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Thread: 2010 or 2011

  1. #1
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    2010 or 2011

    I believe the Reds have to choose between competing in 2010 or 2011. I say that because I beleive the only hope of competing in 2010 is hanging onto both Harang and Arroyo (and Cordero).

    I think the only chance the Reds have in 2010 is to hope Arroyo's season mirrors the second half of this past season and pray that Harang can recapture the magic of before "the relief appearance". If either is dealt, I don't think the Reds have enough pitching to win the Central (especially with Volquez on the shelf). Problem is, if you hold onto them, I don't believe there are enough dollars to do anything else, so you go with what there is and hope.

    You can't expect to deal one and get a pitcher back in the deal to take his place, because anyone dealing for them is not likely to deal of a young starting pitcher ready to help (at least not in 2010).

    I'm afraid that they will deal one to make some room to acquire a player or two along the lines of Byrd and then do what they've done the last decade. Make cosmetic moves and try to sell the fandom that they make us comptetitive, but nothing of real substance.

    I don't care if the Reds keep Arroyo, Harang and Cordero or deal all three. I just really don't want to see them take the middle route (which is likely).

    If they want to move one, go all in. Make a series of interlocking deals designed to strengthen the roster for 2011 and beyond. Be up front with the Reds fandom. Tell them that you are sure the Club's future is bright, but the salary structure is out of balance and we are going to take some steps that, while painful in the very short term, will help make the future very bright. Tell them that we are not conceding anything but youth comes first they need experience to take us where we want to go.

    I'd start off by saying "we made a mistake," but we're going to rectify it and DFA Taveras - say the ABs go to those we will be counting on going forward.

    Then Phase I, I get serious about making deals. Harang to the Dodgers for Sherrill and a young player/prospect or two? Fine. Sherrill, Massett and Rhodes could make the basis for a storng back end of the bullpen.

    Don't stop there though. Go with the youth in the pen and move Cordero for something else of use, Same for Bronson.

    Concentrate on arms and a young SS. If someone offers a young talent who has great potential, but won't be ready for a year or two - fine, bring them on, don't worry about position, they may be handy in the next phase - just add talent.

    Joey is your cornerstone and for all the carping I did about how/when he was acquired, Rolen, if healthy, has value - almost assuredly more than he would bring in a deal. Jay still isn't a sure thing and could still disappoint, but he's the closest thing they have to a professional Plus corner OF. I wouldn't say he's untouchable, but then you'd just have to turn a round and replace him - he stays.

    Phillips is by no means untouchable, but if he at least plays like he did this past season he helps this team plenty. He stays unless someone really wows you. Hanigan is a solid as a second catcher and probably does not bring enough in return to make it worth your while to deal him. He'd stay. Every other position guy in the organization is in the mix.

    Francisco, Alonso, Heisey, Frazier, Dickerson, Stubbs, Valaika, etc. all in play. Likewisie for pitching. If you deal Bailey, Cueto, you just have to replace them, so you are really hesitant to move them. I'd put Leake in the untouchable category and I don't see you getting anything close to value for Volquez, considering his injury status. I hang onto Massett, but all other hurlers are in the mix. I'm not saying you get rid all of your top prospects haphazardly, but you make choices and package some (possibly along with some of theyoung talent that came over in the Harang/Arroyo/Cordeo deals in Phase I).

    Phase II is filling the holes, Come the 2010 trade deadline, I make an all out push for the Holidays, Halladays and Lees out there. By that, I mean being agressive in pursuing guys other teams out of contention are wanting to move for prospects. Unlike Holdiay though, I don't touch anyone not signed for 2011 unless I'm convinced I have a very good chance of signing them up.

    (As an example only) Maybe I overpay and send five or six prospects to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and a pitcher or two from their young stable. Maybe I go after a TOR pitcher that does not help a team well out of contention or a young middle of the order batter to fill the cleanup spot. If they could pull off a deal like that, I think it would create some serious excitement, hope and real interest in Redsland and probably pick up attendance for the second half.

