Projections For Reds Players That I Saw On Fangraphs

[Spring~Fields]

Projections for Reds players that I saw on fangraphs.

The 2010 season projections are posted beneath the actual's for the past two seasons of the individual players for your comparisons. I thought that it might make it more convenient for some. I received the idea from what OBM posted on the outfielders and Nates projection post.

2009		 BA   OBP  SLG  OPS	TPA 	2008	      BA   OBP  SLG  OPS TPA 
1. Votto 	.322 .414 .567 .981  	544	1. Votto     .297 .368 .506 .874 589
James Proj	.311 .397 .550 .947
Chone Proj	.303 .381 .528 .909

2. Phillips 	.276 .329 .447 .776	644	2. Phillips  .261 .312 .442 .754 644
James Proj	.269 .322 .434 .756
Chone Proj	.272 .324 .443 .767

3. Balentien 	.264 .352 .427 .779	125	3. Balentien .202 .250 .342 .592 260
James Proj	.244 .316 .431 .747
Chone Proj	.265 .342 .487 .829

4. Bruce 	.223 .303 .470 .773	387	4. Bruce     .254 .314 .453 .767 452
James Proj	.274 .340 .537 .877
Chone Proj	.283 .349 .537 .886
FanG All Fans   .271 .343 .497 .840

5. Rolen 	.270 .364 .401 .766	162	5. Rolen     .262 .349 .431 .780 467
James Proj	.278 .357 .442 .799
Chone Proj	.275 .350 .430 .780

6. Stubbs	.267 .323 .439 .762	196	6. Stubbs ML .277 .371 .417 .788 548
James Proj	.267 .336 .390 .726
Chone Proj	.251 .328 .380 .708

7. Dickerson 	.275 .370 .373 .743	299	7. Dickerson .304 .413 .608 1.021 122
James Proj	.276 .372 .429 .801
Chone Proj	.252 .348 .409 .757
 
8. Hernandez	.258 .336 .362 .699	331	8. Hernandez .257 .308 .406 .714 507
James Proj	.260 .328 .405 .733
Chone Proj	.257 .329 .405 .734

9. Hanigan	.263 .361 .331 .692	293	9. Hanigan   .271 .367 .365 .732   98
James Proj	.277 .361 .366 .727
Chone Proj	.266 .347 .372 .719

10. Sutton 	.212 .297 .348 .646  	  76	10. Sutton AA .317 .408 .523 .931 606 
Chone Proj 	.230 .314 .404 .741
	
11. Rosales	.213 .303 .317 .620  	266	11. Rosales   .207 .233 .241 .475  30
James Proj  	.260 .331 .434 .765
Chone Proj	.255 .324 .417 .741

12. Janish	.211 .296 .305 .601	292	12. Janish   .188  .270 .250 .520  89
James Proj	.223 .301 .319 .620
Chone Proj	.234 .309 .347 .656

13. Tevaras 	.240 .275 .285 .559	437	13. Tevaras  .251  .308 .296 .604 538
James Proj	.271 .322 .321 .643
Chone Proj	.263 .314 .333 .647

14. Nix  	.239 .291 .476 .767	337	14. Nix      .083  .154 .083 .237 13
James Proj	.257 .309 .467 .776
Chone Proj	.251 .306 .456 .762

In your opinion are the projections right in the neighborhood or are they too low or too high for the individual players for the coming season?

Or actually, any other obeservations that one might draw from these projections/actuals comparisons?

[sonny]

Rosales' projections are interesting. Wonder what they see in him to forecast those numbers.

[RedsManRick]

Rosales' projections are interesting. Wonder what they see in him to forecast those numbers.

Probably a much higher minor league ISO than he put up in the majors and a .250 BABIP that is likely to regress towards .300.

[Spring~Fields]

Rosales' projections are interesting. Wonder what they see in him to forecast those numbers.

I was hoping that some of the more advanced could answer our questions like the one that you have on Rosales, and on other players that we might have.

That they would explain the methodologies, or process that leads to some of the differentiations of either going upward or downward in the projections in comparison to the two different projections, and also how the projection methodologist come to this in comparison to the actual in the previous season or two.

I assume that some of it is effected by a projected playing time that carries an uncertainty. Of course the projections that I am most comfortable with are the ones that are more closely aligned with the actual of either 2009 or 2008.

