1. ## PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

I thought it might be useful to have a thread for general PROject proJECT discussion. If you have an idea of something you'd like to see in the spreadsheet, let me know here. I'll also use it to talk about what I'm doing in the record keeping and calculations.

3. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

One thing that's wonky about Google docs is you can't define your own numbering formats unless you enter it as a formula. This is most noticeable in stats like BA, OBP, SLG and OPS because there is no numbering format with 3 decimal places. I'm able to make it display OK in the top summary section by using the "=TEXT(value, "0.000") function but not when I enter the data from the projections. I mean, I could, but it's a PITA/I'm lazy.

4. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

OK, here's a question: should we do a projection on Aroldis Chapman?

5. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

Originally Posted by nate
OK, here's a question: should we do a projection on Aroldis Chapman?
YES!

6. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
YES!
Heh, OBM!

Here's what I'm thinking. We'll do the 25-man then we'll round out the 40-man.

How's that?

Sounds good.

8. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

I wonder if anyone has any suggestions on how I might "marry" projections that consist only of rate stats with those that have counting stats and / or both.

Also, what about weighting projections based on playing time? Is it a good idea? Aroldis Chapman, for example, has quite a wide range of projections for IP. It would seem odd to give a 1.5 ERA in 19 IP the same weight as a 5.4 ERA in 100 IP.

9. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

Originally Posted by nate
I wonder if anyone has any suggestions on how I might "marry" projections that consist only of rate stats with those that have counting stats and / or both.

Also, what about weighting projections based on playing time? Is it a good idea? Aroldis Chapman, for example, has quite a wide range of projections for IP. It would seem odd to give a 1.5 ERA in 19 IP the same weight as a 5.4 ERA in 100 IP.
Figure out the actual earned runs for each projection. Add them all up and then calculate ERA based on that.

10. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

Originally Posted by dougdirt
Figure out the actual earned runs for each projection. Add them all up and then calculate ERA based on that.
Right. I'm thinking of generating all rate stats from counting stats. The problem comes when someone hasn't projected any counting stats or playing time. However, I'm thinking of just doing the best I can to "reverse engineer" their projection using, perhaps, the average of everyone else's playing time projection along with the average of anything else needed to generate the desired stat.

If that makes sense.

11. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

Originally Posted by nate
I thought it might be useful to have a thread for general PROject proJECT discussion. If you have an idea of something you'd like to see in the spreadsheet, let me know here. I'll also use it to talk about what I'm doing in the record keeping and calculations.
Yeah,
yes sir MR. Nate.

I have a question or suggestion. An ornery one.

So when are we going to project the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers to see how all this projecting of the Reds stacks up to the comparison of the competition?

Before you say it. No, oh no, I am not volunteering to do that.

I did get as far as looking at some of the OPS and OBP for the Cards and Cubs players, then said forget that, maybe Nate will do it.

12. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

Originally Posted by Spring~Fields
Yeah,
yes sir MR. Nate.

I have a question or suggestion. An ornery one.

So when are we going to project the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers to see how all this projecting of the Reds stacks up to the comparison of the competition?

Before you say it. No, oh no, I am not volunteering to do that.

I did get as far as looking at some of the OPS and OBP for the Cards and Cubs players, then said forget that, maybe Nate will do it.

Heh.

I'm pretty sure I won't get to the Cubs or Cards. But maybe it would be interesting to take a look at their projections from Fangraphs and see what others think their players can do.

13. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

Let me know if this seems correct. If you go to the hitters page and to Ramon Hernandez' tab, check out (just as an example) the line pahster projected:

350 PA, .260/.320/.380

So, it would seem to me that I could derive from that:

*walk rate (OBP-BA)
*a fair approximation of AB (PA * Walk Rate)
*a fair approximation of the number of hits (AB * BA)

Does that seem correct or is my baseball math off somewhat?

14. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

It's a shame I don't know this but perhaps some of those more knowledgeable about the minor leaguers can chime in. Are any of these 40-man roster guys worth projecting for the Reds in 2010?

Logan Ondrusek
Jordan Smith
Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette

Thanks!

15. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

Originally Posted by nate
It's a shame I don't know this but perhaps some of those more knowledgeable about the minor leaguers can chime in. Are any of these 40-man roster guys worth projecting for the Reds in 2010?

Logan Ondrusek
Jordan Smith
Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette

Thanks!
Personally I think Ondrusek has a shot at being in the pen at some point in '10 assuming injuries and/or september call up. I don't believe Valiquette will at all and Smith I'd be on the fence leaning away from him contributing this season.

16. ## Re: PROject proJECT 2010 Discussion thread

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo
Personally I think Ondrusek has a shot at being in the pen at some point in '10 assuming injuries and/or september call up. I don't believe Valiquette will at all and Smith I'd be on the fence leaning away from him contributing this season.
OK, maybe I'll save these cats for last.

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