    Phase III would be to fill the hole not filled by the first two phases. In other words, if Phase I netted a young SS and Phase II netted a TOR starter, I'd put the savings realized into signing a slugging FA in the next offseason. etc. I'd like to have a solid hitting catcher who can defend too, but if I can come away with a young SS who can defend and hit in the two-hole, a middle of the order LF bat and a TOR starter, I'll live with Hanigan and Hernandez (or young alternative) behind the plate, hitting 8th. [I'd also take some fo the savings and sign Chapman]

    2010 (Stand Pat) or 2011 (All-in), but no in between please. I'm really concerned though that in-berween is exactly what we have in store. I still believe either Harang or Arroyo is gone by Opening Day.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 01-02-2010 at 03:45 AM.

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    If you deal Bailey, Cueto, you just have to replace them, so you are really hesitant to move them.
    Something I notice is that several of us think of moving Harang, Arroyo, Cordero. I guess we are thinking of improving the team through increasing payroll flexibility or receiving some quality players in return that might or would address question marks or weaknesses on the team.

    The thing that keeps coming back to me is like the quote above, well, if you trade off Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero, even if it free's up a great deal of money, you still have to replace them, and I am pretty certain that most would want equal to or greater than pitching ability and performance replacing them. So if those pitchers were available, they will cost. If they are not replaced with better pitching, where will the Reds be?

    It is not often that truly good pitchers are available on the trade or other ways of obtaining them, where do they come from, and how much, for how long? I don't know.

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    Something I notice is that several of us think of moving Harang, Arroyo, Cordero. I guess we are thinking of improving the team through increasing payroll flexibility or receiving some quality players in return that might or would address question marks or weaknesses on the team.

    The thing that keeps coming back to me is like the quote above, well, if you trade off Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero, even if it free's up a great deal of money, you still have to replace them, and I am pretty certain that most would want equal to or greater than pitching ability and performance replacing them. So if those pitchers were available, they will cost. If they are not replaced with better pitching, where will the Reds be?

    It is not often that truly good pitchers are available on the trade or other ways of obtaining them, where do they come from, and how much, for how long?
    It is a quandry without an easy answer. I think the reason for moving Arroyo and Harang is to free up/redistribute payroll going forward as well as get something in return for them. I don't see the Reds picking up their options, nor do I see them offering arbitration for fear it would be accepted.

    If you do deal one or both IMO, you are punting on the 2010 season becasue you don't have enough pitching left. You deal with fillers like Maloney, Lehr or Owings etc rounding out the rotation until you can get the pieces in place for 2011.

    As for how you replace them? Probably the best way to pick up a TOR-type pitcher these days is to pony up prospects at the deadline and get one from a team out of contention and looking to turn them into prospects. Guys like Cliff Lee or Ron Halladay who were offered last year. Maybe the Giants are out of the running this coming deadline and will listen on Cain or the Marlins are out of it and will listen on one of their young guns like Johnson.

    It doesn't repalce Bronson AND Aaron, but maybe it puts an arm in the rotation that is young and better than both.

    As for the rest of the staff? I think you have to puts your eggs in the young pitching basket. You need at least three pitchers out of Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Maloney and Leake to make up the core of your 2011 rotation no matter what. Maybe you add someone from an unconventional source (like signing Chapman), maybe someone comes on like LeCure or Jordan Smith or you pickup a verteran FA for a manageable deal to fill the fourth or fifth spot.

    If you can't count on at least three of the six young guys listed above your pretty much screwed anyways. Same with Bruce in RF.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 01-02-2010 at 02:46 AM.

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    It is a quandry without an easy answer. I think the reason for moving Arroyo and Harang is to free up/redistribute payroll going forward as well as get something in return for them. I don't see the Reds picking up their options, nor do I see them offering arbitration for fear it would be accepted.
    You don't think the Reds will pick up the option on either Harang or Arroyo?

