Projections For Reds Players That I Saw On Fangraphs

[TheNext44]

Using Baseball Musings to compare lineups is fun, but it really can't be used to predict how many runs a team will score in a season.

The problem with it, is that it assumes that the lineup put in will be the lineup for all 9 innings of all 162 games. It does not account for pinch hitting during the game (I when you consider that a pitcher usually only bats twice a game on average, that makes a big difference), or more importantly, platoons, injuries or the manager switching it up. Most teams dozens of different batting orders throughout a season. The Reds used over 75 different lineups last season.

Because of this, it is impossible to use the Baseball Musing lineup projection, or any lineup projection system to predict how many runs a team will score. A much better way, and the most common way is to use Chone or James, or whatever individual projections you want for each player, and use the Runs Created, or Base Runs, or Estimated Runs formula to figure out how many runs that player will create in the projected number of PA's it has for him. Then add them all up.

[Spring~Fields]

Using Baseball Musings to compare lineups is fun, but it really can't be used to predict how many runs a team will score in a season.
The problem with it, is that it assumes that the lineup put in will be the lineup for all 9 innings of all 162 games. It does not account for pinch hitting during the game (I when you consider that a pitcher usually only bats twice a game on average, that makes a big difference), or more importantly, platoons, injuries or the manager switching it up. Most teams dozens of different batting orders throughout a season. The Reds used over 75 different lineups last season.

Because of this, it is impossible to use the Baseball Musing lineup projection, or any lineup projection system to predict how many runs a team will score. A much better way, and the most common way is to use Chone or James, or whatever individual projections you want for each player, and use the Runs Created, or Base Runs, or Estimated Runs formula to figure out how many runs that player will create in the projected number of PA's it has for him. Then add them all up.

Really? It can't be done? and I can't do the math either and make the cross reference checks to see if it is close enough? even with projections of all types having potential flaws?

Baseball Musings was for expedient input taking the highest of their OPS number projections, giving those numbers more than the benefit of the doubt, placing them in ideal circumstances that will not happen, and still the numbers for projected runs scored came up short for the Reds vs. their competition. Then those numbers whether they come from Chone, James, Fangraph, or Baseball Musings are cross checked for a close approximation with the previous three years of actual runs scored to see if they are in the area or range for what stats, number production and performance that the money spent commonly buys.

Then I do my own math, I don't take their word for it. All were within range or the area of past performances. Again one has to look at that whole body of work to see what the person has done, then draw what they can from it.

I draw that the Reds are not much improved on their ability to score runs on the season, vs the primary competition. Unless there is a flaw in Baseball musings program they would give the Chone and James the higher benefit of the doubt, along with the actual stats of 2009 as a cross check and reference.

Two questions for yourself or anyone, respectfully.
How many runs do you see the Reds scoring in 2010 with the current roster?

Very important question: What part in this below do you or anyone find to be in serious errror? Please show me and support the serious errors so I can make the appropriate corrections, if you cannot, well then, hm? If there is no response or direct support of material errors, then I will assume from that.

Last three seasons Runs Scored by Cincinnati Reds
Season	Actual Runs Scored	2010Season Run Projection	Runs scored projection
2009		673		Using James				698.544	
2008		704		Using Chone				694.494
2007		783		2009 actual player stats	        663.630
		    James	Manager choice appearance 1		647.676		
		    Chone	Manager choice appearance 2		650.268
	   2009 act’l player    Manager choice appearance 3		624.510

We can see from using either James player projections for 2010, Chone player projections for 2010, or by using the actual player stats for 2009 that Reds do not project to significantly improve on runs scored for the season of 2010 compared to the actual runs scored from the previous three seasons.

