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Thread: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials TBD)

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Am I the only one who just realized he may be arbitration-elgible rather than simply a 6yr/30 M deal? Granted, that would mean he's pitching good, but I was bummed to see that after thinking it was 30 M flat.
    Not only that, but if he qualifies for arbitration in his fourth or fifth year, the player option becomes a signing bonus on top of the money he'd receive after arbitration.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Since I'm one of the last to weigh in on this signing I'll remind everyone of how they felt when they first posted on this thread along with my initial thoughts.

    WOW!!!!!

    I can't believe the Reds would do something this smart!!!!!!

    Am I dreaming or did this really just happen!!!!!

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    I've been saying all along I trust Jocketty IF Castellini lets him operate. Thuis shows he will...this and not trading off their young talent just for immediate gains...Walt has said all along the plan is to develop this team from the inside out and to me that means just what they've been doing. When it all comes to fruition (and I believe it will) Walt will be able to deal a youngster or two to get a needed veteran without ruining their future. The Rolen deal, panned by some, and seemingly against the grain of the "Plan" was a true necessity because EE had become a real problem and meant the whole right side of the infield was weak. His signing didn't cost much future-wise, imo, and buys Francisco or Frazier time.

    Aroldis added to Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Leake, and to lesser extent Maloney, Wood and several decent pen prospects and guys like Burton already up give a Reds fan definite hope for a bright future. Toss in Arroyo, Harang and Cordero and even near term this is looking like a pretty good staff.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    I've been saying all along I trust Jocketty IF Castellini lets him operate. Thuis shows he will...this and not trading off their young talent just for immediate gains...Walt has said all along the plan is to develop this team from the inside out and to me that means just what they've been doing. When it all comes to fruition (and I believe it will) Walt will be able to deal a youngster or two to get a needed veteran without ruining their future. The Rolen deal, panned by some, and seemingly against the grain of the "Plan" was a true necessity because EE had become a real problem and meant the whole right side of the infield was weak. His signing didn't cost much future-wise, imo, and buys Francisco or Frazier time.

    Aroldis added to Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Leake, and to lesser extent Maloney, Wood and several decent pen prospects and guys like Burton already up give a Reds fan definite hope for a bright future. Toss in Arroyo, Harang and Cordero and even near term this is looking like a pretty good staff.
    Nice post. It's a mostly young team that's probably going to stay that way in the near term, at least, with the occasional vet mixed in.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I think the writer is a bit off with his numbers, as he is adding the salary that the Reds agreed to pay him in his Arb years with what he would get in Arb. I would think that if that option does hit, the Reds would have to pay what he gets in Arb, instead of what they agreed to pay him, not in addition to Anyway, that means his numbers are around $5M off a scenario. That's actually a big deal in the second, since paying $35M for $60M of production is a much better deal than $40M for $60M.

    And if the first scenario comes true, it means the Reds will be getting around $150M of production for around $70M. Both ways, it's around paying 50 cents on the dollar, which always a great deal.
    This is where it lost me.t oo If Chapman provides us $150M in value, I would be absolutely thrilled to only have had to pay him 50% of that. The only risk the Reds have is Chapman failing to provide $30M in value over the course of the contract. If he exceeds that much production, I see no way for him to be overpaid.

    I'm curious, if he's the equivalent of whatever is a slight step down from Strasburg/Prior/ARod, your "once in a generation" types, and he was coming out of college after his Junior year, how much production should we expect him to provide.

    If you made Strasburg a FA, like Chapman was, I bet he would've gotten a whole lot more than $15 -- probably a good chunk more than Chapman's $30M. I haven't seen much discussion about what expected production for players such as him looks like. Because we should really be evaluating this deal in the context we would for any other FA -- and I'm willing to be that we paid a lot less than the going market rate for the expected value.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 01-18-2010 at 02:02 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    This is where it lost me. If Chapman provides us $150M in value, I would be absolutely thrilled to only have had to pay him 50% of that.

    The only risk the Reds have is Chapman failing to provide $30M in value over the course of the contract. If he exceeds that much production, I see no way for him to be overpaid.
    All well and good. But I have to say that there is something about Chapman that cannot be quantified or bean-counted. He is a superbly athletic LH with electric stuff. Really cool delivery, really nasty stuff. A rare bird. That, folks, is going to be fun to watch. He may end up providing the same value -- per whatever quantitative formulae are being used here -- as some capable college righthander with cookie cutter mechanics and a mouthful of cliches, but for me there will be no comparison between the entertainment values of the two pitchers. To ignore that about Chapman, IMO, will mean missing a lot.
    Last edited by lollipopcurve; 01-18-2010 at 02:17 PM.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Didn't take too long for The Onion to chime in...


    http://www.theonion.com/content/news...rce=EMTF_Onion
    2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays)

    Bryce Brentz
    Brandon Workman
    Kris Bryant
    Matt Lipka
    Rick Hague

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Didn't take too long for The Onion to chime in...


    http://www.theonion.com/content/news...rce=EMTF_Onion
    that is very funny!
    .

