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Thread: The Reds draft better than most

  1. #1
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    The Reds draft better than most

    Baseball America just released its "Draft Report Card" based on the drafts from 2005-2008 and the Reds overall score comes in tied for 7th best in baseball.

    Code:
    Team 	2008 	2007 	2006 	2005 	GPA
    Giants 	A 	A 	A 	C 	3.50
    RedSox 	A 	C+ 	B+ 	A 	3.50
    Rays 	B 	A 	A 	C+ 	3.38
    Dbacks 	C 	B 	A 	A 	3.25
    Dodgers B+ 	B 	A 	C+ 	3.25
    Tigers 	B 	A 	C+ 	B+ 	3.25
    Marlins C 	A 	B 	B+ 	3.13
    Rangers B+ 	B+ 	B+ 	C 	3.13
    Reds 	B+ 	B 	C+ 	B+ 	3.13
    Braves 	C 	A 	C 	A 	3.00
    Phils   B 	B 	A 	C 	3.00
    Twins 	B 	B 	C 	A 	3.00
    Orioles A 	A 	D 	C+ 	2.88
    A's     B 	C 	B+ 	C+ 	2.75
    Brewers B 	B 	D 	A 	2.75
    Cards   B 	C 	C 	B+ 	2.63
    Padres 	B 	C 	B 	C+ 	2.63
    Yankees C 	C 	A 	C+ 	2.63
    Jays    C 	B 	B 	C 	2.50
    Pirates A 	F 	C 	A 	2.50
    Rockies B 	C 	D 	A 	2.50
    Nat's   D 	B+ 	D 	A 	2.38
    Royals 	B 	B 	D 	C+ 	2.38
    Wh. Sox A 	C 	D 	C+ 	2.38
    Mets 	B 	D 	C 	C+ 	2.13
    Ind 	B 	D 	C 	C 	2.00
    Cubs 	B+ 	C+ 	D 	F 	1.75
    Mar 	D 	C 	A 	F 	1.75
    Angels 	D 	D 	C+ 	C 	1.63
    Astros 	B 	F 	C 	F 	1.25
    MLB avg	2.87 	2.57 	2.53 	2.68 	2.66

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    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    That's a cool thing, but it carries very little weight right now. I wonder how much those grades would change if we waited another 5-10 years to review these drafts.

  4. #3
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    That's a cool thing, but it carries very little weight right now. I wonder how much those grades would change if we waited another 5-10 years to review these drafts.
    Don't know honestly. But the quick returns suggest we are doing a lot better than most.

  5. #4
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    I like that.

    Thanks Doug, that’s interesting information, good stuff, you really come up with some jewels of information.

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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    That's a cool thing, but it carries very little weight right now. I wonder how much those grades would change if we waited another 5-10 years to review these drafts.
    You know there's no way to look in the future 5-10 years. Considering that the Reds '09 draft was pretty good it's possible that they'd move up a spot or two. Add in the international signings and we could easily have one of the top 10 farm systems. I'd say that's pretty good. I'm sure in 5-10 years we'll be looking at how we rank again. But until then I'm pretty happy about how the farm system has improved. Aren't you?
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    You know there's no way to look in the future 5-10 years. Considering that the Reds '09 draft was pretty good it's possible that they'd move up a spot or two. Add in the international signings and we could easily have one of the top 10 farm systems. I'd say that's pretty good. I'm sure in 5-10 years we'll be looking at how we rank again. But until then I'm pretty happy about how the farm system has improved. Aren't you?
    Am I happy about how the farm system has improved? 'Happy' doesn't even begin to cover it . . .

    Save for just a few individuals, the Reds organization is almost completely rid of all ties to Bowden, and I couldn't be happier about it. During his tenure, the Reds had some of the worst drafts in baseball history. It's a good thing he was a good snake oil salesman because if he remained GM without that lone quality, the Reds might not be in Cincinnati anymore. Maybe that's a stretch, but the Reds organization of today has a million times more reason for hope than any from the Bowden-era Reds since GABP opened.

    Dan O'Brien had what I would call a 'decent' draft and a 'good' draft, but even though they weren't spectacular, they were still two of the best drafts the Reds had had in quite some time. Then Wayne Krivsky came along and brought some of his people on board, and that's when I noticed the farm system really start to pick up. I'm especially excited about the 2007 draft class.