The projected runs scored for 2010
For James compared to 2009 runs scored is 698.544 - 673.000 = + 25.544 Runs scored projection in 2010
For Chone compared to 2009 runs scored is 694.494 - 673.000 = + 21.494 Runs scored projection in 2010
For Actual 2009 player stats runs scored is 663.630 - 673.000 = - 9.37 Runs scored projection in 2010

Central Division Competition Last three seasons Runs scored
	Chicago	St. Louis  Milwaukee	Houston		Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	
2009	707	 730	    785		643		636		673
2008	855	 779	    750		712		735		704	
2007	752	 725	    801		723		724		783

It shows a 21 - 25 runs scored projection using the most optimistic of James and Chones projections, is that way out of line? Is that not more than fully giving the James and Chone projections more than the benefit of the doubt? The actual player stats show a ten run differentiation, is that way out of line? Are the Reds still behind the competitions recent past for runs scored in the season? Have the Reds made material and significant improvements in player personnel and their performance or production numbers to date?

[Scrap Irony]

You still don't get it. (Or choose not to.) Platoons mean better numbers because they're hitting against the hand they dominate. Like Gomes for much of last year, for example.

You didn't take that into account.

Your numbers are wrong.

When using Baseball Musings, you're using a screwdriver instead of a hammer to drive a nail. Sure, it's a tool. But it's the wrong one.

[TheNext44]

I understand why it is tempting to use the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool for predictions but this is why you can't use Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis to project how many runs a team will score for the season.

Using this lineup, which is using the players with most PA's at each position:

Taveras
Janish
Votto
Phillips
Nix
Rosales
Bruce
Hanigan
Pitcher

and use their actual 2009 numbers, it predicts that the Reds will score 3.70 runs a game or 599 runs for the season. That is off by 73 runs.

Now lets use what I think would be a common sense lineup. Not the best, but one that makes the most sense to the average fan.

Dickerson
Hairston
Votto
Phillips
Rolen
Gomes
Bruce
Hanigan
Pitcher

and using their actual 2009 numbers, it predicts that the Reds will score 4.56 runs a game or 738 runs for the season. So it was off by 65 runs.

So using actual numbers, Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool is just not very good at predicting how many runs a team will score, because of the reasons I stated in the previous post.

[Spring~Fields]

You still don't get it. (Or choose not to.) Platoons mean better numbers because they're hitting against the hand they dominate. Like Gomes for much of last year, for example.

You didn't take that into account.

Your numbers are wrong.

When using Baseball Musings, you're using a screwdriver instead of a hammer to drive a nail. Sure, it's a tool. But it's the wrong one.

Scrap Irony, TheNext44
That is so funny that, I am really laughing at both of you.

There is a reason both of you selectively opted to avoid answering this, and it is as old as the Internet chat rooms.

Two questions for yourself or anyone, respectfully.
How many runs do you see the Reds scoring in 2010 with the current roster?

Very important question: What part in this below do you or anyone find to be in serious errror? Please show me and support the serious errors so I can make the appropriate corrections, if you cannot, well then, hm? If there is no response or direct support of material errors, then I will assume from that.

You keep saying it can't be done that way even if it comes up with numbers that are close to what the Reds have produced for several years now. Don't tell me I can't do something just because you can't, or it doesn't fit in the neat little box that you want to work out of.

Boys all I can tell you is we will see what the total is at the end of the season, and don't come back with excuses please.

What you both should have said is that projections are inherently wrong because of the volatility of the variables and data that goes into them being changed frequently by the actual and the real numbers as the season plays out. They can really swing upward or downward. Each should question the value or worth of sports projections to begin with because of the drivers that go into the data that is constantly changing and with all probability make anyone’s projections wrong at this time, even Chone and James.

I used Chone and James numbers. So if there is error, it will be from their data.



But I can tell you this, if the stats of the players don't have a substantive increase upward, the runs scored will not make a major difference in the Reds standings at the end of the year and might not even make a material dent in the runs scored for the year.

It is not my numbers or methodology that would be in question, and you don't get that, it would be James, Chone and other's who use the projection to make great boast about "huge" improvements in the Reds offense when there is nothing in the history of the players to support it to this date.

I do expect each of you to come back in the end of the baseball season and have the integrity or I will to let the other know, who was right, as if that would matter who is right about projections anyway. Because they stand a "huge" chance of being wrong.

You all want to over analyze the variables that go into it. When all you have to do is look down the aggregate for the past few years on win loss, or individual stats, or even runs scored, if there is nothing substantive to drive a change in those previous outcomes, the following year will fall within that area for the past two three years. No need to overkill with various statistical nit picking to get to the finer grain of truth, all of the time.

