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Thread: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

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    Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    36. AROLDIS CHAPMAN (LHP), REDS

    Age: 21 | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 180
    2009 Stats: N/A
    Finished '09: N/A (defected from Cuba in July 2009)

    The Skinny: Chapman could easily be in the top five, but at this point how can we really be sure? Much of Chapman's game is still a mystery, but if reports are to believed, and he can consistently produce that type of huge velocity, he'll be moving up this list in a hurry. Right now, he makes it purely on expectations.

    56. Todd Frazier (SS) 23 Reds
    57. Yonder Alonso (1B) 22 Reds
    61. Mike Leake (RHP) 22 Reds

    http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/t...-of-2010-1-25/

    Chapman is way too low, IMO. Same with Alonso.

    They'll be holding a chat at 3:00 PM.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 01-25-2010 at 01:13 PM.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    OBM really?? I think the author's opinion of Chapman is spot on. I mean no one really knows and he is still a big what if.

    I have seen Alonso all over the place on prospect rankings so seeing him at 57 doesn't surprise me.

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Yeah, I think Alonso, Frazier, and Leake are pretty close to spot on and understand the site's reluctance to move Chapman into the top of the list based pretty much exclusively on scouting reports and little eye to eye witnessing. (Though I think Chapman's pure stuff is much better than, say, Martin Perez at #9.)

    Having four prospects inside the top 61 is pretty daggone good, IMO, and a real shout out to the top level of Reds' prospectdom. That they also have, like, 45 more options that could make the majors in some capacity pretty much confirms the twin strengths of the system.

    BTW, Zach Stewart is at # 60, one spot ahead of Mike Leake.
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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    I had both of my questions answered very early on.

    3:07 [Comment From Brandon: ]
    How close was Juan Francisco and Travis Wood to making the top 100?

    3:09 Frankie Piliere: Both were very close. That's a very strong system, it was difficult to sort through. Both guys are very good prospects and proof that the top 100 isn't a tell all as far as who is a good prospect.


    3:09 [Comment From Brandon: ]
    Did Yorman Rodriguez get any consideration for the top 100?

    3:10 Frankie Piliere: Quite a bit. Saw a lot of him this summer, so I had a lot to go on with him especially. A little raw for my taste so far. Huge upside but I wasn't quite ready to put him in there yet.

    http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/l...pects-edition/

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Fanhouse will be releasing their organizational rankings tomorrow.

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    What kind of site is fanhouse?

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Every now and then I am compelled to ask a question that exposes my ignorance. Today's the day. How do these sites (people) manage to scout all of the organizations and draft choices and produce an accurate ranking? Are these independent judgments or variations in ordering a consensus list derived from recent drafts?

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    What kind of site is fanhouse?
    Not exactly answering your question, but the maker of the list is a former pro scout who is now a writer. Frankie also used to write at Saberscouting.com if you were ever familiar with that site.

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Thanks.

    Always like to get some perspective.

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    Every now and then I am compelled to ask a question that exposes my ignorance. Today's the day. How do these sites (people) manage to scout all of the organizations and draft choices and produce an accurate ranking? Are these independent judgments or variations in ordering a consensus list derived from recent drafts?
    The most I ever got into it was 9 years ago.

    I had memorized everything there was to know about 1700 hitters and 1900 pitchers from the Majors throughout the entire minor league system along with some top College prospects. I had excel spreadsheets on everyone, and spent about 700 hours putting it together over 6 months (I was between jobs and always wanted to do this, and put it together). You spend that much time and you can quote anything about anyone, from their OPS last year, to their expected OPS in 3 years and where they should be in 3 years, who's in front of them on the organization chart at every level including projecting what has to happen at each level ahead of them for them to progress, assuming they don't remain stagnant at a level or regress because they were moved up too soon. It's always better to be cautious on the side of too late than too soon. Destroying the confidence of a player is the number one problem next to injuries of any organization. That where I miss Krivsky the most, as he was an expert in handling promotions in my opinion. I know that others don't agree with this, but that was his greatest strength in my opinion. It added to his ability to put the REDS organization in a balance (though he didn't get to finish the pitching part of it). Walt's not bad, but he's a far cry from Krivsky (and from what I glean from Walt, I think he spends about 1/3rd the time as Krivsky spent giving his attention to the minors.)) I saw as many games as I could and watched all the games that I could on video. It was easy to add the new draft results into the research in June as I only had to learn them, having already memorized the other 3600 players, whom I only had to watch their growth.