Also I was interested in the projected on base percentages for the individual players, while I was looking to see if we could gather any insights from those. Sometimes I like to look at those to see how the player might be doing or projected to do in their development in the art of hitting at the major league level in their career. Are their skills improving or are they regressing? Will the aggregate enable enough scoring opportunities and chances.

Since the OBP formula takes into account the following:
On-base percentage
(H + BB + HBP) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SF)

I make an assumption, right or wrong, that if the player shows increases here that, their skill level or development is improving, or if it is in decline, that they are regressing.

It also leads me to wonder, if a batter is not showing much improvement in OBP, then how can we expect greater increases that the projections might show in BA, SLG, and the overall OPS of OBP and SLG. I mean if, OBP could be fairly used as a reflection to indicate a players skill and talent levels in the present and recent past few years.

Leading to a question of how will we experience more runs scored for a team if the OBP does not improve.

[HokieRed]

On Rosales, I'm reminded Rick Sweet thought he could play ML SS.

[dougdirt]

I was hoping that some of the more advanced could answer our questions like the one that you have on Rosales, and on other players that we might have.

That they would explain the methodologies, or process that leads to some of the differentiations of either going upward or downward in the projections in comparison to the two different projections, and also how the projection methodologist come to this in comparison to the actual in the previous season or two.

I really have no clue how James gets his projections. CHONE though uses past data in a 7-5-3 weighted model for the past 3 seasons and has factors for age (increases for young guys, decreases for older guys). Most projection systems work on a 3 year scale similar to this with slightly different weighting models (some use 5-3-1) and slightly differeing escalators for ages, but they are all based on historical data for other players of that age and how they progress/regress season by season.

[Scrap Irony]

On Rosales, I'm reminded Rick Sweet thought he could play ML SS.

I wouldn't be entirely suprised to see Rosales go all Jerry Hairston, Jr., in 2010. H could be a decent offensive option at SS. Assuming he improves with the bat, as he has every other year in the minors.

As to the rest of the projections, the Reds would have:

1. Stubbs CF 700 OPS
2. Dickerson/ Balentien LF 800 OPS
3. Votto 1B 900 OPS
4. Bruce RF 883 OPS
5. Rolen 3B 790 OPS
6. Phillips 2B 764 OPS
7. Hernandez/ Hanigan C 725 OPS
8. Janish SS 638 OPS

[Spring~Fields]

Optimum lineup run simulations -
To project:
runs scored per game
seasons runs scored projections
Using:
The James 2010 projections,
Chone 2010 projections,
2009 actual season player stats,
by order of highest OPS and necessary positions such as ss and c, or regular starters such as 1B, 3B, 2B

 
2010	James Projections 			2010 Chone Projections
- ordered by highest OPS projections		- ordered by highest OPS projections 
                 BA   OBP  SLG  OPS				BA   OBP  SLG   OPS
Votto  		.311 .397 .550 .947		Votto 		.303 .381 .528 .909
Bruce 		.274 .340 .537 .877		Bruce 		.283 .349 .537 .886
Dickerson 	.276 .372 .429 .801		Balentien 	.265 .342 .487 .829
Rolen 		.278 .357 .442 .799		Rolen 		.275 .350 .430 .780
Nix  		.257 .309 .467 .776		Phillips 	.272 .324 .443 .767
Rosales		.260 .331 .434 .765		Nix  		.251 .306 .456 .762
Phillips  	.269 .322 .434 .756		Dickerson 	.252 .348 .409 .757
Balentien 	.244 .316 .431 .747		Rosales		.255 .324 .417 .741
Sutton 	**	.230 .314 .404 .741		Sutton 		.230 .314 .404 .741
Hernandez 	.260 .328 .405 .733		Hernandez	.257 .329 .405 .734
Hanigan		.277 .361 .366 .727		Hanigan		.266 .347 .372 .719
Stubbs		.267 .336 .390 .726		Stubbs		.251 .328 .380 .708
Tevaras 	.271 .322 .321 .643		Janish		.234 .309 .347 .656
Janish 		.223 .301 .319 .620		Tevaras 	.263 .314 .333 .647
Sutton ** Did not have a James projection, Chone projection was substituted 

