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Thread: Prospect for Prospect?

  1. #16
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I could really care less about what his OPS was at AA. I am looking at his skillset to project his numbers. Run the numbers for what you think he will do in his PA, AB, H, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, K, HBP, SH, SF and BABIP and then see what his numbers look like. The biggest things are walks, strikeouts and his power in determining his line assuming you give him a .300 BABIP. Run through that scenario for yourself with what you think Todd will do. I think you will find it difficult for him to wind up in the range you say he will if you are honest with the numbers.
    For me its a lot simpler. He has that same skillset now in AA and it translated to an .830 OPS. Now throw in the fact that hitting major league pitching is hard and much more difficult than hitting AA pitching and I think dropping from his AA baseline is a pretty reasonable expectation. What else exactly would you base those expectations of Hits, 2B, 3B and HR etc on than on what he's done so far? I'd say your expectations for the components are probably too high somewhere. If we must get specific, 64 Extra base hits seems like an awfully optimistic expectation basically holding his major league rates steady with his minor league numbers from 2009. I'd expect 50 or less extra base hits when major league pitching gets involved. You see 45 doubles and 16 HR in the minors in 2009 becoming 40 doubles and 22 HR. I'd say it'll drop with big league pitching to something more like 35 doubles and 12 HR.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    For me its a lot simpler. He has that same skillset now in AA and it translated to an .830 OPS. Now throw in the fact that hitting major league pitching is hard and much more difficult than hitting AA pitching and I think dropping from his AA baseline is a pretty reasonable expectation. What else exactly would you base those expectations of Hits, 2B, 3B and HR etc on than on what he's done so far? I'd say your expectations for the components are probably too high somewhere. If we must get specific, 64 Extra base hits seems like an awfully optimistic expectation basically holding his major league rates steady with his minor league numbers from 2009. I'd expect 50 or less extra base hits when major league pitching gets involved. You see 45 doubles and 16 HR in the minors in 2009 becoming 40 doubles and 22 HR. I'd say it'll drop with big league pitching to something more like 35 doubles and 12 HR.
    So he won't grow at all as a player? Scouting reports have him with above average power and you have him with 12 HR's. I think I will go the other way with that one. Basically you are acting as if from this point forward Frazier will not grow as a player nor make any adjustments at all. Also, he will probably get 60-80 more PA in the majors, thus higher power numbers because he will have more at bats to work with because the season is a month longer.

  4. #18
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Deals of top prospects for each other to fill positional holes in a system don't happen very often, but I wonder if the Reds are in a situation where a deal or two like that should be pursued. The Reds have a seeming glut in 1B/3B/CF/LF types and could use a high ceiling arm or two and some help at SS and C. Unfortunately, the Reds also have a budget that is maxed out so dealing these guys for major league players who make much more than the minimum wouldn't seem possible. So, given the needs and excesses of the organization, I thought we could have a little fun (and maybe learn a little bit) by proposing and critiquing some prospect for prospect deals that may even sound realistic (though highly doubtful any would actually occur). Try to justify any prosposed deals. I'll start out with a prospect for prospect proposal:

    Yonder Alonso to SF for Madison Bumgarner: This deal may fit the needs of both teams. The Giants with Lincecum and Cain on top of the rotation, Barry Zito locked up and going no where for a long time and Jonathon Sanchez being much more than solid might be able to afford giving up an high ceiling arm for an affordable bat. Add that a cloud of a murder trial now hangs over Angel Villalona the SF 1B of the future and top offensive prospect and the Giants may be open to it. From the Reds standpoint, they will need replacements for Arroyo and Harang while Alonso is blocked by Votto with only Votto making a move to LF to join an already crowded situation with Heisey, Francisco, and maybe Frazier as a possibility. If the Giants want a kicker to provide some rotation depth, the Reds should be happy to include a Klinker, Horst, Owings, Lecure or even Maloney. Adding Wood would be OK if the Giants kick in a lesser prospect or a cheap player (Manny Burris as a SS alternative may be interesting).

    Thoughts? Anyone with a prospect for prospect deal to add to this.
    I would expect the Reds to wait until mid season before making a deal like this. Several things will occur by then.

    #1 IF we are actually in contention then prospects may be moved for help this year. IF we are falling out of it then guys like Harang & Arroyo could be moved for prospects.

    #2 I think a big key in the medium term is whether Volquez can come back. If he can the 2011 rotation starts with Bailey-Cueto-Volquez with guys like Wood, Leake & Maloney filling out the back end. If Volquez can't come back then we will need more SP. by trading Alonso now we cash in our big chip without knowing what our top need is

    #3 Can Janish hit better? How do Valaika & Cozart look in AAA in 2010? By midseason I think we will know if we need to go outside the organization for a SS

    Catcher is the one position the Reds seem devoid of in the minors. If we could somehow swing a deal for the odd man/men out in the CF/LF/1B battle for a catcher ready in 2011 then thats a deal i would make.
    .

  5. #19
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    I would expect the Reds to wait until mid season before making a deal like this. Several things will occur by then.

