Optimum lineup run simulations -

To project:

runs scored per game

seasons runs scored projections

Using:

The James 2010 projections,

Chone 2010 projections,

2009 actual season player stats,

by order of highest OPS and necessary positions such as ss and c, or regular starters such as 1B, 3B, 2B

Code:

2010 James Projections 2010 Chone Projections
- ordered by highest OPS projections - ordered by highest OPS projections
BA OBP SLG OPS BA OBP SLG OPS
Votto .311 .397 .550 .947 Votto .303 .381 .528 .909
Bruce .274 .340 .537 .877 Bruce .283 .349 .537 .886
Dickerson .276 .372 .429 .801 Balentien .265 .342 .487 .829
Rolen .278 .357 .442 .799 Rolen .275 .350 .430 .780
Nix .257 .309 .467 .776 Phillips .272 .324 .443 .767
Rosales .260 .331 .434 .765 Nix .251 .306 .456 .762
Phillips .269 .322 .434 .756 Dickerson .252 .348 .409 .757
Balentien .244 .316 .431 .747 Rosales .255 .324 .417 .741
Sutton ** .230 .314 .404 .741 Sutton .230 .314 .404 .741
Hernandez .260 .328 .405 .733 Hernandez .257 .329 .405 .734
Hanigan .277 .361 .366 .727 Hanigan .266 .347 .372 .719
Stubbs .267 .336 .390 .726 Stubbs .251 .328 .380 .708
Tevaras .271 .322 .321 .643 Janish .234 .309 .347 .656
Janish .223 .301 .319 .620 Tevaras .263 .314 .333 .647
Sutton ** Did not have a James projection, Chone projection was substituted
2009 actual season stats.
- ordered by highest OPS projections
BA OBP SLG OPS
Votto .322 .414 .567 .981
Balentien .264 .352 .427 .779
Phillips .276 .329 .447 .776
Bruce .223 .303 .470 .773
Nix .239 .291 .476 .767
Rolen .270 .364 .401 .766
Stubbs .267 .323 .439 .762
Dickerson .275 .370 .373 .743
Hernandez .258 .336 .362 .699
Hanigan .263 .361 .331 .692
Sutton .212 .297 .348 .646
Rosales .213 .303 .317 .620
Janish .211 .296 .305 .601
Tevaras .240 .275 .285 .559

**Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis applying the 1959 - 2004 model **

Using James 2010 projections by OPS

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game

4.312 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Hernandez Janish Nix Pitcher

4.312 runs per game x 162 games = 698.544 runs scored projection

4.310 Dickerson Votto Nix Rolen Bruce Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher

4.310 runs per game x 162 games = 698.22 runs scored projection

4.310 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish

4.310 runs per game x 162 games = 698.22 runs scored projection

**Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model **

Using Chone 2010 projections by OPS

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game

4.287 Dickerson Votto Rolen Bruce Balentien Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher

4.287 runs per game x 162 games = 694.494 runs scored projection

4.286 Dickerson Votto Rolen Balentien Bruce Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher

4.286 runs per game x 162 games = 694.332 runs scored projection

4.286 Dickerson Votto Balentien Rolen Bruce Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher

4.286 runs per game x 162 games = 694.332 runs scored projection

4.285 Dickerson Votto Balentien Bruce Rolen Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher

4.285 runs per game x 162 games = 693.36 runs scored projection

4.285 Dickerson Votto Rolen Bruce Balentien Janish Hernandez Phillips Pitcher

4.285 runs per game x 162 games = 693.36 runs scored projection

**Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model **

Using 2009 Actual Player stats by OPS

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game

4.115 Rolen Votto Bruce Balentien Phillips Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish

4.115 runs per game x 162 games = 666.63 runs scored projection

4.114 Rolen Votto Phillips Balentien Bruce Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish

4.114 runs per game x 162 games = 666.468 runs scored projection

4.112 Rolen Votto Nix Balentien Phillips Pitcher Hernandez Bruce Janish

4.112 runs per game x 162 games = 666.144 runs scored projection

4.111 Rolen Votto Bruce Phillips Balentien Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish

4.111 runs per game x 162 games = 665.982 runs scored projection

4.111 Rolen Votto Phillips Balentien Nix Pitcher Hernandez Bruce Janish

4.111 runs per game x 162 games = 665.982 runs scored projection

Since the manager decisions overrides James, Chone, Actual Player Stats for 2009 and Lineup simulations, I have ran what is his traditional order with three options in center field, also a left field option based upon the appearance of preference in 2009

Code:

**Appearance 1 Appearance 2 Appearance 3 **
Center Field - Tevaras Center Field - Stubbs Center Field - Stubbs
Shortstop - Janish Shortstop - Janish Shortstop - Janish
First Base - Votto First Base - Votto First Base - Votto
Second Base - Phillips Second Base - Phillips Second Base - Phillips
Third Base - Rolen Third Base - Rolen Third Base - Rolen
Right Field - Bruce Right Field - Bruce Right Field - Bruce
Left Field - Dickerson Left Field - Dickerson Left Field - Nix
Catcher - Hernandez Catcher - Hernandez Catcher - Hernandez
Pitcher - -- Pitcher - -- Pitcher - --

**Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model **

Using Traditional Manager Lineups with James projections stats by OPS

Manager Lineups from “Appearance 1” & Runs Per Game

Tevaras Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Dickerson Hernandez Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 3.998 x 162 games = 647.676 runs scored

**Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game**

4.182 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Rolen Bruce Pitcher Janish Phillips Tevaras

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.182 x 162 games = 677.484 runs scored

4.182 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Pitcher Janish Hernandez Tevaras

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.182 x 162 games = 677.484 runs scored

4.179 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Bruce Rolen Pitcher Janish Phillips Tevaras

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.179 x 162 games = 676.998 runs scored

4.179 Dickerson Votto Phillips Bruce Rolen Pitcher Janish Hernandez Tevaras

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.179 x 162 games = 676.998 runs scored

4.178 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Rolen Bruce Pitcher Tevaras Phillips Janish

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.178 x 162 games = 676.836 runs scored

Conservatively 676.836 runs scored - 647.676 runs scored

the manager can potentially cost 29.16 runs scored

by not optimizing the lineup using James projections and Baseball Musings lineup simulator.

**Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model **

Using Traditional Manager Lineups with Chone projections stats by OPS

Manager Lineups from “Appearance 2” & Runs Per Game

Stubbs Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Dickerson Hernandez Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.014 x 162 games = 650.268 runs scored

**Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game**

4.138 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Janish Stubbs Hernandez Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored

4.138 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Rolen Bruce Janish Stubbs Phillips Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored

4.138 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Stubbs Janish Hernandez Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored

4.138 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Rolen Bruce Stubbs Janish Phillips Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored

4.138 Dickerson Votto Phillips Bruce Rolen Janish Stubbs Hernandez Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored

Conservatively 670.356 runs scored - 650.268 runs scored

the manager can potentially cost 20.088 runs scored

by not optimizing the lineup using Chone projections and Baseball Musings lineup simulator.

**Runs per game for above lineup: 3.998 x 162 games = 647.676 runs scored**

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model

Using Traditional Manager Lineups with 2009 Actual player stats by OPS

Manager Lineups from “Appearance 3” & Runs Per Game

Stubbs Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Nix Hernandez Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 3.855 x 162 games = 624.51 runs scored

**Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game**

4.075 Rolen Votto Bruce Phillips Stubbs Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.075 x 162 games = 660.15 runs

4.075 Rolen Votto Stubbs Phillips Bruce Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.075 x 162 games = 660.15 runs

4.074 Rolen Votto Bruce Stubbs Phillips Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.074 x 162 games = 659.988 runs scored

4.074 Rolen Votto Phillips Stubbs Bruce Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.074 x 162 games = 659.988 runs scored

4.073 Rolen Votto Nix Phillips Stubbs Pitcher Hernandez Bruce Janish

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.073 x 162 games = 659.826 runs scored

Conservatively 659.826 runs scored - 624.51 runs scored the manager can potentially cost 35.316 runs scored

by not optimizing the lineup using Chone projections and Baseball Musings lineup simulator

**Using James 2010 projections with optimized lineups from Baseball Musings**

4.312 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Hernandez Janish Nix Pitcher

4.312 runs per game x 162 games = **698.544 runs scored projection**

**Using Chone 2010 projections with optimized lineups from Baseball Musings**

4.287 Dickerson Votto Rolen Bruce Balentien Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher

4.287 runs per game x 162 games = **694.494 runs scored projection**

**Using 2009 actual players stats, to project 2010 with optimized lineups from Baseball Musings**

4.115 Rolen Votto Bruce Balentien Phillips Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish

4.115 runs per game x 162 games = **666.63 runs scored projection**

Using Traditional Manager Lineups with **James projections** stats by OPS

Using Manager Lineups from “Appearance 1” & Runs Per Game

Tevaras Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Dickerson Hernandez Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 3.998 x 162 games = **647.676 runs scored projection**

Using Traditional Manager Lineups with **Chone projections** stats by OPS

Using Manager Lineups from “Appearance 2” & Runs Per Game

Stubbs Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Dickerson Hernandez Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 4.014 x 162 games = **650.268 runs scored projection**

Using Traditional Manager Lineups with **2009 actual player stats** stats by OPS

Using Manager Lineups from “Appearance 3” & Runs Per Game

Stubbs Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Nix Hernandez Pitcher

Runs per game for above lineup: 3.855 x 162 games = **624.51 runs scored projection**

Code:

Last three seasons Runs Scored by Cincinnati Reds
Season Actual Runs Scored 2010Season Run Projection Runs scored projection
2009 673 Using James 698.544
2008 704 Using Chone 694.494
2007 783 2009 actual player stats 663.630
James Manager choice appearance 1 647.676
Chone Manager choice appearance 2 650.268
2009 act’l player Manager choice appearance 3 624.510

We can see from using either James player projections for 2010, Chone player projections for 2010, or by using the actual player stats for 2009 that Reds do not project to significantly improve on runs scored for the season of 2010 compared to the actual runs scored from the previous three seasons.

**The projected runs scored for 2010 **

For James compared to 2009 runs scored is 698.544 - 673.000 = + 25.544 Runs scored projection in 2010

For Chone compared to 2009 runs scored is 694.494 - 673.000 = + 21.494 Runs scored projection in 2010

For Actual 2009 player stats runs scored is 663.630 - 673.000 = - 9.37 Runs scored projection in 2010

Code:

Central Division Competition Last three seasons Runs scored
Chicago St. Louis Milwaukee Houston Pittsburgh Cincinnati
2009 707 730 785 643 636 673
2008 855 779 750 712 735 704
2007 752 725 801 723 724 783