2009 actual season stats. 
- ordered by highest OPS projections		 
                 BA   OBP  SLG  OPS
Votto 		.322 .414 .567 .981
Balentien	.264 .352 .427 .779
Phillips	.276 .329 .447 .776
Bruce		.223 .303 .470 .773
Nix  		.239 .291 .476 .767
Rolen 		.270 .364 .401 .766
Stubbs		.267 .323 .439 .762
Dickerson 	.275 .370 .373 .743
Hernandez	.258 .336 .362 .699
Hanigan		.263 .361 .331 .692
Sutton 		.212 .297 .348 .646
Rosales		.213 .303 .317 .620
Janish		.211 .296 .305 .601
Tevaras 	.240 .275 .285 .559

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis applying the 1959 - 2004 model
Using James 2010 projections by OPS
Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game
4.312 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Hernandez Janish Nix Pitcher
4.312 runs per game x 162 games = 698.544 runs scored projection
4.310 Dickerson Votto Nix Rolen Bruce Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher
4.310 runs per game x 162 games = 698.22 runs scored projection
4.310 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish
4.310 runs per game x 162 games = 698.22 runs scored projection

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model
Using Chone 2010 projections by OPS
Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game
4.287 Dickerson Votto Rolen Bruce Balentien Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher
4.287 runs per game x 162 games = 694.494 runs scored projection
4.286 Dickerson Votto Rolen Balentien Bruce Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher
4.286 runs per game x 162 games = 694.332 runs scored projection
4.286 Dickerson Votto Balentien Rolen Bruce Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher
4.286 runs per game x 162 games = 694.332 runs scored projection
4.285 Dickerson Votto Balentien Bruce Rolen Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher
4.285 runs per game x 162 games = 693.36 runs scored projection
4.285 Dickerson Votto Rolen Bruce Balentien Janish Hernandez Phillips Pitcher
4.285 runs per game x 162 games = 693.36 runs scored projection

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model
Using 2009 Actual Player stats by OPS
Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game
4.115 Rolen Votto Bruce Balentien Phillips Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish
4.115 runs per game x 162 games = 666.63 runs scored projection
4.114 Rolen Votto Phillips Balentien Bruce Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish
4.114 runs per game x 162 games = 666.468 runs scored projection
4.112 Rolen Votto Nix Balentien Phillips Pitcher Hernandez Bruce Janish
4.112 runs per game x 162 games = 666.144 runs scored projection
4.111 Rolen Votto Bruce Phillips Balentien Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish
4.111 runs per game x 162 games = 665.982 runs scored projection
4.111 Rolen Votto Phillips Balentien Nix Pitcher Hernandez Bruce Janish
4.111 runs per game x 162 games = 665.982 runs scored projection

Since the manager decisions overrides James, Chone, Actual Player Stats for 2009 and Lineup simulations, I have ran what is his traditional order with three options in center field, also a left field option based upon the appearance of preference in 2009

Appearance 1			Appearance 2			Appearance 3 
Center Field	- Tevaras	Center Field	- Stubbs	Center Field	- Stubbs
Shortstop	- Janish	Shortstop	- Janish	Shortstop	- Janish
First Base	- Votto		First Base	- Votto		First Base	- Votto	
Second Base	- Phillips	Second Base	- Phillips	Second Base	- Phillips
Third Base	- Rolen		Third Base	- Rolen		Third Base	- Rolen
Right Field	- Bruce		Right Field	- Bruce		Right Field	- Bruce
Left Field	- Dickerson	Left Field	- Dickerson	Left Field	- Nix
Catcher	-         Hernandez	Catcher	-         Hernandez	Catcher	-         Hernandez
Pitcher 	- --		Pitcher 	- --		Pitcher 	- --

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model
Using Traditional Manager Lineups with James projections stats by OPS

Manager Lineups from “Appearance 1” & Runs Per Game
Tevaras Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Dickerson Hernandez Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 3.998 x 162 games = 647.676 runs scored

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game
4.182 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Rolen Bruce Pitcher Janish Phillips Tevaras
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.182 x 162 games = 677.484 runs scored
4.182 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Pitcher Janish Hernandez Tevaras
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.182 x 162 games = 677.484 runs scored
4.179 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Bruce Rolen Pitcher Janish Phillips Tevaras
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.179 x 162 games = 676.998 runs scored
4.179 Dickerson Votto Phillips Bruce Rolen Pitcher Janish Hernandez Tevaras
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.179 x 162 games = 676.998 runs scored
4.178 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Rolen Bruce Pitcher Tevaras Phillips Janish
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.178 x 162 games = 676.836 runs scored
Conservatively 676.836 runs scored - 647.676 runs scored
the manager can potentially cost 29.16 runs scored
by not optimizing the lineup using James projections and Baseball Musings lineup simulator.

