Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 10 of 10

Thread: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Omaha, NE
    Posts
    2,156

    Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    Read tORG thread on it.
    What are your thoughts here on the "short bus" board, where Sabermetrics are in their infancy?

    I've always like the UZR, but I could never get on the bandwagon with the "this lead to X runs, Y wins, and Z dollars".

    I like my OPS and am a firm believer in LF defense is NOT a thing to worry about when discussing the Adam Dunn's of the world, etc...

    What do you guys think?

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Blowing away bad memories Redsfan320's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Oxford, OH
    Posts
    2,282

    Re: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    I dunno. While some traditional stats are obviously not perfect, there's a limit to how much you can predict a player's worth, and sometimes it becomes a bit silly.

    320
    I'd rather listen to Kelch read the phone book than suffer through Thom Brennaman's attempt to make every instance on the field the most important event since the discovery of manned space flight. -westofyou

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    3

    Re: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    I think the defensive statistics are interesting, but the number of variables is endless. By and large, I think the number of plays a player makes vs. the number of errors is a reasonable reflection of a player's defensive value; and these are certainly not new. Does something have to be new to be considered sabermetrics? I suppose not.
    I also think the difference between a good defensive player and a bad defensive player is relatively small when compared to offensive differences. I think we realize this when we look at the history of middle infielders. We used to accept the offense of Darrell Chaney and Felix Millan because they played such important defensive positions, but this isn't the case any more. If it were, Paul Janish would be playing shortstop for the Reds next year without a wimper.

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Mason, Ohio
    Posts
    65

    Re: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    Personally, I am a big fan of the idea of Sabremetrics. However, I never had much faith in UZR or Defensive metrics due to the seeming lack of consistency.

    I can tell from just watching baseball that Brandon Phillips is one of the elite 2nd basemen in the game, and I am not talking about BP's spectacular plays either... he just makes the plays that he is supposed to and occasional diving stops or jumping snags that he IS NOT supposed to make.

    However, I noticed last year that he seemed to be "off his game" a little. He missed plays he used to make and even flubbed some routine plays.

    If you look at his UZR for that last 3 years I think that it reflects his play (based on naked eye observations).

    2007 - UZR 16.6
    2008 - UZR 12.2
    2009 - UZR 6.8

    However... conversely, Paul Janish, who rates fairly high in UZR for SS (6th in the NL behind Adam Rosales who is 4th... with no minimum innings) doesn't impress me all that much.

    Yes... Janish does make good plays at SS, but nothing to write home about. He essentially does what a SS is supposed to do (why should he be "rewarded" for that).

    Janish 2009 - UZR 24.6

    Even though UZR reflects certain observations on BP... it does the opposite on Janish. Maybe it's a sample size issue with Janish at 70 defensive games and BP at 151?

    Someone with more info on UZR could probably help with the sample size issue, but my main point is that UZR seems to be too inconsistent based on naked eye observations to be worth while.

    *All UZR stats from Fangraphs*

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,576

    Re: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    I said this last summer a couple of times.

    I don't believe there are any Defensive measurements that come close to predicting or measuring a player's defensive effectiveness to a team for a season, a month, a week or a game.

    My own eyes are still 10 times better than anything that has yet to be invented regarding measuring Defense.

    I'd compare the very best Defensive statistics to batting average when measuring a player's effectiveness.

    That's why Norris Hopper and his career .310 batting average has bounced around to 4 teams in the last 12 months.

    I also think Defense is highly under-rated by fans, especially, and by General Managers.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 01-16-2010 at 04:48 AM.

  7. #6
    Member improbus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Columbus, OH
    Posts
    2,082

    Re: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    I also think Defense is highly under-rated by fans, especially, and by General Managers.
    I think that is changing quickly, but not in the way that you might think. Teams are looking to cut payroll and the GM's are selling their fans on "improving team defense." Look at the exchange of Jason Bay for Mike Cameron. That was really a salary dump and the Red Sox will NOT be better with Mike Cameron, but they are packaging that move as a defensive move. Cameron is making $15.5m. over 2 years while Bay got 4 years at $66m. The Dunn trade was a similar move.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero

  8. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Omaha, NE
    Posts
    2,156

    Re: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    Quote Originally Posted by dcameron24 View Post
    Personally, I am a big fan of the idea of Sabremetrics. However, I never had much faith in UZR or Defensive metrics due to the seeming lack of consistency.

    I can tell from just watching baseball that Brandon Phillips is one of the elite 2nd basemen in the game, and I am not talking about BP's spectacular plays either... he just makes the plays that he is supposed to and occasional diving stops or jumping snags that he IS NOT supposed to make.

    However, I noticed last year that he seemed to be "off his game" a little. He missed plays he used to make and even flubbed some routine plays.

    If you look at his UZR for that last 3 years I think that it reflects his play (based on naked eye observations).

    2007 - UZR 16.6
    2008 - UZR 12.2
    2009 - UZR 6.8

    However... conversely, Paul Janish, who rates fairly high in UZR for SS (6th in the NL behind Adam Rosales who is 4th... with no minimum innings) doesn't impress me all that much.

    Yes... Janish does make good plays at SS, but nothing to write home about. He essentially does what a SS is supposed to do (why should he be "rewarded" for that).

    Janish 2009 - UZR 24.6

    Even though UZR reflects certain observations on BP... it does the opposite on Janish. Maybe it's a sample size issue with Janish at 70 defensive games and BP at 151?

    Someone with more info on UZR could probably help with the sample size issue, but my main point is that UZR seems to be too inconsistent based on naked eye observations to be worth while.

    *All UZR stats from Fangraphs*
    Nice post! Welcome to RZ!

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

  9. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    7,576

    Re: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    Nice post! Welcome to RZ!

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    Yes. Hear! Hear!

  10. #9
    Blowing away bad memories Redsfan320's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Oxford, OH
    Posts
    2,282

    Re: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    Welcome to RZ!
    Let me be the third to welcome you!

    320
    I'd rather listen to Kelch read the phone book than suffer through Thom Brennaman's attempt to make every instance on the field the most important event since the discovery of manned space flight. -westofyou

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Mason, Ohio
    Posts
    65

    Re: Defensive Metrics - Love 'em, Hate 'em ?

    Thanks for the kind words... I've always kind of been a stalker of the ORG. Figured it was time to state some of my own opinions. Besides... if I didn't have the Reds and Bengals to criticize/complain about I don't know what I would do with my free time.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25