    And, I didn't get paid for it. I imagine someone who gets paid for it, concentrates on fewer players (picks a section of the country or world) and spends more time on each player. Basically, sifting through the straw more, where I instead just learned about everyone who was already drafted, or were for sure Top-5 Round draft picks. I'm using their information and tweaking it to my own judgements.

    I stopped the heavy research after 6 months and did very little research at all after that. But, those 6 month carried me through for the next 6 years on players, where most of them projected out to very close to what they should have. There weren't a lot of surprises, except for the expected drops once steroids started to be used less often.

    I know right now about 1/250th of what I knew then. But, there are certain players I've seen in person a few times (before they were drafted) that I knew were destined for good Major League careers, and Alonso is one of those.

    It'd be nice to have knowledge like Doug and some others have, who make the time to see these players. There are a lot of bad scouts out there over the years, especially now. There's worse ones now than there ever were. A good Scout can spot a good hitter or pitcher after watching him for just a couple minutes. The rest of his time is spent working on finding his weaknesses that need to be worked on so that he progresses smoothly towards the "good" that he sees in him.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 01-26-2010 at 06:09 AM.

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    The most I ever got into it was 9 years ago.

    I had memorized everything there was to know about 1700 hitters and 1900 pitchers from the Majors throughout the entire minor league system along with some top College prospects. I had excel spreadsheets on everyone, and spent about 700 hours putting it together over 6 months (I was between jobs and always wanted to do this, and put it together). You spend that much time and you can quote anything about anyone, from their OPS last year, to their expected OPS in 3 years and where they should be in 3 years, who's in front of them on the organization chart at every level including projecting what has to happen at each level ahead of them for them to progress, assuming they don't remain stagnant at a level or regress because they were moved up too soon. It's always better to be cautious on the side of too late than too soon. Destroying the confidence of a player is the number one problem next to injuries of any organization. That where I miss Krivsky the most, as he was an expert in handling promotions in my opinion. I know that others don't agree with this, but that was his greatest strength in my opinion. It added to his ability to put the REDS organization in a balance (though he didn't get to finish the pitching part of it). Walt's not bad, but he's a far cry from Krivsky (and from what I glean from Walt, I think he spends about 1/3rd the time as Krivsky spent giving his attention to the minors.)) I saw as many games as I could and watched all the games that I could on video. It was easy to add the new draft results into the research in June as I only had to learn them, having already memorized the other 3600 players, whom I only had to watch their growth.

    And, I didn't get paid for it. I imagine someone who gets paid for it, concentrates on fewer players (picks a section of the country or world) and spends more time on each player. Basically, sifting through the straw more, where I instead just learned about everyone who was already drafted, or were for sure Top-5 Round draft picks. I'm using their information and tweaking it to my own judgements.

    I stopped the heavy research after 6 months and did very little research at all after that. But, those 6 month carried me through for the next 6 years on players, where most of them projected out to very close to what they should have. There weren't a lot of surprises, except for the expected drops once steroids started to be used less often.

    I know right now about 1/250th of what I knew then. But, there are certain players I've seen in person a few times (before they were drafted) that I knew were destined for good Major League careers, and Alonso is one of those.

    It'd be nice to have knowledge like Doug and some others have, who make the time to see these players. There are a lot of bad scouts out there over the years, especially now. There's worse ones now than there ever were. A good Scout can spot a good hitter or pitcher after watching him for just a couple minutes. The rest of his time is spent working on finding his weaknesses that need to be worked on so that he progresses smoothly towards the "good" that he sees in him.
    Thank you, Kingspoint, for taking the time to describe the process. I have a much better understanding of the process and appreciation of the work involved in doing it right.