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model
Using Traditional Manager Lineups with Chone projections stats by OPS

Manager Lineups from “Appearance 2” & Runs Per Game
Stubbs Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Dickerson Hernandez Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.014 x 162 games = 650.268 runs scored

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game
4.138 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Janish Stubbs Hernandez Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored
4.138 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Rolen Bruce Janish Stubbs Phillips Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored
4.138 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Stubbs Janish Hernandez Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored
4.138 Dickerson Votto Hernandez Rolen Bruce Stubbs Janish Phillips Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored
4.138 Dickerson Votto Phillips Bruce Rolen Janish Stubbs Hernandez Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.138 x 162 games = 670.356 runs scored
Conservatively 670.356 runs scored - 650.268 runs scored
the manager can potentially cost 20.088 runs scored
by not optimizing the lineup using Chone projections and Baseball Musings lineup simulator.


Runs per game for above lineup: 3.998 x 162 games = 647.676 runs scored
Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis using 1959 - 2004 model
Using Traditional Manager Lineups with 2009 Actual player stats by OPS

Manager Lineups from “Appearance 3” & Runs Per Game
Stubbs Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Nix Hernandez Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 3.855 x 162 games = 624.51 runs scored

Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis Five Best Lineups & Runs Per Game
4.075 Rolen Votto Bruce Phillips Stubbs Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.075 x 162 games = 660.15 runs
4.075 Rolen Votto Stubbs Phillips Bruce Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.075 x 162 games = 660.15 runs
4.074 Rolen Votto Bruce Stubbs Phillips Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.074 x 162 games = 659.988 runs scored
4.074 Rolen Votto Phillips Stubbs Bruce Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.074 x 162 games = 659.988 runs scored
4.073 Rolen Votto Nix Phillips Stubbs Pitcher Hernandez Bruce Janish
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.073 x 162 games = 659.826 runs scored
Conservatively 659.826 runs scored - 624.51 runs scored the manager can potentially cost 35.316 runs scored
by not optimizing the lineup using Chone projections and Baseball Musings lineup simulator

Using James 2010 projections with optimized lineups from Baseball Musings
4.312 Dickerson Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Hernandez Janish Nix Pitcher
4.312 runs per game x 162 games = 698.544 runs scored projection

Using Chone 2010 projections with optimized lineups from Baseball Musings
4.287 Dickerson Votto Rolen Bruce Balentien Hernandez Janish Phillips Pitcher
4.287 runs per game x 162 games = 694.494 runs scored projection

Using 2009 actual players stats, to project 2010 with optimized lineups from Baseball Musings
4.115 Rolen Votto Bruce Balentien Phillips Pitcher Hernandez Nix Janish
4.115 runs per game x 162 games = 666.63 runs scored projection

Using Traditional Manager Lineups with James projections stats by OPS
Using Manager Lineups from “Appearance 1” & Runs Per Game
Tevaras Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Dickerson Hernandez Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 3.998 x 162 games = 647.676 runs scored projection

Using Traditional Manager Lineups with Chone projections stats by OPS
Using Manager Lineups from “Appearance 2” & Runs Per Game
Stubbs Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Dickerson Hernandez Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 4.014 x 162 games = 650.268 runs scored projection

Using Traditional Manager Lineups with 2009 actual player stats stats by OPS
Using Manager Lineups from “Appearance 3” & Runs Per Game
Stubbs Janish Votto Phillips Rolen Bruce Nix Hernandez Pitcher
Runs per game for above lineup: 3.855 x 162 games = 624.51 runs scored projection

Last three seasons Runs Scored by Cincinnati Reds
Season	Actual Runs Scored	2010Season Run Projection	Runs scored projection
2009		673		Using James				698.544	
2008		704		Using Chone				694.494
2007		783		2009 actual player stats	        663.630
		    James	Manager choice appearance 1		647.676		
		    Chone	Manager choice appearance 2		650.268
	   2009 act’l player    Manager choice appearance 3		624.510

We can see from using either James player projections for 2010, Chone player projections for 2010, or by using the actual player stats for 2009 that Reds do not project to significantly improve on runs scored for the season of 2010 compared to the actual runs scored from the previous three seasons.