    Anyway, I'm thrilled with the talent in the organization at this point, and I can't wait to see how it all develops. However, to my original post in this thread, I think it's way too premature to grade a draft merely three or four years after it happened. Over the years, I can't count how many times I've seen a prospect go from one of the top prospects in baseball to being no more than AAA fodder over the span of just a couple years. I have faith that winning baseball will come to Cincinnati thanks to the homegrown talent, but I also keep in mind that many of our top prospects will be lucky to have roster spots in just a few years.

  8. #7
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Since it would seem that the more years that pass the more accurate the assessment of the draft is; they should weight the years.

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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Here is a question for anyone that would like to take a stab. If a team has its full complement of picks - having lost or gained none for FA signings - what should a team expect out of a draft class? Would one position player, one starting pitcher and one reliever be the norm? I really have no idea. Anyone have any clue?

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    Here is a question for anyone that would like to take a stab. If a team has its full complement of picks - having lost or gained none for FA signings - what should a team expect out of a draft class? Would one position player, one starting pitcher and one reliever be the norm? I really have no idea. Anyone have any clue?
    Sometimes I'll got back and look at the drafts on baseball-reference.com. It's a real crapshoot, drafting is. I was looking now, curious about the comment that Bowden's drafts were a disaster. That might well be true and certainly is true from 2000 forward with only Votto being an impact player.

    But Bowden's drafts from 1993 to 2000 (I left off the 1992 draft since he had just started that season), brought us

    Aaron Boone
    Brett Tomko
    Jason LaRue
    Scott Williamson
    Austin Kearns
    Adam Dunn
    BJ Ryan
    Ben Broussard
    Joey Votto
    Chris Dickerson

    Now there were other players chosen who got some playing time, but these have received some regular time (albeit some with other clubs). I added Dickerson to that list, although we can't really say he's received regular playing time. This list is out of about 550 players chosen during that time period.

    It is clear that from 2000 forward, they were absolute disasters. The year 2000 saw the drafting of Dustin Moseley, Dane Sardinha, Ryan Snare and Stephen Smitherman. It was also when he gave ML deals to Sardinha and David Espinosa. The only player to make a ML appearance from 2001 has been Jeremy Sowers and we didn't sign him (a totally wasted 1st round pick), Votto and Denorfia from 2002 and Ryan Wagner, Carlos Guevara (taken by Marlins in Rule 5 in 2007) and Dickerson.

    As to your original question, I'm not sure what constitutes a quality draft, particular when you mix in international players.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    Here is a question for anyone that would like to take a stab. If a team has its full complement of picks - having lost or gained none for FA signings - what should a team expect out of a draft class? Would one position player, one starting pitcher and one reliever be the norm? I really have no idea. Anyone have any clue?
    Ideally you get one every day guy, one bench guy and a pitcher out of it (whether its a starter or reliever is up in the air).

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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Does this chart take into consideration draft position? number of picks etc? Otherwise I would say that MLB teams who perform well in terms of their W-L record and who are also able to produce through the draft despite having lower picks is far more impressive than an organization who picks in the top 10 annually. For example in the chart the royals are in the lower third despite picking near the top every year.
    Last edited by Orenda; 01-14-2010 at 01:17 AM.

  13. #12
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Quote Originally Posted by Orenda View Post
    Does this chart take into consideration draft position? number of picks etc? Otherwise I would say that MLB teams who perform well in terms of their W-L record and who are also able to produce through the draft despite having lower picks is far more impressive than an organization who picks in the top 10 annually. For example in the chart the royals are in the lower third despite picking near the top every year.
    It doesn't really do that. It just takes into account the grades each draft class has been given (today, not at the time). Theoretically it will reward teams with higher draft spots, but at the same time teams can make up for that by going well over slot for talent that falls too.

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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Would love to have seen O'Brien's 2004 draft in there, too.

  15. #14
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    Having great drafts and strong farm systems gives one hope for the future...but the only thing that matters is how the players are utilized to create a stronger Reds team at GAB.

    1.) Projectability of the prospects to excel at the major league level.

    2.) Tradeability or the ability to trade with other teams (meaning the players have skill sets other teams want) to acquire key players needed at GAB...

    3.) Having prospects that fill holes in the Reds lineup in a timely fashion (See SS here)

    4.) Depth to overcome injuries on the major league team

    are the most important attributes of a minor league system IMHO.


    Does this ranking get to any of those issues?
    If not, Is there any system that does measure the real value of a farm system to their organization?

  16. #15
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    Re: The Reds draft better than most

    The ability to find and sign talent internationally and selected through the draft provide the raw materials as do smart trades of the right players. These are the inputs. That posted above are the projected outcomes...and to me the outcomes are what matters.


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