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    International talent field proving loaded
    Small market teams hope signing talent pays off
    By Tom Singer / MLB.com

    01/25/10 12:00 AM EST

    If the decision makers in baseball's financial lowlands have it right, Game 1 of the 2015 World Series could pit Kansas City left-hander Noel Arguelles against Cincinnati left-hander Aroldis Chapman.

    Dream on? The Royals haven't been in a World Series for a quarter century, and the Reds haven't even been in the winner's circle for a decade. Besides, neither of these guys has yet pitched in the Majors.

    But that is exactly the thinking behind such clubs' aggressive forays into the game's lone remaining frontier: the open range of international talent.

    What teams like the Royals and Reds may lack in resources to compete for the elite on the mainstream free-agent market, they are making up for, this winter in particular, with their ability to adapt, to be resourceful and to invest in the international market of baseball talent.

    General manager Walt Jocketty showed his hand after announcing the Reds' Chapman deal: They had little chance of landing such a talent by other means, free agency or Draft, so they had to go all-in on the Cuban kid.

    "Financially, it works for us," said Jocketty, who swooped in to nail a gem widely conceded to be headed to the Angels, Red Sox or Blue Jays. As confirmed by agent Randy Hendricks, at the end they had to outdraw the A's and one other "sub-.500 club."

    The approach is a sensible alternative for a so-called small-market franchise like the Reds, both financially and in the context of player development. Potentially, a huge payoff for a relatively moderate payout.

    No one is calling the $30.25 million committed by the Reds to the 21-year-old Chapman "small," though it is when viewed in comparison to the $82.5 million signed over by the Red Sox to 31-year-old John Lackey. Is there a relevance? Time will test its legitimacy, but both pitchers entered the winter in the top tier of free-agent pitchers on most experts' best-of lists.

    Jocketty's Kansas City counterpart, Dayton Moore, had taken much the same stance three days earlier upon signing Arguelles, when he called him "certainly a top pick if he was in the Draft this year."

    Because Arguelles wasn't in the First-Year Player Draft, the Royals had a better than 30-to-1 shot at him, as did the Reds at Chapman. They cut the odds, but not the price of playing. If anything, they overpaid to blow other interested teams out of the picture. The deals given to Chapman and Arguelles ($7 million, over five years) dwarfed the average signing bonus presented to first-round picks in June's First-Year Player Draft.

    And that's precisely the reason support grows within the game for expanding the First-Year Player Draft to include everyone worldwide. That will be a talking point in negotiations for the next Basic Agreement with the Players Union, which is expected to resist it because of the competitive bonuses now going to amateurs outside of the Draft.

    As it stands, this marketplace is hardly an arena for bargains, and it's hardly the province of small-market prospectors. The Red Sox and the New York teams certainly bag their own shares of Latin American talent on the open market. Still, fiscally challenged clubs consider it a more level playing field that gives them a fighting chance.

    "When you look at the size of the market we are here in Cincinnati," Jocketty said, "we have to take some bold moves from time to time to try to improve this franchise. We felt this was a very significant move."

    One with very significant risks, obviously. The difference between Chapman and Lackey -- or a left-hander like Randy Wolf, the 33-year-old who received a comparable ($29.75 million) deal from Milwaukee -- is the difference between promise and proof.

    Chapman could turn out to be Felix Hernandez, the Venezuelan who, three years after being signed by the Mariners, was a teenage winner in the Majors and is now the young ace in a contender's rotation, with a new five-year, $78 million deal at age 23. Even if the Reds don't sufficiently improve around him, Chapman could at least turn out to be Bartolo Colon, whom the Indians developed and converted (through trade) into Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips.

    Or Chapman could turn out to be Sidd Finch, who reportedly threw 162 mph, but turned out to be a hoax pulled off by Sports Illustrated.

    But you find your needles in whatever haystack you can explore, whether you are the Reds, the Royals, the Pirates, the A's or any other team which has to stretch its player budget.

    As Cincinnati senior director of scouting Chris Buckley said, "Is there a risk? Sure. There are risks in a lot of things we do in this game. But a great place to start is a 6-foot-4 left-hander who throws close to 100 mph."

    Plenty of teams with more nerve -- and patience -- than capital step up to accept those risks. The frenzy surrounding the onset of international signing season is beginning to rival the commotion around the Draft, which typically takes place a month earlier, in June. Last year's green light to sign international amateurs flashed on July 2, when clubs could sign anyone past his 16th birthday.