The projected runs scored for 2010
For James compared to 2009 runs scored is 698.544 - 673.000 = + 25.544 Runs scored projection in 2010
For Chone compared to 2009 runs scored is 694.494 - 673.000 = + 21.494 Runs scored projection in 2010
For Actual 2009 player stats runs scored is 663.630 - 673.000 = - 9.37 Runs scored projection in 2010

Central Division Competition Last three seasons Runs scored
	Chicago	St. Louis  Milwaukee	Houston		Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	
2009	707	 730	    785		643		636		673
2008	855	 779	    750		712		735		704	
2007	752	 725	    801		723		724		783

[Spring~Fields]

I wouldn't be entirely suprised to see Rosales go all Jerry Hairston, Jr., in 2010. H could be a decent offensive option at SS. Assuming he improves with the bat, as he has every other year in the minors.

As to the rest of the projections, the Reds would have:

1. Stubbs CF 700 OPS
2. Dickerson/ Balentien LF 800 OPS
3. Votto 1B 900 OPS
4. Bruce RF 883 OPS
5. Rolen 3B 790 OPS
6. Phillips 2B 764 OPS
7. Hernandez/ Hanigan C 725 OPS
8. Janish SS 638 OPS

I did not come up with the 74 run increase that you gave in, I believe it was, the Gomes thread. As you can see from the projections using James, Chone and even the actual 2009 player stats that the 2010 runs scored projections run close to the actual runs scored for this roster and the previous two rosters. So I don't think the work that I have done here is off very much other than using projections and the differences that can occur with those vs. actuals.

The projected runs scored for 2010
For James compared to 2009 runs scored is 698.544 - 673.000 = + 25.544 Runs scored projection in 2010
For Chone compared to 2009 runs scored is 694.494 - 673.000 = + 21.494 Runs scored projection in 2010
For Actual 2009 player stats runs scored is 663.630 - 673.000 = - 9.37 Runs scored projection in 2010

Central Division Competition Last three seasons Runs scored
	Chicago	St. Louis  Milwaukee	Houston		Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	
2009	707	 730	    785		643		636		673
2008	855	 779	    750		712		735		704	
2007	752	 725	    801		723		724		783

It appears to me that the Reds fans and especially of RedsZone have plenty to be disgruntled about, and especially if Mr. Baker is making out the lineups in 2010 and Tevaras shows his head on any dugout step for the Reds. I can also readily see now the concerns that people have about Janish and his offensive prowess. Jay Bruce has to be everything the projections indicate or the Reds are in big trouble. Dickerson has to play also, and stay healthy and stay in Baker's favor or the projections will take another hit.

[Spring~Fields]

I really have no clue how James gets his projections. CHONE though uses past data in a 7-5-3 weighted model for the past 3 seasons and has factors for age (increases for young guys, decreases for older guys). Most projection systems work on a 3 year scale similar to this with slightly different weighting models (some use 5-3-1) and slightly differeing escalators for ages, but they are all based on historical data for other players of that age and how they progress/regress season by season.

Thanks Doug, I wasn't sure on either. Is James a little more liberal in the numbers or I should say projections than say, Chone? I don't know where I am getting that thought, but, I just felt he was.

[Scrap Irony]

Did you do platoon splits for Balentien and Dickerson in LF? Where, for that matter, is Balentien (the erstwhile LF starter IMO) in any of your lineup musings? Did you factor in Rosales' or Sutton's playing time at SS (and other positions)? What about Hanigan at C or Dickerson in CF with Nix and Balentien splitting time in left?

As to your other "point":

I didn't make up those numbers out of whole cloth. They were from Bill James RAA. Also, once again, you keep forgetting and I keep reminding you that RAA includes defense. You wanted, at that time, to know how the Reds would compete. I showed you, through James' RAA predictions. No amount of bagging on me will change that. They're not my predictions. I didn't make them up-- Bill James did.

