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Thread: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials TBD)

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    All good points. I was amazed at how one signing could make so many fans excited about the Reds. One thing is clear, no matter how good Chapman is, he alone will not turn the Reds into contenders. And it is very doubtful he will have any real effect on 2010.

    But one of the reasons why this is so exciting, and worth the promotion, is that this kind of signing is a clear departure from what us fans expected the Reds to do. We are expecting the Reds to draft the most signable player, not the best. We are expecting the Reds to sign free agents with no ceiling, but who are merely stopgaps. And most important, we are used to the Reds signing players to contracts where there is almost no way for the player to provide excess value.

    Sure there is risk in this signing, and it is about the future more than the present, but that is the kind of signing that this organization needs to do more often, and have done so rarely in the past. If the Reds keep making moves like this one, they will be contenders in the near future.
    Sure, had me all excited.

    I have seen that excitement a lot of times, minds don't process the in between and latent little things that have to be covered, and those bridges that have to be crossed successfully before getting the hope to fruition. Until after the excitement settles down.

    Even this message board had it’s origins in the signing of one Ken Griffey Jr, and all the excitement that it generated, while the Mariner fans invaded Cincy.com to remind Reds fans, not so fast, and stayed a bit past their welcome pointing out this and that to an excited Reds fan crowd, who weren’t too pleased to read it.

    Then I had to make that note up above to remind myself to not have unrealistic immediate expectations, and after reading the minor league section of Redszone regarding prospects for so long from the fine input and feedback in that section. I thought this is, it’s ok to be excited, and nothing really to be negative about, it is just like signing any other promising prospects for the future, so maintain a balance on the wait and see line. While not deluding myself into imagining that a prospect cures today’s issues on the major league team. This is another prospect like other prospects that hold so much future hope, that general managers have so often tried to bring to the organization.

    Every time they sign any player on any level their is a degree risk. So that is nothing new.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 01-14-2010 at 04:14 PM.

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  3. #692
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I feel like this is the first time I've ever seen a thread on RedsZone where EVERYONE agrees that this is a good move. Some may disagree about when Chapman will arrive, or about whether he'll adapt well--but it seems like there is pretty much a consensus that this is a great, great move by Walt. Not without risk, to be sure, but a great, great move.

    I just wanted to say that. Good times. Carry on.
    I do remember people saying last year when Gomes was signed that this was the first move that was universally liked by RedZone. RZ was pretty spot on last year with Gomes, so let's hope we are right again this year!

    It is very difficult to compare those deals though, as they are clearly very very very different.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I do remember people saying last year when Gomes was signed that this was the first move that was universally liked by RedZone. RZ was pretty spot on last year with Gomes, so let's hope we are right again this year!

    It is very difficult to compare those deals though, as they are clearly very very very different.
    I'd say it wasn't universally loved, nor panned, he has warts and many called them out when he was signed.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    I'm excited about the move, but I'm definitely not in love with it. $30+MM for someone who probably won't be able to help the Reds much, if at all, for the first two years or so? I like it more than signing a veteran pitcher with average numbers to a long-term contract, but I can't help but think that the money could have been put to better use.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I'm excited about the move, but I'm definitely not in love with it. $30+MM for someone who probably won't be able to help the Reds much, if at all, for the first two years or so? I like it more than signing a veteran pitcher with average numbers to a long-term contract, but I can't help but think that the money could have been put to better use.
    I understand that kind of thinking, but what else could we have gotten for 30 million over 6 years? Franklin Gutierrez? It's without question a huge risk but for a team that hasn't been to the playoffs since 1995 I think we might have to take a few of these. If Chapman can develop into what many think he will be the Reds could have one of the best rotations in the game in a couple years.
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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I'm excited about the move, but I'm definitely not in love with it. $30+MM for someone who probably won't be able to help the Reds much, if at all, for the first two years or so? I like it more than signing a veteran pitcher with average numbers to a long-term contract, but I can't help but think that the money could have been put to better use.
    Even though you clearly have some doubts, this is still a very positive response overall.

