Holliday resigns with Cardinals

[Homer Bailey]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4799313

Matt Holliday has chosen the St. Louis Cardinals.


On Tuesday, the free-agent slugger announced on The Doug Gottlieb Show on ESPN Radio that he is re-signing with the Cardinals.


Holliday said that the deal was for seven years and between $119 million and $120 million with a team option at the end of the contract. He also said the deal is pending a physical.


The three-time All-Star came to St. Louis from the Oakland Athletics in a July deadline trade last season. He batted .313 with 24 home runs and 109 RBIs between the two clubs.


Holliday is a career .318 hitter in six seasons.

[VR]

Wow, I'm kinda happy about that.

What does that mean for a Pujols deal? 30M per?

[redsfandan]

Yes, YES, Yes!!!! he he

[UKFlounder]

Did he "chose" the Cardinals or was that choice made for him?

[Spring~Fields]

So does this mean that the Reds ownership will turn it up a notch to come within range of the competition?

[Will M]

a 7 year deal for a 30 year old left fielder. He will be a plus for them the next few years then that contract is going to be an albatross for them.

[cincrazy]

It's a good deal. If they're signing him, there's no way they let Pujols leave.

Maybe it is a small risk, but it's a hell of a deal IMO. I'd love to be wrong. I hope it blows up in their face. But I don't see it.

That franchise has the committment to winning that Cincinnati should have.

You tell me, how is the market in St. Louis THAT different from the market in Cincy? Because I don't see it.

[LawFive]

You tell me, how is the market in St. Louis THAT different from the market in Cincy? Because I don't see it.

For one, their fanbase is much less fickle than Reds'. Cincinnati tends to be a bandwagon city, no matter what team you're talking about. St Louis could go 62-100 and they still would probably get 35k per night.

[redsfandan]

Let's see, when/if they resign Pujols it could be between $45M/yr for all of two players. Add in that Loshe is scheduled to make $11.875M in 2012, Wainwright has a 2012 option for $9M, and if they pick up the option on Carpenter he'll make $15M in 2012. Even if they restructure some contracts they won't have a lot left for the other players going by what their payroll has been in the past.

Maybe their payroll will be bumped up but they could conceivably have a 1/3 of their payroll taken up by Holliday and Pujols alone in a couple years. And I'm not sure if there is a team that could have so much of their payroll taken up by so few players. Unless all of a sudden they become the Yankees they could be in payroll hell in a few years. So way to go Cardinals!

[Will M]

Let's see, when/if they resign Pujols it could be between $40M-$45M/yr for all of two players. Loshe is scheduled to make $11.875M in 2012, Wainwright has a 2012 option for $9M, and if they pick up the option on Carpenter he'll make $15M in 2012. Even if they restructure some contracts they won't have a lot left for the other players going by what their payroll has been in the past. Maybe their payroll will be bumped up but there are only a few teams that can carry those kind of contracts and I'm not sure if there is a team that could have so much of their payroll taken up by so few players. Unless they all of a sudden become the Yankees they could be in payroll hell in a few years. So way to go Cardinals!

your math adds up to ~$76-81M for the big four plus Lohse. If their payroll is in their usual $90M range that leaves $9-14M for the other 20 guys. Hard to find enough solid complimentary players for that amount of money.

Look at their current team: they have just ok or questionable bats at 2B, SS, 3B, CF & RF. their SP relies on Penny to be the Giants version not the Red Sox version. And he is their #3 guy. Lohse & a prayer are their #4 & #5.

are they the favorites to win the NL Central in 2010? yes. Pujols, Holliday & two TOR starters can mask a lot of holes. are they invincible in 2010? no. they still have a lot of holes.

[Will M]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-the-cardinals

Holliday Returns to the Cardinals
by Matt Klaassen - 1/5/2010

In a stunning turn of events, Jon Heyman managed to break a story about one of Scott Boras's clients, reporting that Matt Holliday has resigned with the Cardinals for seven years and 120 million dollars with a full no-trade clause.

Make no mistake about it: Although he didn't receive "Mark Teixeira money," Holliday, who turns 30 next week, is a tremendous baseball player. Over the last 4 years, he's accumulated about 24 Wins Above Replacement -- an average of 6 wins a year. Of course, the Cardinals aren't paying for what he's already done, but what he will do in the future.

What are the Cardinals paying for? The market is still working itself out, but assuming an average market value of $4.4 million per marginal win, seven percent annual salary inflation, and 0.5 WAR a year decline, seven years, $120 million dollars indicates a 4.5 WAR player for 2010. With that number in mind, what is a reasonable projection for Holliday?