Misrepresenting my posts-- purposefully or not-- serve no purpose.

This is the post in question, BTW:

Let's try it this way. Bill James has projected his Runs Above Average for 2010:
Third Base
2010 Rolen + 9 2009 Reds 3B -20
Net: + 29

Center Field
2010 Stubbs + 2 2009 Reds CF -8
Net: + 10

Shortstop
2010 Janish -9 2009 Reds SS -25
Net: + 16

Right Field
2010 Bruce + 23 2009 Reds RF +2
Net: + 21

That's a net gain of +76 runs, which would conservatively make this offense somewhere between slightly below average and above average. It would also be about an 11% increase over last season, though that number is really a shot in the dark. I'd call that huge. (Hell, I did call that huge.)

[Spring~Fields]

Did you do platoon splits for Balentien and Dickerson in LF? Where, for that matter, is Balentien (the erstwhile LF starter IMO) in any of your lineup musings? Did you factor in Rosales' or Sutton's playing time at SS (and other positions)? What about Hanigan at C or Dickerson in CF with Nix and Balentien splitting time in left?

You can see what I did line for line. I took the high road from each of the projections. Taking those others that you mention will project lower numbers. The kind of run support that a Harang would know about. Yes it is too much information to sit and read, but one doesn't have to read every word and line, just gleam over it, I know I doubled checked all the input as I went.

Also by using the projections from James, Chone, 2009 actual baseball stats, by using those three I get an area or range, that shows some improvement but is close to the previous rosters runs scored for the season. Using Baseball Musings, James, Chone, and the actual 2009 stats I also kept myself completely out of it.

Personally I think that the projections for Bruce, Balentien, and Dickerson are high. Though emotionally I want to hope and believe that they are going to do very well, and make it a good year for each of us with the baseball side of entertainment. What I feel doesn't mean anything though. It is what they do that matters as you know.

As a fan I was looking to support the numbers that you found, and I was looking and hoping that the pro's and their projections had factored in that which I did not know or understand and hoped to find genuine increases in runs scored projections using their numbers. But you see what I found at the bottom. Unless Baseball Musings simulator is just a piece of junk. I don't find or get wonderful increases in runs scored for the season projections using their player projections.

I don't know but I suspect the problem is in the lower OBP and a lot of lower OPS players, 700's ?

[Spring~Fields]

Misrepresenting my posts-- purposefully or not-- serve no purpose.

Neither does false presumptions and manipulations on your part.

I am not responsible for your misinterpretation of my post. As you can see from the lengthy post above I went to great lengths to be objective and to keep myself out of it to the extent that I could, of course I had to transfer the numbers to the threads and Baseball Musings, but other than that I was out of the picture as far as thinking and manipulating anything.

I don't misrepresent your post, and I seriously resent that implication as I infer it, especially when I am sitting inside my head, that produces the responses and reactions, and have first hand knowledge of what I think, interpret, process, and the intentions in responding. So I clearly know that you are wrong with your just tossing that out there, recklessly. You have absolutely no factual idea of what I am or what I am not. Purely cultural bias, conjecture, supposition, and perceptual interpretation errors on your part is my best guess.

You said that they were projecting to be a 74 run increase. Was that wrong?

I have shown you and other's that by using James, Chone, Actual stats, comparing them to what other rosters for the same organization achieved actually for around or about the same money accomplished, and those projections that I have come close. What they accomplish with around or about the same players stats. What more can one do?

I know by your response that you did not take the time to read the entire post or cross check it. So where does the misrepresentation reside, within whom?

I suppose that you’re just being emotional , and getting defensive about your estimations that you found out there somewhere, (did you do any of the work yourself or did you just accept their claims?) when you see something to the contrary. Making the whole effort a colossal waste of my time and energy. If you don’t want to accept or don’t like what you see in the numbers, then keep looking until you find some that gives you what you are looking for emotionally.