    I could see them dealing one and keeping the other for 2011.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    You don't think the Reds will pick up the option on either Harang or Arroyo?

    I could see them dealing one and keeping the other for 2011.
    I wouldn't rule it out, but it's a gamble either way. Not sure either's value will be worth their option contract in 2011, then again maybe it will.

    One of the central points in my original post though is if you're gonna deal one before 2010 it pretty much means they won't have enough pitching to win the Central. Why not just go ahead and deal both for twice the savings (as well as young talent) and then go after a starter better than either at the deadline from a team out of contention or in free agency next offseason.

    If you can add someone like Sherrill who can team with Massett to close games, why not deal Cordero too (if you can find a taker) add more young takent and maybe free up the dollars to add a middle of the lineup LFer?

    The young talent acquired in the deals could be used to help acquire a young SS (if not actually in the deals themselves), slugger or TOR arm or make current Reds farm hands more expenable for those type deals.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 01-02-2010 at 03:14 AM.

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    I think the Reds would be long-shots to win the division whether they keep both of them or not.

    As far as the return right now I'm not sure it would be much. It might be more in June/July when a contender may feel they need another pitcher for the final push for the playoffs but who knows how much the Reds may be able to save and the Reds likely won't get both cost savings and real talent in return. They may still have to throw in some money too which would detract from the point of the trade in the first place. And if there's a better pitcher available that other team will be more likely to deal for that pitcher instead of one of ours.

    We don't know for sure that the Reds have someone that can be counted on to close besides Cordero either. But even if the Reds deal all three it will mostly free up money, and not get alot of talent back, and some of the savings would be eaten up by arbitration to other players on the team or to lock up someone like Cueto, Votto, Volquez, or Bruce. We'd have some left for free agency but not enough to land a good outfield bat, a good shortstop, AND a real good starting pitcher. What our prospects would bring back in a trade is the wild card. They may have more value to us as cheap as they'll be but we won't have places on the team for all of the outfield prospects. What would help alot is if Cozart shows enough progress to take over short and one of the young outfield options emerges to take over left.

    This is why it's so important for a team that doesn't have a big payroll, like the Reds, to develop a strong farm system and to make smart front office decisions (free agent signings, extensions, trades, etc.). The farm system has improved alot but the Reds still have to work on making smarter front office decisions.
    Last edited by redsfandan; 01-02-2010 at 04:38 AM.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    The "quandary" of trying to replace Arroyo and Harang with the payflex achieved--after you pay some part of their contracts to another club--is why they're still here--and why Walt looks "inactive." The primary way of replacing them would be to go into the free agent market, but the same clubs that are interested in them can also go into the free agent market and acquire the very guys you'd like as replacements for Harang or Arroyo--and those clubs are more likely to acquire these pitchers than we are because they're generally more attractive places to pitch--L.A., for instance.

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    The "quandary" of trying to replace Arroyo and Harang with the payflex achieved--after you pay some part of their contracts to another club--is why they're still here--and why Walt looks "inactive." The primary way of replacing them would be to go into the free agent market, but the same clubs that are interested in them can also go into the free agent market and acquire the very guys you'd like as replacements for Harang or Arroyo--and those clubs are more likely to acquire these pitchers than we are because they're generally more attractive places to pitch--L.A., for instance.
    You probably would save little, if anything at all this year and maybe only the buyouts next off season in total. You might even have to take on a half season of extra salary if you deal prospects for someone at the trade deadline.

    The point wasn't about saving huge amounts of money this year. Create a coherent plan for 2011 and pursue it agressively now. If your gonna trade one of the starters trade both. Don't deal one, sign a Marlon Byrd and tell us "we haven't given up, we're still in the thick of it." Then next offseason spend two or three months agonizing over the option of the starter you held onto.

    If you're gonna do it do it now and do it big or stand pat and try to compete. Just don't do it halfway.