CHONE's context-neutral projection for Holliday's 2010 offense is .303/.379/.513, 29 runs above average per 150 games. (by the time you're reading this, Sean may have moved Holliday to the Cardinal's team page and adjusted for league and park). My own projection is very close to CHONE's.

Holliday's defensive reputation may have taken a hit in the minds of many during the 2009 playoffs, but most fielding metrics see Holliday as an above-average left fielder. Earlier this offseason (before most projections had come out), I used UZR and the Fans Scouting report and estimated Holliday's defense at +4, and Jeff Zimmerman's recent UZR projections get the same result. Taking into account the positional adjustment for left field (-7.5/162), let's call Holliday a -3 fielder per 150 games.

Adding it all up: +29/150 offense, -3/150 fielding, +20/150 replacement level = 4.6 WAR player. For all practical purposes, given the assumptions we're working with (and dealing only with the guaranteed years of the contract), St. Louis gave Holliday a contract almost exactly in line with his market value.

It has been said before, but it's worth repeating: paying average market value for a win isn't necessarily a "dumb" move, but it isn't "smart" either. It's "average" ...on average. Moreover, straight market value isn't the only factor to consider in this particular case. Leaving aside the possibility that the actual value of a win might actually be lower this offseason (dropping it down to $4.4 million, the market value of a 4.5 WAR player over 7 years drops to about $109 million), seven years is a long time for a corner outfielder in his thirties. Yes, the 0.5 win-a-season decline curve takes this into account to a certain extent, but when a team gives a player a contract this long, it not only guarantees their "control" over the player, but also gives him a higher degree of security through his likely decline years. For this reason, players usually give something of a "discount" for that security. The Cardinals did not get such a discount. Moreover, the no-trade clause inhibits the Cardinals' flexibility down the road -- and even if Holliday is willing to waive the clause, that is almost always just another negotiating ploy for more money. In other words, that is more value the Cardinals gave up on top of the money for the deal. [I'm leaving aside the vesting option for an eighth year based on MVP voting.]

The Cardinals get a player who should be very good-to great for a couple of years, and above average for maybe a few after that. Perhaps that is worth it to make a run while Albert Pujols is still under contract (and perhaps to convince him to re-sign if there's enough left in the budget to do so while filling the other 23 spots on the roster). Still, paying market value long-term for a player in his thirties involves a great deal of risk for a franchise, and even without the no-trade clause, an expensive Holliday in his mid-to-late thirties would be very difficult to move if St. Louis needs to do so. The road to ruin for many a general manager and franchise is littered with long-term "average" contracts for players like Holliday -- it doesn't take much of a drop-off (injuries, anyone?) to turn a seemingly "reasonable" contract into an albatross. Flags may fly forever, but the only sure winners in this deal are Matt Holliday and Scott Boras.

[Chip R]

It's a good deal. If they're signing him, there's no way they let Pujols leave.

They may not have a choice. I don't think they can keep Holliday and re-sign Pujols at market value if they keep Carpenter, Lohse, pay Wainwright, etc.

You tell me, how is the market in St. Louis THAT different from the market in Cincy? Because I don't see it.

It's not. But they draw 3M a year easy and the Reds struggle to draw 2M. But they can't draw than much more than 3M so even if they sell out every game the most hey can draw is just a shade under 3.8M. So if Pujols gets $20M a year - and that's a huge hometown discount - that's $37M a year for those two guys. It's not impossible but it makes it mighty tough to pay everyone else and have a good team.

[Spring~Fields]

That franchise has the committment to winning that Cincinnati should have.

I agree, St. Louis is a good organization, they put a good product on the field for their paying customers, and their fans respond.

Are the demographics that much differen't in St. Louis from Cincinnati?

[redsmetz]

I agree, St. Louis is a good organization, they put a good product on the field for their paying customers, and their fans respond.

Are the demographics that much different in St. Louis from Cincinnati?

I think the Cardinals market exceeds the Reds by a bit more these days. Wasn't always so, but we know that history. They still retain much of Missouri even when the Royals were a good team. The pick up a good bit of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, some of southern Indiana, half of Iowa, most of Arkansas. I see from their radio affiliate map, they also grab some of northeastern Oklahoma.

http://www.cardsclubhouse.com/guide/...io_network.php

In comparison, see the Reds network: http://mlb.mlb.com/cin/schedule/cin_...ffiliates.jsp; good coverage in Ohio, parts of Kentucky, Indiana and West Virginia and one station each in Virginia, Tennessee and Illinois. Virginia may grow with the Reds A club moving there, but that's not a given.

[Spring~Fields]

Thank you redsmetz for that information.