I showed you here.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...=79629&page=14

You did not like those numbers, that were posted in response to a full and complete post and assertions in the post below.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/newre...eply&p=2003458

Cincinnati sported black holes at catcher, SS, 3B and CF last season. Using RAA (fielding and hitting together), those four positions combined to cost the Reds about 60 runs. Jocketty, last season, addressed CF (with Stubbs), SS (Janish) and 3B (Rolen). IF (notice the capital letters) those three guys become league average, Jocketty has, in essence, "added" around 50 of those 60 runs. That, when considering the 700-800 range is a pretty substantial jump.



Bruce's likely improvement comes from both health and his bat. Not only that, his minor league numbers support the idea that he should improve a great deal. (Remember, he need only improve upon last season's numbers.) Experts across the internet have speculated that, if any Red is a good bet for massive improvement, it's Bruce.

Stubbs need only, as stated earlier, improve upon last season's CF numbers. Because his defense grades out as Gold Glove level, he need only OPS around 690 or so to be league average. He'd need to OPS around 650 to match last season's CF stats. Add in Dickerson and Heisey as fall-backs and it's likely that happens.



Both Baker and Jocketty have told the assembled media that CF is Drew Stubbs' job. No amount of Redszone hand-wringing has made that less so. Taveras, at this point, is, at most, a fourth OF.



I can't say definitively what will happen. I can only say what's likely to happen. Stubbs is likely to be better than Taveras. Rolen is likely to be better than the host of flotsam tried at the hot corner last season. Bruce is likely to be better than he was last season.



Let's try it this way. Bill James has projected his Runs Above Average for 2010:
Third Base
2010 Rolen + 9 2009 Reds 3B -20
Net: + 29

Center Field
2010 Stubbs + 2 2009 Reds CF -8
Net: + 10

Shortstop
2010 Janish -9 2009 Reds SS -25
Net: + 16

Right Field
2010 Bruce + 23 2009 Reds RF +2
Net: + 21

That's a net gain of +76 runs, which would conservatively make this offense somewhere between slightly below average and above average. It would also be about an 11% increase over last season, though that number is really a shot in the dark. I'd call that huge. (Hell, I did call that huge.)



No, not at all. But common sense (not to mention 150 years of baseball history) indicates the Reds won't suffer as many key injuries as last season. Votto should be healthy for most of the season. So will Bruce. Phillips should be fully healthy, and Hernandez shouldn't be as gimpy. With better players healthy, the offense should be slightly better at those positions as well. (Though Votto's BABIP may even out as make the overall Red 1B numbers about the same.)

http://www.redszone.com/forums/newre...eply&p=2003458

I don't see an intentional or material misrepresentation of your post.

[mbgrayson]

Below I have added the projections from Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster. We should add in Baseball Prospectus when the 2010 version is published. It is interesting to see which projections differ materially from the others, and where there is broad consensus.

2009 BA OBP SLG OPS
1. Votto .322 .414 .567 .981
James Proj .311 .397 .550 .947
Chone Proj .303 .381 .528 .909
Shandler Proj. .309 .390 .559 .949

2. Phillips .276 .329 .447 .776
James Proj .269 .322 .434 .756
Chone Proj .272 .324 .443 .767
Shandler Proj. .283 .329 .464 .793

3. Balentien .264 .352 .427 .779
James Proj .244 .316 .431 .747
Chone Proj .265 .342 .487 .829
Shandler Proj. .233 .308 .408 .716

4. Bruce .223 .303 .470 .773
James Proj .274 .340 .537 .877
Chone Proj .283 .349 .537 .886
FanG All Fans .271 .343 .497 .840
Shandler Proj. .269 .331 .507 .839

5. Rolen .270 .364 .401 .766
James Proj .278 .357 .442 .799
Chone Proj .275 .350 .430 .780
Shandler Proj. .279 .346 .434 .781

6. Stubbs .267 .323 .439 .762
James Proj .267 .336 .390 .726
Chone Proj .251 .328 .380 .708
Shandler Proj. .252 .315 .359 .674

7. Dickerson .275 .370 .373 .743
James Proj .276 .372 .429 .801
Chone Proj .252 .348 .409 .757
Shandler Proj. .255 .343 .375 .719

8. Hernandez .258 .336 .362 .699
James Proj .260 .328 .405 .733
Chone Proj .257 .329 .405 .734
Shandler Proj. .261 323 .389 .712

9. Hanigan .263 .361 .331 .692
James Proj .277 .361 .366 .727
Chone Proj .266 .347 .372 .719
Shandler Proj. .269 .350 .334 .684