    #1 IF we are actually in contention then prospects may be moved for help this year. IF we are falling out of it then guys like Harang & Arroyo could be moved for prospects.

    #2 I think a big key in the medium term is whether Volquez can come back. If he can the 2011 rotation starts with Bailey-Cueto-Volquez with guys like Wood, Leake & Maloney filling out the back end. If Volquez can't come back then we will need more SP. by trading Alonso now we cash in our big chip without knowing what our top need is

    #3 Can Janish hit better? How do Valaika & Cozart look in AAA in 2010? By midseason I think we will know if we need to go outside the organization for a SS

    Catcher is the one position the Reds seem devoid of in the minors. If we could somehow swing a deal for the odd man/men out in the CF/LF/1B battle for a catcher ready in 2011 then thats a deal i would make.
    I think pitching is always a need and top pitching in the minors is scarce. I have some hope that Boxberger can come on and Leake could be useful. Wood is a back end guy IMO and so is Maloney. Adding another top pitcher now doesn't hurt the Reds when it comes to making a deal later. If anything it gives them more young pitching to deal which IMO is the key to getting what you want because there are always 30 teams in the market for good young arms. Not every team is going to want an OF or a 1B, but young pitching always has 30 buyers and always matches up with everybody else. Right now I don't see where the Reds have enough excess to deal any of enough consequence to get anything. But if the Reds could add an arm or two while cleaning up the positional glut and some of the injured guys like Smith, Thompson, Buck and Lotzkar can come back, they should be able to get whatever they need on the trade market.
    Last edited by mth123; 11-30-2009 at 05:59 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #20
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think pitching is always a need and top pitching in the minors is scarce. I have some hope that Boxberger can come on and Leake could be useful. Wood is a back end guy IMO and so is Maloney. Adding another top pitcher now doesn't hurt the Reds when it comes to making a deal later. If anything it gives them more young pitching to deal which IMO is the key to getting what you want because there are always 30 teams in the market for good young arms. Not every team is going to want an OF or a 1B, but young pitching always has 30 buyers and always matches up with everybody else. Right now I don't see where the Reds have enough excess to deal any of enough consequence to get anything. But if the Reds could add an arm or two while cleaning up the positional glut and some of the injured guys like Smith, Thompson, Buck and Lotzkar can come back, they should be able to get whatever they need on the trade market.
    I'll buy this arguement.
    .

  7. #21
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    I like Alonso better than Bumgarner but the Giants wouldn't trade Bumgarner for Alonso. IMHO...

  8. #22
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    I am gonna offer a trade idea started by a prospect for prospect idea but expanded to help both teams.

    Tampa Bay gets:
    Yonder Alonso (thee Prospect)
    Pedro Viola or Bill Bray
    Devin Mesoraco

    Reds get:
    Wade Davis (thee Prospect)
    Reid Brignac

    (I also thought of including a Rhodes or Burton on our end instead of 'spects and Bartlett instead of Brignac but not sure the Rays are ready to part with Bartlett after the season he just had)

    My thinking process is that Alonso is hypothetically blocked here and Carlos Pena is a FA after 2010. Tampa Bay has several high profile arms but few potential power positional prospects. Obviously we could use Davis' TOR potential and he can start for us right away. Money is not an issue for either team in this deal at all. Not sure Tampa does this deal as Davis may have more current value and Brignac being an average to above SS prospect but I think TB is a good match for a deal that helps both teams, just have to find the right match. FWIW I think TB would be interested if we were to take Hellickson instead of Davis but not sure I'd rather have him for Alonso. At any rate this should give us the parameters for a deal and make for some interesting conversation.
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  9. #23
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I am gonna offer a trade idea started by a prospect for prospect idea but expanded to help both teams.

    Tampa Bay gets:
    Yonder Alonso (thee Prospect)
    Pedro Viola or Bill Bray
    Devin Mesoraco

    Reds get:
    Wade Davis (thee Prospect)
    Reid Brignac

    (I also thought of including a Rhodes or Burton on our end instead of 'spects and Bartlett instead of Brignac but not sure the Rays are ready to part with Bartlett after the season he just had)

    My thinking process is that Alonso is hypothetically blocked here and Carlos Pena is a FA after 2010. Tampa Bay has several high profile arms but few potential power positional prospects. Obviously we could use Davis' TOR potential and he can start for us right away. Money is not an issue for either team in this deal at all. Not sure Tampa does this deal as Davis may have more current value and Brignac being an average to above SS prospect but I think TB is a good match for a deal that helps both teams, just have to find the right match. FWIW I think TB would be interested if we were to take Hellickson instead of Davis but not sure I'd rather have him for Alonso. At any rate this should give us the parameters for a deal and make for some interesting conversation.
    What is this fascination with Reid Brignac? What kind of advantage does he give you over Zack Cozart? Its not a glove. Its not power. Its not plate discipline. So what is it? That he will be ready 2 months sooner than Cozart?

    I would much rather have Davis than Hellickson. Davis has MUCH better stuff. Hellickson has solid stuff, similar to a Travis Wood. Good control for him though that does allow it to play up some.