    IIRC, one of the primary reasons for the Reds success in the 70's was the work of Chief Bender who served as farm system director. His departure from the job coincided with the Reds decline. For a small market team, it is not just helpful, it is critical to be able to evaluate minor league talent. The scouting staff is the wrong area to save money. It seems to me that beginning with Krivsky, the Reds have made great strides in rebuilding the farm system. Would you be willing to rank the Reds current scouting system?

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    Would you be willing to rank the Reds current scouting system?
    I don't have the knowledge any more, but I would agree with those here who have said that O'Brien did a fine job changing things around, and Krivsky followed his work up positively setting the stage for Walt to complete the work with the Minor League Pitching and then reap the benefits. The only real problem has been Dusty Baker's stunting of some players' growth, so that there could be real opportunity in the 2010/11 seasons. Of course there was the questionable Daryl Thompson promotion and the use of Harang's arm, but the former was on Walt and the latter on Baker. Thompson's problem was caught quickly, but it was too late. Don't know if there is any blame in the Dallas Buck injury or not. I'm going to go with no blame for now until I hear otherwise. There are hundreds, literally, on this site, who do an excellent job of this. I try not to comment on the players I don't know, which is most of them. I have my favorite posters whom I like to read. They are consistent in their analyses, they don't go with the majority some times, and they can project well into the future really well while trusting their naked eye even if it counters what some stats may say. That may be just a handful, but there are 100's here who are extremely knowledgeable about not just the REDS, but all of Major League baseball. It's scary, really, how much knowledge is here.

    It's rare when the consensus predictions for W-L on the season is more than 3-4 games off. The REDS, for whatever reason, don't seem to get any "Wild" results like the Rockies from two years ago, or some Marlins seasons, or the Rays from two years ago.

    I've always preferred Minor League Baseball over Major League Baseball.

    I'll pull over my car and watch 10-year olds play some innings, girls or boys. I love the unexpectedness. I prefer High School baseball over Minor League Baseball half the time. I've seen many future Major Leaguers at the High School level first.

    I love watching baseball.

    On my honeymoon, my goal was to drive to Fenway Park (after we flew from Gresham, Oregon to Connecticut first). The drive up Highway 1 was longer than I thought and we only made it as far as Newport, Rhode Island. That's fine, as it was one of the nicest days of my life in Newport.

    If I had to pick my favorite, though, it's High-A Baseball. You can't beat the atmosphere and the price. Most minor league parks there's some ex-ballplayers from the 1940's and 1950's who like to hang out. And, the PCL from the '40's and '50's was nearly as good as the Majors, as were the Negro Leagues. You can spot 'em. If you do it right, you might be able to get in a conversation, which means me trying to listen to any stories they might have to tell. You can also catch Major League G.M.'s at the Minor League Parks, where you can also, if done politely, ask a question, or two. But, I usually don't ask the G.M.'s anything, as they're at the ballpark to work gleaning information from the Coaches and touching bases with the Park Operator, Minor League team President, etc... But, sometimes it works out really well, when I sat next to Kevin Towers for a few innings while he and an Exec spoke about the Padres. (They sat next to me. I didn't sit next to them. I knew the Exec as a business associate.) It was interesting. I didn't say anything. Don't want to bug him. But, those old-timers, they love to tell you stories.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 01-27-2010 at 05:58 AM.

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Frankie Piliere says he would rank Chapman as the No. 2 prospect in baseball if he could redo his list. Yes, No. 2, ahead of Jason Heyward. That's how impressed he was by Chapman today.

    From Piliere's twitter:

    I think if I was re-doing the top 100 today Chapman would be #2

    http://twitter.com/FrankiePiliere

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Dangit OBM, everytime I see an update on Heyward, I think of how you posted how close we were to him. One game difference.
    Domo Arigato, Here Comes Joey Votto

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    Re: Fanhouse.com Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    Dangit OBM, everytime I see an update on Heyward, I think of how you posted how close we were to him. One game difference.
    Yep. Imagine having Heyward, Stubbs, and Bruce in the outfield. Three Gold Glove caliber defenders, and two potential superstars on the corners.


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