10. Sutton .212 .297 .348 .646
Chone Proj .230 .314 .404 .741
Shandler Proj. .236 .308 .381 .689

11. Rosales .213 .303 .317 .620
James Proj .260 .331 .434 .765
Chone Proj .255 .324 .417 .741
Shandler Proj. .237 .301 .368 .669

12. Janish .211 .296 .305 .601
James Proj .223 .301 .319 .620
Chone Proj .234 .309 .347 .656
Shandler Proj. .226 .287 .321 .609

13. Tevaras .240 .275 .285 .559
James Proj .271 .322 .321 .643
Chone Proj .263 .314 .333 .647
Shandler Proj. .247 .283 .290 .573

14. Nix .239 .291 .476 .767
James Proj .257 .309 .467 .776
Chone Proj .251 .306 .456 .762
Shandler Proj. .250 .298 .466 .764

[Spring~Fields]

Below I have added the projections from Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster. We should add in Baseball Prospectus when the 2010 version is published. It is interesting to see which projections differ materially from the others, and where there is broad consensus.

2009 BA OBP SLG OPS
1. Votto .322 .414 .567 .981
James Proj .311 .397 .550 .947
Chone Proj .303 .381 .528 .909
Shandler Proj. .309 .390 .559 .949

2. Phillips .276 .329 .447 .776
James Proj .269 .322 .434 .756
Chone Proj .272 .324 .443 .767
Shandler Proj. .283 .329 .464 .793

3. Balentien .264 .352 .427 .779
James Proj .244 .316 .431 .747
Chone Proj .265 .342 .487 .829
Shandler Proj. .233 .308 .408 .716

4. Bruce .223 .303 .470 .773
James Proj .274 .340 .537 .877
Chone Proj .283 .349 .537 .886
FanG All Fans .271 .343 .497 .840
Shandler Proj. .269 .331 .507 .839

5. Rolen .270 .364 .401 .766
James Proj .278 .357 .442 .799
Chone Proj .275 .350 .430 .780
Shandler Proj. .279 .346 .434 .781

6. Stubbs .267 .323 .439 .762
James Proj .267 .336 .390 .726
Chone Proj .251 .328 .380 .708
Shandler Proj. .252 .315 .359 .674

7. Dickerson .275 .370 .373 .743
James Proj .276 .372 .429 .801
Chone Proj .252 .348 .409 .757
Shandler Proj. .255 .343 .375 .719

8. Hernandez .258 .336 .362 .699
James Proj .260 .328 .405 .733
Chone Proj .257 .329 .405 .734
Shandler Proj. .261 323 .389 .712

9. Hanigan .263 .361 .331 .692
James Proj .277 .361 .366 .727
Chone Proj .266 .347 .372 .719
Shandler Proj. .269 .350 .334 .684

10. Sutton .212 .297 .348 .646
Chone Proj .230 .314 .404 .741
Shandler Proj. .236 .308 .381 .689

11. Rosales .213 .303 .317 .620
James Proj .260 .331 .434 .765
Chone Proj .255 .324 .417 .741
Shandler Proj. .237 .301 .368 .669

12. Janish .211 .296 .305 .601
James Proj .223 .301 .319 .620
Chone Proj .234 .309 .347 .656
Shandler Proj. .226 .287 .321 .609

13. Tevaras .240 .275 .285 .559
James Proj .271 .322 .321 .643
Chone Proj .263 .314 .333 .647
Shandler Proj. .247 .283 .290 .573

14. Nix .239 .291 .476 .767
James Proj .257 .309 .467 .776
Chone Proj .251 .306 .456 .762
Shandler Proj. .250 .298 .466 .764

I am glad you did that, it will give us chance to cross check as the season progresses, and then to go back and look to see where the projections were successful or failed to live up to the projections.

I think that is a very good idea in that many projections can be wrong because of various factors that will play out in the real season. Most will use basically the same input criteria though, and the circumstances that come from the day to day of playing the game can end up making each of the projections overly optimistic. That is why I like to take what the players have actually produced in their OBP, SLG, and OPS in the past three years if possible to get projections, because most players, established players, will fall within those year to year. I prefer to use a conservative approach with the numbers.