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    I've proposed what I think is a coherent plan numerous times. If we can only acquire one free agent this year, I'd argue for a starter. I'd also like to have a better SS, C, LF etc., but I think we can get more pop by deepening the rotation and going with the in-house options at the other spots. This would give us a 10% chance to win the Central this year, then enable the trading of either Harang or Arroyo later on if it doesn't work and after we've been able to see how Volquez is recovering and/or what the timetables/projections are for Wood, Maloney etc.

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I've proposed what I think is a coherent plan numerous times. If we can only acquire one free agent this year, I'd argue for a starter. I'd also like to have a better SS, C, LF etc., but I think we can get more pop by deepening the rotation and going with the in-house options at the other spots. This would give us a 10% chance to win the Central this year, then enable the trading of either Harang or Arroyo later on if it doesn't work and after we've been able to see how Volquez is recovering and/or what the timetables/projections are for Wood, Maloney etc.
    Not saying it's a bad plan at all. It's not. Only problem is, I don't think 1) there's enough money to add a FA pitcher without getting rid of at least one or both Harang & Arroyo, 2) there's many differnce making pitchers still availablr and 3) if we could outbid the big boys for any that are. I actually believe the best way to add a TOR starter is to wow a non-contending team near the deadline with prospects.

    One way to improve your chances is to add to our pool of young talent by getting a return on Harang, Arroyo and maybe even Cordero.

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    Harang to LA for Sherrill and prospect pitchers, McDonald and Ely. Even money. Sherrill to close, Coco to somebody for prospects and salary relief, take Coco's money and spend it on Davis. If Bray's healthy, Rhodes to Texas for prospects.

    2010 Rotation: Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, Davis, and one of Maloney, Owings, or Wood until Volquez is ready. 2011: Bailey, Cueto, Davis, Volquez, and a true TOR to be gotten with Arroyo's money plus the difference between Cordero and Davis's salaries, Willy T's money, and Lincoln's 2 million.
    2010 pen: Sherrill, Masset, Burton, Rhodes or Bray, Herrera, Owings or Maloney, Fisher
    2011 pen: roughly the same, maybe some tinkering from our own AAA guys or one more experienced pickup
    Last edited by HokieRed; 01-02-2010 at 11:30 PM. Reason: mistake

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Harang to LA for Sherrill and prospect pitchers, McDonald and Ely. Even money. Sherrill to close, Coco to somebody for prospects and salary relief, take Coco's money and spend it on Davis. If Bray's healthy, Rhodes to Texas for prospects.

    2010 Rotation: Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, Davis, and one of Maloney, Owings, or Wood until Volquez is ready. 2011: Bailey, Cueto, Davis, Volquez, and a true TOR to be gotten with Arroyo's money plus the difference between Cordero and Davis's salaries, Willy T's money, and Lincoln's 2 million.
    2010 pen: Sherrill, Masset, Burton, Rhodes or Bray, Herrera, Owings or Maloney, Fisher
    2011 pen: roughly the same, maybe some tinkering from our own AAA guys or one more experienced pickup
    I could live with that, If McDonald were in the trade, I would expect him to make the pen. If they actually start Leake out in AA this year, I think they are hoping he's in the rotation mix also for 2011.

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    People will disagree, but I'm in the both camp, but 2011 is probably more realistic. Since we're not really taking into account Walt's conservative nature:

