PROject proJECT 2010: Aroldis Chapman

[nate]

This should be good. Post your prediction on how you think Aroldis Chapman will do in 2010. Use any stats you wish. I'll compile the results and (attempt to) generate an "average" result for everyone to mock, deride, praise and engage in "I told you so-ism" one year from now. I'll try to put up one player every couple of days which should get us close to spring training.

The pitchers can be seen here.

The hitters can be seen here.

Sun Deckers, please join in as well via your own thread or just send me a PM.

Note, for Chapman with regard to this little project, I think it's important to limit the projections to what you think he might do with the Reds and not with the minor league clubs. With that in mind, please try to project innings pitched and/or number of games as you prognosticate.

[OnBaseMachine]

90 IP, 81 H, 44 BB/98 K, 4.45 ERA

A very successful rookie season, IMO.

[dougdirt]

30IP in September, 32 strikeouts, 15 walks, 4.75 ERA.

[Highlifeman21]

He better stay in the minors for all of 2010, unless his K:BB is above 3:1.

[dougdirt]

He better stay in the minors for all of 2010, unless his K:BB is above 3:1.

With a major league deal you know he will get called up in September at the least, to show off that big shiny new toy the Reds bought.

[Slyder]

Doesnt throw a pitch in the majors.

120-160 IP at AAA, flashes of brilliance, flashes of youth about a 3:2 K:BB walk rate.

ERA Low 4s. Shut down to not over extend him in August.

[SirFelixCat]

Doesnt throw a pitch in the majors.

120-160 IP at AAA, flashes of brilliance, flashes of youth about a 3:2 K:BB walk rate.

ERA Low 4s. Shut down to not over extend him in August.

This sounds pretty right on. Although I think ERA in the upper 4's.

[Joseph]

19 1/3 IP
1-3 record
14 K
12 BB
2 balks
5 appearances
5.71 ERA

[klw]

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...a-little-wild/
From Fay

One of the rites of spring for hitters is the first time they get in the cage to hit against live pitching. It can be pretty scary. It will be really scary for the group that draws Aroldis Chapman.

In fact, when word got out that the Reds were signing Chapman, an unnamed Red texted an unnamed Red official and asked what was going on.

Official: We signed a kid who throws 100. Watch yourself when you hit against him.

Player: My hamstring hurts already.

One thing that makes the season hard to project is not knowing just how much his throwing over the past couple of months has deviated from a normal off season program. All of his workouts, prep for the workouts and the like have to differ from a normal offseason though this is countered by his season last year ending in July. I am glad to see he is off to Arizona to get onto a throwing program. Unless he is so dominant in Spring Training that he has a rotation spot, I hope he stays in extended spring training to limit the innings early and build towards a full time second half in the minors. This also avoids the early season cold. NO need to completely overwhelm the kid straight away, the transition from living in Andorra to the US is never easy.

[BearcatShane]

What the heck...

112 IP
3.78 ERA
96 K's
42 BB

[Degenerate39]

will not make the majors this year

[tripleaaaron]

If brought up late as a starter: 5 starts 1-3 4.95 ERA 29 IP 35K 17 Walks 18 Hits.
As a reliever: 20 IP 3.05 ERA 30Ks 12 Walks 10 Hits

I Put two different stat lines because I hope he stays in the minors and only gets the call up in a September playoff run. With having only 2 pitches currently grading out at average or above he can only be trusted out of the pen this season. He could also thrive in this role (ala Price) with his plus plus fastball and plus slider.

Optimal circumstances would have him spending a full season with Soto on his change as well as learning to harness his power. Sotos ability to communicate and aid him in his acclimation to the game and America would speed up his development more than a major league stint.

[nate]

In addition to more projections, I could use some thoughts on how many HR Chapman might allow.

[membengal]

70 IP. 4.99 ERA. 56 Ks. 37 BBs. 6 Homeruns allowed.

[savafan]

33 IP
2-1
2.42 ERA
41 Ks
23 BBs