[Spring~Fields]

I understand why it is tempting to use the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool for predictions but this is why you can't use Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis to project how many runs a team will score for the season.

Do you think that maybe that program is developed with a capability to calculate? and do you think that the best numbers of OPS projections by James and Chone are facts representing future events? NO. they are not.

You seem to focus on that baseball musings, you forget the prior years are facts, you forget the Reds have not substantively improved the team. You forget I too did math and stats on it.

Prove the bottom summary to be in errror, no matter how I came to it. You can't, I knew that when I asked the questions.

If you want to question someone, ask the one that boasts a 76 run improvement for this team, not one that is being conservative and only predicting 25 run improvement. I like my chances, or I would not have posted that to begin with.

Two questions for yourself or anyone, respectfully.
How many runs do you see the Reds scoring in 2010 with the current roster?

Very important question: What part in this below do you or anyone find to be in serious errror? Please show me and support the serious errors so I can make the appropriate corrections, if you cannot, well then, hm? If there is no response or direct support of material errors, then I will assume from that.

If the questions are ignored I won't bother to respond to it again.

[Spring~Fields]

I understand why it is tempting to use the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool for predictions but this is why you can't use Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis to project how many runs a team will score for the season.

Using this lineup, which is using the players with most PA's at each position:

Taveras
Janish
Votto
Phillips
Nix
Rosales
Bruce
Hanigan
Pitcher

and use their actual 2009 numbers, it predicts that the Reds will score 3.70 runs a game or 599 runs for the season. That is off by 73 runs.

Now lets use what I think would be a common sense lineup. Not the best, but one that makes the most sense to the average fan.

Dickerson
Hairston
Votto
Phillips
Rolen
Gomes
Bruce
Hanigan
Pitcher

and using their actual 2009 numbers, it predicts that the Reds will score 4.56 runs a game or 738 runs for the season. So it was off by 65 runs.

So using actual numbers, Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool is just not very good at predicting how many runs a team will score, because of the reasons I stated in the previous post.

2009 673
2008 704
2007 783
2006 749
Total 2909 /4 = 727.25

Now that is defined as a projection. Can you show where the Reds who have been trending downward in runs scored, yes. Have they added the talent to increase the numbers that drive the actual end cumulative effect of 2009 or to return to an even higher runs scored in 2008? NO.

727.5 -673 = 54 run increase projection, but there is not player improvements to support it. Nothing, Burke? Anderson? Nix ? Nothing. That projection is reckless and foolish in the light that there have not been any performance improvements that will substantively improve this teams offense over the past four years, and certainly not with basically the same roster as last year that could not score more than the weak team before it. Either way, the Reds are still a 4th or 5th place team and below .500

What is your projected runs scored for the Reds in 2010 ? Dare to take a guess with estimates in projecting a year in advanced of bad players who are very inconsistent, such as the Reds? Chone and James did. What's the chances that they are or will be wrong with a sports projection? Very good. Frankly you missed the whole exercise, by worrying about the process instead of looking at the end product and summary.

What people are missing is that neither James nor Chone are not optimisticly projecting regarding the Reds, but the opposite.

Any question that the primary competition will outscore the Reds in 2010?

[Spring~Fields]

Projections for Reds players that I saw on fangraphs.

The 2010 season projections are posted beneath the actual's for the past two seasons of the individual players for your comparisons. I thought that it might make it more convenient for some. I received the idea from what OBM posted on the outfielders and Nates projection post.