    I would be interested in exploring Alonso for Davis though. Perhaps as a larger deal overall, but with those two being the center pieces to the trade. I would much rather not have Brignac though, no need to pay talent for him when we have Cozart.

  10. #24
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    What is this fascination with Reid Brignac? What kind of advantage does he give you over Zack Cozart? Its not a glove. Its not power. Its not plate discipline. So what is it? That he will be ready 2 months sooner than Cozart?

    I would much rather have Davis than Hellickson. Davis has MUCH better stuff. Hellickson has solid stuff, similar to a Travis Wood. Good control for him though that does allow it to play up some.

    I would be interested in exploring Alonso for Davis though. Perhaps as a larger deal overall, but with those two being the center pieces to the trade. I would much rather not have Brignac though, no need to pay talent for him when we have Cozart.
    Well I can't answer that for anyone else but for me it's not putting all my eggs into one basket. All it takes for sub standard SS play for the next couple of seasons is for Cozart to have a serious injury and what are we left with? Plus Brignac definitely being ready for the start of the season as opposed to really not knowing what Cozarts time table really is. You know as well as I do that the Reds are notoriously slow at advancing their prospects, for all we know Cozart is at minimum a year away and I'd prefer to compete immediately. Truth be told I'd prefer Bartlett be included but I just don't think Tampa would part with him. Get Bartlett and that allows for Cozart to not be rushed and gives us a decent #1 or #2 hole hitter from the SS position in the short term.

    How about this?

    Rays get:
    Alonso
    Rhodes/Burton
    Janish/Sutton/Rosales

    Reds get:
    Davis
    Bartlett


    BTW I did try to stay away from using Alonso since he was already used however I personally couldn't think of a better solution besides offering Francisco for Hellickson but I am looking to try to help the major league club quickly.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 12-01-2009 at 03:42 AM.
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  11. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I am gonna offer a trade idea started by a prospect for prospect idea but expanded to help both teams.

    Tampa Bay gets:
    Yonder Alonso (thee Prospect)
    Pedro Viola or Bill Bray
    Devin Mesoraco

    Reds get:
    Wade Davis (thee Prospect)
    Reid Brignac

    (I also thought of including a Rhodes or Burton on our end instead of 'spects and Bartlett instead of Brignac but not sure the Rays are ready to part with Bartlett after the season he just had)

    My thinking process is that Alonso is hypothetically blocked here and Carlos Pena is a FA after 2010. Tampa Bay has several high profile arms but few potential power positional prospects. Obviously we could use Davis' TOR potential and he can start for us right away. Money is not an issue for either team in this deal at all. Not sure Tampa does this deal as Davis may have more current value and Brignac being an average to above SS prospect but I think TB is a good match for a deal that helps both teams, just have to find the right match. FWIW I think TB would be interested if we were to take Hellickson instead of Davis but not sure I'd rather have him for Alonso. At any rate this should give us the parameters for a deal and make for some interesting conversation.
    Sign me up. I love the idea of getting a top starter candidate for Alonso, Davis would become the top prospect and 5th starter immediately and unlike Doug, I love the idea of Brignac. Janish is very flawed, Cozart is promising but is in no way a sure thing and adding another guy who can play SS to the mix is a good idea IMO. I like Cozart but no need to put all of our eggs in his basket. The nice thing about Brignac is he is a lefty bat who can play 2B, SS and 3B so even if he isn't the starter anywhere, he's a nice complimentary piece for a team with a RH with severe splits like Phillips at 2B, an unproven guy at SS who even if he works out may end up being a guy who needs a tandem partner if not a straight platoon and a long in the tooth 3B who would probably benefit by having a lefty to spell him against certain righty pitchers who may give him trouble. The rest will keep him fresh. Even if Brignac doesn't end up as an everyday guy, he's about as good a fit for this team's bench as you may be able to find.

    I'd probably try to hold onto Mesoraco though. While I think he's been disappointing so far, he showed some signs in 2009 and the team is thin at catching from the iffy guys in the majors all the way down with Mesoraco the best long term hope (though if TB insisted in order to get Davis I'd be for it). Maybe TB would take Sutton instead. With Iwamura gone and Zobrist probably playing every day, they'll want to replace Brignac I'd think as the guy to play in case of injury.

    I'd rather deal Viola than Bray but would include either happily to get this deal done.
    Last edited by mth123; 12-01-2009 at 03:58 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #26
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Alonso and Bray for David Price work for anyone else?
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  13. #27
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Alonso and Bray for David Price work for anyone else?
    In a heartbeat. The Rays, however, probably wouldn't even bother to respond.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #28
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Alonso and Bray for David Price work for anyone else?
    That offer wouldn't even get the conversation started.

  15. #29
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Alonso for Jason Heyward. LF problem solved, Votto stays at 1B

  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect for Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by krm1580 View Post
    Alonso for Jason Heyward. LF problem solved, Votto stays at 1B
    The Braves would laugh and hang up on you.


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