    1. Harang to the Dodgers for McDonald and Sherrill (no more than $3 Million goes with Harang)
    2. Sign Doug Davis 3 years, $24 Million (6, 9 and 9)
    3. Rhodes to the Rangers for Taylor Teagarden (Texas looking at a vet catcher which may leave no spot for Teagarden)
    4. Alonso, Wlad and Valaika to the Rays for Matt Joyce, Reid Brignac and Alexander Torres (Hate to give-up Alonso, but Torres would be a top starter prospect and Brignac and Joyce would address weaknesses at SS and against RHP. It also solves the Votto/Alonso question once and for all and TB is motivated to get a cheaper backfill for Pena who is in his walk year)
    5. Cordero, Sutton, Taveras and Maloney to the Tigers for Nate Robertson. (Tigers looking for a veteran for the back of the pen and would probably take Cordero in this deal. Taking Robertson's big cotract ($10 Million) in exchange for Maloney allows the team to dump Willy in the deal. The Tigers may try him as a stop gap to replace Granderson until Austin Jackson is ready. Sutton gives them a 2B option on the cheap and the position is wide open. For about $6 Million the Tigers plug the hole in the back of the pen, add stopgaps in CF and 2B (with Sutton potentially being more than that) and get another younger, cheaper arm for the rotation. I could see them doing that. The Reds save some cash in 2010 and get out from under Cordero's 2011 commitment while clearing the path for better, younger and cheaper players in the OF.

    In all these deals would reduce the 2010 payroll by about $7 Million.

    2010

    VS RHP

    Dickerson CF
    Rolen 3B
    Votto 1B
    Bruce RF
    Joyce LF
    Phillps 2B
    Brignac SS
    Hernandez/Teagarden/Hanigan C

    VS LHP

    Stubbs CF
    Heisey LF
    Votto 1B
    Phillips 2B
    Rolen 3B
    Bruce RF
    Hernandez/Teagarden/Hanigan C
    Janish SS

    That would make the Position Player Roster with

    C (3)
    Hanigan
    Hernandez
    Teagarden

    IF (5)
    Votto
    Phillips
    Brignac
    Janish
    Rolen

    OF (5)
    Bruce
    Stubbs
    Dickerson
    Joyce
    Heisey

    SP1 - Cueto
    SP2 - Arroyo
    SP3 - Davis
    SP4 - Bailey
    SP5 - Robertson
    SP6 - McDonald
    RHR - Owings
    LHR - Bray
    RHR - Burton
    LHR - Herrera
    SU - Masset
    CL - Sherrill

    Depth at AAA/AA would include Wood, Fisher, Rosales, Frazier, Francisco, Cozart, Leake, Lecure, Ondrusek, Del Rosario, Smith, Klinker, Horst, Viola, Valiquette and Torres.

    After 2010, Robertson, Hernandez, Lincoln and Arroyo depart (over $26 Million) and the cash is used for a Brandon Webb signing (he has ties to the area, his former pitching coach is here and his sinker fits the park and the Phillips, Cozart, Rolen IF defense) to replace Arroyo with the rest covering raises. Volquez replaces Robertson and the team goes down to 2 catchers with Cozart taking Hernandez roster spot.

    2011

    C - Hanigan/Teagarden
    1B - Votto
    2B - Phillips
    SS - Brignac/Cozart
    3B - Rolen
    LF - Joyce/Heisey
    CF - Dickerson/Stubbs
    RF - Bruce
    UI - Janish/Frazier/Francisco/Rosales

    SP1 - Webb
    SP2 - Bailey
    SP3 - Cueto
    SP4 - Davis
    SP5 - Volquez
    SP6 and 7 - McDonald/Wood/Klinker/Smith/Owings/Lecure/Horst/Torres/Leake
    LHR - Bray/Viola/Valiquette
    RHR - Burton/Ondrusek/Del Rosario/Fisher
    LHR - Herrera
    SU - Masset
    CL - Sherrill

    Still plenty of depth and trading possibilities.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    I go both as well, mth, but for different reasons. For the 2010 season, the NL Central is, so far, really weak and likely to stay there. St. Louis has holes at SS, 2B, RF, and two starting spots, not to mention the bullpen, yet they're the class of the division. Houston and Pittsburgh are non-contenders already, and both Milwaukee and Chicago have actually gotten weaker this year than last.

    In short, the NL Central is not great.

    Cincinnati has enough young talent to blossom, assuming they find a SS cheaply and Bruce, Bailey, and Stubbs are legitimately improving to the levels at which prospectors insist they can reach. (And health-- health is the assumption which drives the bus.)

