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Thread: New Draft Strategy - Any Sport

  1. #1
    Member improbus's Avatar
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    New Draft Strategy - Any Sport

    I'm going to preface this with a few requirements and caveats.
    1) It will only work in a league that has existed for a few seasons.
    2) It is very difficult to manage during the draft. Try some mock drafts with it first.
    3) You need to have some Excel skills
    4) It need to use Rotisserie Scoring
    5) You're somewhat relying on projections and it is not a guarantee of success
    6) Don't tell anyone else what you are doing

    I am in a Fantasy Hoops league (the single best fantasy sport due to it's variety of numbers, but that is another argument for another thread) that has been around since the 1990's. It has been the same 6 guys every year and we have finally perfected the cateories we use. So, I looked at the average stats for the team that won each category in each season and set up a spreadsheet that would add the projected numbers of each player together. Then, the spreadsheet would compare the stat number that was required to win the category. It would then tell me what percentage of the total number needed to win the stat that I currently had. So, I could see which stat I needed more and which I had covered adequately. So, for example, after three picks last year, I found that I was already at 40% of my offensive rebounds but only at 15% of my assists needed to win the category, so I knew what to target. Finally, I set up an average of my category percentages, and the higher this got, the better. So, as I my picks were approaching, I would enter the targeted players into the spreadsheet and compare their impact on both the individual categories and my overall standing.

    Now, this spreadsheet does have some problems. It told me that Danny Granger was a better fantasy player than both Kobe and Wade, but it didn't take into account that he is always hurt. Still, I'm pretty happy with the results.

    This is what is called "nerding-out."
    Last edited by improbus; 01-16-2010 at 09:02 AM.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero

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  3. #2
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: New Draft Strategy - Any Sport

    I like it. In the end, you still need fantasy sport skills, but this would help a lot of people.

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    Re: New Draft Strategy - Any Sport

    Quote Originally Posted by improbus View Post
    I'm going to preface this with a few requirements and caveats.
    1) It will only work in a league that has existed for a few seasons.
    2) It is very difficult to manage during the draft. Try some mock drafts with it first.
    3) You need to have some Excel skills
    4) It need to use Rotisserie Scoring
    5) You're somewhat relying on projections and it is not a guarantee of success
    6) Don't tell anyone else what you are doing

    I am in a Fantasy Hoops league (the single best fantasy sport due to it's variety of numbers, but that is another argument for another thread) that has been around since the 1990's. It has been the same 6 guys every year and we have finally perfected the cateories we use. So, I looked at the average stats for the team that won each category in each season and set up a spreadsheet that would add the projected numbers of each player together. Then, the spreadsheet would compare the stat number that was required to win the category. It would then tell me what percentage of the total number needed to win the stat that I currently had. So, I could see which stat I needed more and which I had covered adequately. So, for example, after three picks last year, I found that I was already at 40% of my offensive rebounds but only at 15% of my assists needed to win the category, so I knew what to target. Finally, I set up an average of my category percentages, and the higher this got, the better. So, as I my picks were approaching, I would enter the targeted players into the spreadsheet and compare their impact on both the individual categories and my overall standing.

    Now, this spreadsheet does have some problems. It told me that Danny Granger was a better fantasy player than both Kobe and Wade, but it didn't take into account that he is always hurt. Still, I'm pretty happy with the results.

    This is what is called "nerding-out."
    How can anyone play in a league that has less than 12 teams? There's no competition there, as everyone has All-Star Rosters. Competitive Leagues are all about having depth, and making it difficult to acquire that depth. Thus, 14-team Football Leagues are the best, but 12 will work. With Baseball, 14-team Leagues would be the best, too (using both American and National Leagues), but again, 12 will work. And, if you really want to make it competitive, make it for money. It's actually more fun when it's for money as there's more communication, and it's still all in fun.

  5. #4
    Member improbus's Avatar
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    Re: New Draft Strategy - Any Sport

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    How can anyone play in a league that has less than 12 teams? There's no competition there, as everyone has All-Star Rosters. Competitive Leagues are all about having depth, and making it difficult to acquire that depth. Thus, 14-team Football Leagues are the best, but 12 will work. With Baseball, 14-team Leagues would be the best, too (using both American and National Leagues), but again, 12 will work. And, if you really want to make it competitive, make it for money. It's actually more fun when it's for money as there's more communication, and it's still all in fun.
    We have added people to the league in the past but it has never quite worked out. Also, each team has 13 guys playing and 4 bench guys. So, believe me, we are really scraping the NBA barrell. Right now, I'm debating on whether to pick up Matt Barnes or Corey Brewer or as I like to call it, a no-win situation. In a way, we have manufactured that depth.
    Variatio delectat - Cicero

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    Re: New Draft Strategy - Any Sport

    Quote Originally Posted by improbus View Post
    We have added people to the league in the past but it has never quite worked out. Also, each team has 13 guys playing and 4 bench guys. So, believe me, we are really scraping the NBA barrell. Right now, I'm debating on whether to pick up Matt Barnes or Corey Brewer or as I like to call it, a no-win situation. In a way, we have manufactured that depth.
    That's tough. Looks like you did starting 13 players. With only 4 bench guys, there's no stashing people, so the whole league matters.


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