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Thread: Interesting Study on A Run Scored vs. A Run Saved

  1. #1
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Interesting Study on A Run Scored vs. A Run Saved

    Saw this at RedReporter, which linked to the Viva El Birdos site.

    A Run Scored vs. A Run Saved

    Very interesting read, should lead to some good discussion here.

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  3. #2
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Study on A Run Scored vs. A Run Saved

    Interesting read, thanks!
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  4. #3
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Interesting Study on A Run Scored vs. A Run Saved

    I think he has the conclusion slightly off. It should not be bad teams need scoring and good teams need runs. Rather, it's that the better you are at a given thing, less valuable the next marginal run (scored or prevented) becomes. So if you're the Reds of 2006, you get more win value from a run prevented than a run scored. But if you're the Reds of 2009, it's the other way around.

    That said, it's very rare for teams to be so good or bad at one compared to the other that the difference in value justifies paying significantly more for one skill set compared to the other. I'd love to get a better sense of this scale though. I also think it would be fascinating to see market values (e.g. $450k per run) placed on run scoring and run prevention separately, perhaps even separating out defense and pitching. I'm sure you could do a regression on the data sets available to get there...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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