    Minnesota recently finalized its $3.15 million deal with Dominican shortstop Miguel Angel Sano, who joined German Max Kepler-Rozycki in the Twins organization -- a couple of 16-year-olds from opposite sides of the world with hopes of growing into Major Leaguers.

    The risks posed by the Draft are different because of the gap between the 16-year-olds being signed internationally and the 18-year-olds coming out of high school into the Draft; there's a lot of room for error in those two years, and for discovery by scouts.

    Clearly, many organizations consider it worth the risk.

    The A's set a franchise record in February 2008 for the signing of an international player with their $350,000 bonus to Dominican shortstop Robin Rosario, then smashed that bar five months later with a $4.25 million pot for 6-foot-7 Puerto Rican right-hander Michael Ynoa.

    The same year, the Reds signed Dominican outfielder Juan Duran for $2 million. Boston signed Cuban infielder Jose Iglesias for $8.2 million. Two years earlier, the Giants had signed Dominican first baseman Angel Villalona for $2.1 million.

    And so on. And those are merely the conspicuous leaders of a lengthy parade, which has overhauled the demographics in organized baseball. The Twins alone signed more than 70 foreign players in a three-year period through 2008.

    "You have to get your talent somewhere," said Rob Manfred, MLB's executive vice-president of human resources. "We believe focusing on entry-level talent is the best competitive strategy, particularly for smaller-revenue clubs. We think that's a very good thing."

    It's a potential gold mine, and not only for the club which could gain long-term control of a breakout career. For instance, the $3 million due Chapman in the final year of his five-year contract will be considered quite a bargain if he develops as expected.

    But also consider the long-term prospects of players who sign so young: They could hit free agency at the end of those six years at such a still-young age as to be in position to negotiate extreme deals.

    That isn't a hypothetical scenario: The Marlins signed Miguel Cabrera at 16, he was in Florida's outfield by age 20 and he entered his free-agent season at 24, encouraging the Tigers to lock him up with a $152 million deal.

    If anything, the cloak-and-dagger pursuit of international players is a flashback to the free-for-all days prior to the 1965 advent of the Draft, when teams simply had to out-hustle and out-bid each other for top-tier talent.

    That was the age of the Bonus Baby, and this may be a throwback to that era, with some international intrigue added to the mix.

    http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...=.jsp&c_id=cin

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    From Jon Heyman:

    Reds expecting Chapman to be superstar

    I asked a Reds person why they took a $30 million gamble on Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, and the response was swift (though maybe not as swift as one of Chapman's 102-mph fastballs).

    "Besides throwing fastballs through walls?'' came the response.

    Yes?

    "Well above average slider... average curve... Seems to really understand the cultural bridge he needs to cross... Perfect pitcher's body... VERY coordinated.''

    Is that all?

    "Picks up mechanical corrections and repeats ... Relatively low number of innings pitched... VERY clean physical specimen... Seems to ask the right questions... Knows he needs to develop a changeup, so he asked about hooking up with Mario Soto... Out of the chute, he appears to 'get it.'''

    The other unspoken reason is that the Reds think this is their best chance to acquire someone who may turn out to be great. To get a proven great player, it can cost $82.5 million (John Lackey's price tag) or even $120 million (Matt Holliday's).

    In short, they think Chapman may turn out to be Randy Johnson. And if he does, he's worth a lot more than $30 million.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz0cc194M4G

    He sounds like a smart guy who is willing to learn and wants to get better. I love it.
    So he knew to ask to work with Mario Soto but he didn't know who Tony Perez, or todays biggest baseball stars, are?
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    So he knew to ask to work with Mario Soto but he didn't know who Tony Perez, or todays biggest baseball stars, are?
    So he knew about asking for Mario Soto after his agent told him to ask for Mario Soto.
    The agent hasn't gotten to Tony Perez yet.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Walt Jocketty on XM, "If he is one of our best 11 or 12 pitchers, Chapman, will go north with the team."
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  14. #733
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Quote Originally Posted by Jpup View Post
    Walt Jocketty on XM, "If he is one of our best 11 or 12 pitchers, Chapman, will go north with the team."
    Word.

    The Reds won't necessarily be better with Chapman on the staff--but they will much more fun to follow.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Here was Arroyo's take on the Aroldis Chapman signing:

    "I was totally shocked. I didn't even know the Reds were in the running at all. I assumed a bigger market team like the Red Sox or Blue Jays would get him. The Reds have talked about not being able to spend a whole lot of money. I was surprised but I'm glad. A left-handed arm that throws 94-99 mph, you can't help to think good things will come -- either now or in a couple of years."

    http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/

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    Re: Jeff Passan: Reds sign Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to six-year deal (Financials T

    Here's a nice piece on Cuban Baseball. I find Cuban Baseball to be very interesting. I'd love to go to Cuba for about a week and just watch baseball and try some of the food.

    http://mopupduty.com/index.php/my-cu...ll-experience/


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