    For next season, 2011, about $15 million will be available, if both Harang and Arroyo are jettisoned. Both Wood and Leake should be ready (or nearly there) as BOR starters, and Volquez, Cueto, and Bailey should be another year along on their way to TOR starters.

    There will be money available for whatever prospects don't pan out. (And there will be a few, at best. Most, likely. All, perhaps.) And, if the Reds don't compete this year, both Harang and Arroyo can be sent away (along with whatever other large contracts other teams will accept) for other prospects that may also help.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: 2010 or 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    The "quandary" of trying to replace Arroyo and Harang with the payflex achieved--after you pay some part of their contracts to another club--is why they're still here--and why Walt looks "inactive." The primary way of replacing them would be to go into the free agent market, but the same clubs that are interested in them can also go into the free agent market and acquire the very guys you'd like as replacements for Harang or Arroyo--and those clubs are more likely to acquire these pitchers than we are because they're generally more attractive places to pitch--L.A., for instance.
    Let’s just say for the sake of saving words back and forth that what you have said is exactly perfect.

    Are we being overly optimistic that a general manager of the Reds could replace the current pitchers with better performers or equal to their performances for less money, and shorter contractual lengths? I really don’t know the answer to that. Yet, somehow I think we are with the limited availability and competition for the same better pitchers that would meet the needs of the Reds for better pitching, and ability to pay. I know we don’t want pitchers with worse performances.

    Code:
    According to rotoworld.com for 2010 and 2011 
    Aaron Harang 		2010: $12.5 million	2011: $12.75 million 
    Bronson Arroyo 	        2010: $11.0 million	2011: $11.0  million 
    Francisco Cordero 	2010: $12.0 million	2011: $12.0  million
    Total 			2010: $35.5 million	2011: $35.75 million
    Aaron Harang
    2009: $11 million, 2010: $12.5 million, 2011: $12.75 million club option w/$2 million buyout (becomes $14.5 million mutual option if traded), 2012: Free Agent
    http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...rt=MLB&id=3475

    Bronson Arroyo
    2009: $9.5 million, 2010: $11 million, 2011: $11 million club option w/$2 million buyout (option can increase to $13 million), 2012: Free Agent
    http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...rt=MLB&id=3049

    Francisco Cordero
    2009: $12 million, 2010: $12 million, 2011: $12 million, 2012: $12 million club option w/$1 million buyout, 2013: Free Agent
    http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...rt=MLB&id=2866

    * source contract info, rotoworld.com

    Code:
    Francisco Cordero 
    	         IP  H   R   ER   HR BB SO  W L   SV   HLD BLSV   ERA
    2009 Cin 	66.2 58  21  16   2  30 58  2 6   39    0   4     2.16
    2008 Cin 	70.1 61  28  26   6  38 78  5 4   34    0   6     3.33
    2007 Mil 	63.1 52  23  21   4  18 86  0 4   44    0   7     2.98
    
    Bronson Arroyo 
    	         IP    H   R   ER HR  BB SO  W   L  ERA
    2009 Cin 	220.1 214 101  94 31  65 127 15 13  3.84
    2008 Cin 	200.0 219 116 106 29  68 163 15 11  4.77
    2007 Cin 	210.2 232 109  99 28  63 156  9 15  4.23
    2006 Cin 	240.2 222  98  88 31  64 184 14 11  3.29
    
    Aaron Harang 
    		 IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB SO  W   L   ERA
    2009 Cin 	162.1 186  82 76  24  43 142  6  14  4.21
    2008 Cin 	184.1 205 104 98  35  50 153  6  17  4.79
    2007 Cin 	231.2 213 100 96  28  52 218 16   6  3.73
    2006 Cin 	234.1 242 109 98  28  56 216 16  11  3.76
    * source pitching stats ESPN

    I also wonder if we are being overly optimistic about the younger pitchers, Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, and any other's that have not proven as much as these three have, Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez, that still have work to do in growing and developing as starters.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 01-03-2010 at 10:19 PM.


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