2009		 BA   OBP  SLG  OPS	TPA 	2008	      BA   OBP  SLG  OPS TPA 
1. Votto 	.322 .414 .567 .981  	544	1. Votto     .297 .368 .506 .874 589
James Proj	.311 .397 .550 .947
Chone Proj	.303 .381 .528 .909

2. Phillips 	.276 .329 .447 .776	644	2. Phillips  .261 .312 .442 .754 644
James Proj	.269 .322 .434 .756
Chone Proj	.272 .324 .443 .767

3. Balentien 	.264 .352 .427 .779	125	3. Balentien .202 .250 .342 .592 260
James Proj	.244 .316 .431 .747
Chone Proj	.265 .342 .487 .829

4. Bruce 	.223 .303 .470 .773	387	4. Bruce     .254 .314 .453 .767 452
James Proj	.274 .340 .537 .877
Chone Proj	.283 .349 .537 .886
FanG All Fans   .271 .343 .497 .840

5. Rolen 	.270 .364 .401 .766	162	5. Rolen     .262 .349 .431 .780 467
James Proj	.278 .357 .442 .799
Chone Proj	.275 .350 .430 .780

6. Stubbs	.267 .323 .439 .762	196	6. Stubbs ML .277 .371 .417 .788 548
James Proj	.267 .336 .390 .726
Chone Proj	.251 .328 .380 .708

7. Dickerson 	.275 .370 .373 .743	299	7. Dickerson .304 .413 .608 1.021 122
James Proj	.276 .372 .429 .801
Chone Proj	.252 .348 .409 .757
 
8. Hernandez	.258 .336 .362 .699	331	8. Hernandez .257 .308 .406 .714 507
James Proj	.260 .328 .405 .733
Chone Proj	.257 .329 .405 .734

9. Hanigan	.263 .361 .331 .692	293	9. Hanigan   .271 .367 .365 .732   98
James Proj	.277 .361 .366 .727
Chone Proj	.266 .347 .372 .719

10. Sutton 	.212 .297 .348 .646  	  76	10. Sutton AA .317 .408 .523 .931 606 
Chone Proj 	.230 .314 .404 .741
	
11. Rosales	.213 .303 .317 .620  	266	11. Rosales   .207 .233 .241 .475  30
James Proj  	.260 .331 .434 .765
Chone Proj	.255 .324 .417 .741

12. Janish	.211 .296 .305 .601	292	12. Janish   .188  .270 .250 .520  89
James Proj	.223 .301 .319 .620
Chone Proj	.234 .309 .347 .656

13. Tevaras 	.240 .275 .285 .559	437	13. Tevaras  .251  .308 .296 .604 538
James Proj	.271 .322 .321 .643
Chone Proj	.263 .314 .333 .647

14. Nix  	.239 .291 .476 .767	337	14. Nix      .083  .154 .083 .237 13
James Proj	.257 .309 .467 .776
Chone Proj	.251 .306 .456 .762

In your opinion are the projections right in the neighborhood or are they too low or too high for the individual players for the coming season?

Or actually, any other obeservations that one might draw from these projections/actuals comparisons?

I would like to bring the thread back to the original questions, and the original projections, the other is too boring and erroneous.

[Spring~Fields]

A much better way, and the most common way is to use Chone or James, or whatever individual projections you want for each player, and use the Runs Created, or Base Runs, or Estimated Runs formula to figure out how many runs that player will create in the projected number of PA's it has for him. Then add them all up.

See I think that would be very interesting to see the results. What I would be wanting to see is if it comes up close, reasonably, no exact science is possible, I don't think. But to see if it comes up reasonably close to what they have been creating in runs scored per game av'g and then the season total of runs scored. Not to debate but, to just see how close it comes, or if it shows significant direction changes.

I am not sure where Scrap is coming from. I think that he and I are talking about two slightly different things. I think that he is talking more about the run differential for the Reds changing to the positive for 76 runs improvement and that would be "huge", I think.

Where I am only saying the Reds have basically the same production line of players that produce the ..x..y..z... at or about the same OPS and score about the same average per game and thus will score about x number of runs for the season.

I think that some of Chone and James projections are high on some and low on others, like they were last year. How hard is it to be wrong on projections to some degree? Not very.