    I'm really hoping that this is a sign of things to come. Walt has been saying over and over again that he wants to build around a young nucleus of talent, but since most of that talent was here when he came, I was having a hard time believing him. Then, with the Rolen and Taveras signings, I really wasn't sure what he was doing. Adding Chapman, though, makes me think this team might be headed in a decisively new direction--and perhaps that Walt wasn't all just talk.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I'm excited about the move, but I'm definitely not in love with it. $30+MM for someone who probably won't be able to help the Reds much, if at all, for the first two years or so? I like it more than signing a veteran pitcher with average numbers to a long-term contract, but I can't help but think that the money could have been put to better use.
    Right now though it is less than $3M a year. The fact that it doesn't help us for 2 years doesn't mean much because the amount of money committed to those two years that you don't expect much production is very tiny.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Right now though it is less than $3M a year. The fact that it doesn't help us for 2 years doesn't mean much because the amount of money committed to those two years that you don't expect much production is very tiny.
    It's a guaranteed contract. The Reds are paying $30MM for him, and it doesn't matter much over how long the period of time it is. I'm looking at it from a value standpoint. How well would he have to pitch over five years in the major leagues to be worth that kind of money?

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    It's a guaranteed contract. The Reds are paying $30MM for him, and it doesn't matter much over how long the period of time it is. I'm looking at it from a value standpoint. How well would he have to pitch over five years in the major leagues to be worth that kind of money?
    I've seen worse. 5 years is a long time. He could easily outpitch that contract as well, if the majority of scouts are correct.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    It's a guaranteed contract. The Reds are paying $30MM for him, and it doesn't matter much over how long the period of time it is. I'm looking at it from a value standpoint. How well would he have to pitch over five years in the major leagues to be worth that kind of money?
    He'd have to average around 1.4 WAR a year, which is about what Homer Bailey provided in 20 starts with right around league average numbers for the Reds last year.

    So if he spends all of 2010 in the minors and is a league average starting pitcher (around 4.50 ERA or FIP) each of remaining 4 full seasons, he would provide around $35M of production.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    I didn't realize Homer Bailey's 2009 numbers were worth so much. If your numbers are right, I might just love the signing of Chapman.

    On another point, I don't like mentioning that Chapman's contract is stretched out over 10 years. It's not nearly as back-loaded as that would suggest. Although it's a true statement, about 4/5 of it will be paid over the first six years.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I didn't realize Homer Bailey's 2009 numbers were worth so much. If your numbers are right, I might just love the signing of Chapman.

    On another point, I don't like mentioning that Chapman's contract is stretched out over 10 years. It's not nearly as back-loaded as that would suggest. Although it's a true statement, about 4/5 of it will be paid over the first six years.
    I just got them from fangraphs. I don't really understand how they calculated them, so I can't comment on their accuracy.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...362&position=P


    Code:
                    RAR      WAR     $$$
    2009	Reds	13.4	 1.4	$6.2
    And you are right about the contract. It's really not backloaded, just mostly spread out fairly evenly over the first 5 years with some deferred for the next 5.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I feel like this is the first time I've ever seen a thread on RedsZone where EVERYONE agrees that this is a good move. Some may disagree about when Chapman will arrive, or about whether he'll adapt well--but it seems like there is pretty much a consensus that this is a great, great move by Walt. Not without risk, to be sure, but a great, great move.

    I just wanted to say that. Good times. Carry on.
    It was a huge surprise and IMHO a gamble worth taking.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Definitely a gamble worth taking, IMO. The Reds need to be bold if they're ever going to regain relevancy in MLB. I love this sort of calculated risk from the Reds perspective.
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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    From Fay's blog:

    CHAPMAN UPDATE: Aroldis Chapman will arrive in Arizona next week to begin working with Bryan Price.

    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/


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