since this came out that had Carter falling to the Steelers.
The same mock also had the Bengals taking Joey Porter Jr.
Statutory
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