Any thoughts?
Any thoughts?
Here's the complete list, for comparison.
New York Yankees 11/4
Boston Red Sox 13/2
Philadelphia Phillies 9/1
Los Angeles Angels 10/1
St. Louis Cardinals 10/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 11/1
Chicago Cubs 15/1
New York Mets 15/1
Tampa Bay Rays 15/1
Atlanta Braves 18/1
Colorado Rockies 18/1
Chicago White Sox 22/1
Detroit Tigers 25/1
Florida Marlins 25/1
Minnesota Twins 25/1
San Francisco Giants 25/1
Texas Rangers 25/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 40/1
Cincinnati Reds 45/1
Milwaukee Brewers 45/1
Oakland Athletics 45/1
Cleveland Indians 50/1
Seattle Mariners 50/1
Toronto Blue Jays 60/1
Baltimore Orioles 75/1
Houston Astros 75/1
San Diego Padres 75/1
Kansas City Royals 100/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 100/1
Washington Nationals 100/1
Last edited by BRM; 01-04-2010 at 04:29 PM.
I think the Mariners are significantly underrated. The AL West is wide open and they are much improved. Put King Felix and Cliff Lee in the playoffs and that's a very tough out.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
I think the Cubs are pretty overrated. As are the Angels.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
The Cubs and Mets at 15/1 are kind of laughable. I bet the sports books make quite a bit of cash off those two.
My math skills tell me you could plunk down equal amounts of cash on the Red Sox and Yanks, and if either team won the Series you'd come out ahead...if only the Yankees odds were slightly higher (4:1 or even 3.5:1) I'd consider that.Originally Posted by BRM
Not being a gambler, why aren't the Yankees more simply 3:1 and the Red Sox 6:1 or 7:1?
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Because they aren't. I would imagine that Vegas wants to maximize their odds as well as payouts. While 11/4 is very close to 3/1 it isn't exactly. It is even more skewed when you have a couple of million in bets.
That's what caught my eye at first glance too. They think the Reds have a better shot than the Mariners. I don't understand how they think that.
Its all relative right? If the Reds make it to the WS the best 2 teams they would have to go through are the Cards and Phillies. If the Mariners make it to the WS they have to go through the Angles in division, as well as the Yanks, Red Sox, etc. The AL has better top tier teams than the NL.
True but Seattle has a better 1-2 punch in Lee/Fernandez and in a short series that's a big difference.
Gotta get to the playoffs first (See the Giants this year with Cain and Lincecum[I bet Cain/Lincecum '09 is better than Lee/Hernandez '10]...Felix sported a 3.45 ERA in 2008 and still went 9-11...thats very telling.
Having said that, yeah, they are not giving the M's enough respect.
Last edited by kaldaniels; 01-04-2010 at 08:37 PM.
Yep...for Vegas the difference between 2:1 and 3:1 is far more important than the difference from 45:1 and 46:1...so they gotta break it down a little. Betting is always going to be heavier on the teams with the best odds, so that is what Vegas has to keep a close eye in.
I think the odds would have to be a lot better than 100 to 1 before I put anything on the Pirates for 2010. I won't buy a $1 Powerball ticket unless the jackpot hits $100,000,000 and the the odds of winning that must be about the same as the Pirates taking the series this year. (1 in 195,249,054)
Reds chances to win NL Central or be a wild card: 15%
(Cards 30%, Cubs 25%, Brewers 20%, Astros 10%, Pirates 0%)
Reds chances to win each series ~40%
Therefore odds of winning series .15 x .4 x .4 x .4 = 1%
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