[Spring~Fields]

Year RK TEAM        R    H     	         BA  	 OBP 	 SLG 	 OPS	RS   	 W/L
2009 11 Cincinnati 673 1349		.247 	.318  	.394 	.712	673 	78/84
2008 12 Cincinnati 704 1351 		.247 	.321  	.408 	.729	704 	74/88
2007  7 Cincinnati 783 1496 		.267 	.335  	.436 	.772	783 	72/90
2006  9 Cincinnati 749 1419 		.257 	.336  	.432 	.768	749 	80/82
2005  1 Cincinnati 820 1453 		.261 	.339  	.446 	.785	820 	73/89

Year 	RK 	TEAM		 R  	 BA 	 OBP 	 SLG 	 OPS	RS   	 W/L
2009  	3 	Milwaukee 	785 	.263 	.341 	.426 	.767	785	80/82
2009  	7	St. Louis 	730	.263 	.332 	.415 	.747	730	91/71
2009   	10 	Chicago 	707	.255 	.332 	.407 	.738	707	83/78
2009	11 	Cincinnati 	673	.247 	.318  	.394 	.712	673 	78/84
2009	14 	Houston 	643	.260 	.319 	.400 	.719	643	74/88
2009	16 	Pittsburgh 	636	.252 	.318 	.387 	.705	636	62/99

Year 	RK 	TEAM		 R  	 BA 	 OBP 	 SLG 	 OPS	RS   	 W/L
2008	1	Chicago 	855	.278 	.354 	.443 	.797	855	97/64	
2008	4 	St. Louis 	779	.281 	.350 	.433 	.783	779	86/76
2008	7 	Milwaukee 	750	.253 	.325 	.431 	.757	750	90/72
2008	9 	Pittsburgh 	735	.258 	.320 	.403 	.723	735	67/95
2008	11 	Houston 	712	.263 	.323 	.415 	.737	712	86/75
2008	12 	Cincinnati 	704	.247 	.321 	.408 	.729	704	74/88

Year 	RK 	TEAM		 R  	 BA 	 OBP 	 SLG 	 OPS	RS   	 W/L
2007	5 	Milwaukee 	801	.262 	.329 	.456 	.785	801	83/79
2007	7 	Cincinnati 	783	.267 	.335  	.436 	.772	783 	72/90	
2007	8 	Chicago  	752	.271 	.333 	.422 	.754	752	85/77
2007	11 	St. Louis 	725	.274 	.337 	.405 	.743	725	78/84
2007	12 	Pittsburgh 	724	.263 	.325 	.411 	.736	724	68/94
2007	13 	Houston 	723	.260 	.330 	.412 	.742	723	73/89

Year RK TEAM          		 R   	 BA  	 OBP 	 SLG 	 OPS	RS   	 W/L
2009 11 Cincinnati 		673 	.247 	.318  	.394 	.712	673 	78/84
2008 12 Cincinnati 		704 	.247 	.321  	.408 	.729	704 	74/88
2 Yr total 			1377	.494	.639	.802	1.441	1377	152/172
Divide by 2  - 2010 Projection	689	.247	.320	.401	.721	689	76/86

Runs scored projection + or - over 2009 + 16
Runs scored projection + or - over 2008 - 15

[Spring~Fields]

Probably a much higher minor league ISO than he put up in the majors and a .250 BABIP that is likely to regress towards .300.

Rick, Why is it that when I run the team totals for the Reds above in those charts, that I am not coming up with something of a more or better projection, a more rosier picture in the team projections. Have I left something out ? Or made a major error?

Plus when I look at what various team's OPS accomplished to lead to their runs scored on the various seasons above, comparing the Reds team OPS projection from the chart, and then that does not look to encouraging either, does it all just come back to talent again or the lack of it?
Even if we don't use a projection and just matched up an OPS with the actual runs scored attached to that OPS, we don't get encouraging news that way either. ???

In addition it makes it appear that the primary competition in the Central will out score the Reds again, that is not encouraging either. Is there some way to legitimately make the Reds look better than that above on paper at least?

[Highlifeman21]

So we're still a less than 700 R offense in 2010?

[Spring~Fields]

So we're still a less than 700 R offense in 2010?

That is what I am trying to ask RedMansRick, because I really don't want to accept that. I mean C'mon, I'm a fan too.

[RedsManRick]

Rick...

My comment was just about Rosales...

[Spring~Fields]

My comment was just about Rosales...

I know.