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Thread: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Five-Star Prospects
    1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
    Four-Star Prospects
    2. Mike Leake, RHP
    3. Todd Frazier, INF
    Three-Star Prospects
    4. Yonder Alonso, 1B
    5. Travis Wood, LHP
    6. Chris Heisey, OF
    7. Brad Boxberger, RHP
    8. Juan Francisco, 3B
    9. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
    10. Billy Hamilton, SS
    Two-Star Prospects
    11. Miguel Rojas, SS

    Four More:
    12. Matt Maloney, LHP: A pure finesse lefty, Maloney is exceptionally good at his craft, but his ceiling is a fifth starter.
    13. Zach Cozart, SS: Cozart is a plus defender at shortstop with surprising pop, but his pure hitting skills are lacking.
    14. Mariekson Gregorius, SS: This Dutch import has solid tools across the board, and he impressed scouts in the Pioneer League.
    15. Juan Duran, OF: He has crazy tools, but to call him raw doesn't really do the concept justice.

    Follow the link for the rest...

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=9988

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    I'll give a summary of the scouting reports later. Four of the Reds top 14 prospects are shortstops...

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Bit of a shakeup there. Not often recently that there have been such varied opinions of the Reds prospects.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    I think Alonso is being sold short in a lot of these rankings lists.

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    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    I'd be interesting for someone to post a chart of the REDSZONE top 20, BPs, Sickels, etc in a nice chart. It'd be fun to watch that develop over the year.

    GL

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Summary of scouting reports:

    Aroldis Chapman - best left-handed prospect in baseball. Fastball in mid-90's that has touched 100 mph. Slider is easily a plus pitch when he controls it well. Smooth delivery. Maintains velocity deep into games. Inconsistent command and control. Will be an ace with improved control + even an average changeup.

    Mike Leake - Statistically better than Strasburg. 1.71 ERA and 24 BB/162 K in 142 innings in tough hitters environment against great competition. Highly advanced, shouldn't need much time in minors. Average to slightly above average velocity. Plus changeup, average curve and slider. Great control. Projects as a #3 starter, but there's a small chance he develops into a Tim Hudson clone.

    Todd Frazier - Good hand-eye coordination, good approach, and average-to-plus power. Cut down on strikeouts in 2009 without loss of power whichs makes scout even more optimistic about his big league future. Jeff Kent-esque player if he stays at second base. Awkward mechenics but it works for him. Average speed and arm.

    Yonder Alonso - best OBP skills in organization. Makes consistent contact and solid approach should lead to many walks. Scouts debate on how much power he really has. Some scouts concerned about his ability to hit lefties.

    Travis Wood - best changeup in organization. Nearly perfect arm action on changeup with great difference in velocity from fastball, and great late break. 88-92 mph fastball with cutting action. Much better control after simplifying delivery. Curveball needs to improve. Tools to be a good fourth starter.

    Chris Heisey - solid tools and grinder mentality. Makes consistent hard contact to all fields with solid average power and solid approach. Can play all three outfield positions. Arm and speed are at least major league average. Lacks star-level tools. Expanded his strikezone too much after promotion to Louisville.

    Brad Boxberger - Deep arsenal consists of four solid pitchers. Fastball sits in low 90's. Slider is go-to pitch while his curve and change are average. Has yet to match results with his stuff.

    Juan Francisco - best raw power in system. Flails at nearly all secondary pitches. Limited range at 3B. May move to left field. Has the power to consistently hit 30+ homers in majors.

    Yorman Rodriguez - amazes scouts with tools, but also showed some holes. Highest ceiling in system among position players. True 5-tooler, above-average speed, good range in CF, strong arm, and above-average power with chance for more after he fills out. Struggles with breaking balls. Strong makeup. Projects as impact CFer.

    Billy Hamilton - very toolsy. Plus-plus speed, surprising gap power, plenty of ragne for SS or CF. Plus-plus arm. More of an athlete than baseball player right now. Hardly no feel for strikezone at this point. Very high ceiling but strong bust potential as well.

    Miguel Rojas - very strong defensively, made improvements with bat. Great range to left and right, smooth with good arm and terrific fundamentals. Makes a lot of contact. Slightly-above average baserunner. Lacks power and projection. Could be everyday shortstop because of defense. Bottom of order hitter.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    thanks OBM

    Reds system has bounced back very well from graduation of the big 4
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    And here's a Q & A with Terry Reynolds. It's free, just click the link to view it.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=9989

    Reynolds says Yonder Alonso will begin the 2010 season in Louisville.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    I saw the word "raw" used a number of times. Between the latin youngsters, Hamilton, Fransisco, Mesoraco, etc. there's a lot of high ceiling talent that has a long way to go.

    I'm not at all surprised to see Frazier above Alonso. Frazier has performed in AAA and has the edge defensively. I don't think Alonso finishes the year as a Red.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Still don't get Rojas over Cozart. Defensively they are similar with Rojas getting a little bit of a nod. Offensively they aren't close. One is a slap hitter and the other has 15 HR power at shortstop. Makes no sense to me.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Still don't get Rojas over Cozart. Defensively they are similar with Rojas getting a little bit of a nod. Offensively they aren't close. One is a slap hitter and the other has 15 HR power at shortstop. Makes no sense to me.
    Doesn't seem all that wacky to me. Rojas is several years younger, and may be a truly plus defender. His bat has been pretty good for a real young kid. Age is likely the separator here. But when you're talking about one guy ranked 11 and the other 13, it's a pick 'em.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    http://www.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?c...pic_id=7961660

    Yonder Alonso talks about being invited to the 2010 Rookie Career Development Program. In the video Alonso says he's been working out in the outfield.

  14. #13
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I saw the word "raw" used a number of times. Between the latin youngsters, Hamilton, Fransisco, Mesoraco, etc. there's a lot of high ceiling talent that has a long way to go.

    I'm not at all surprised to see Frazier above Alonso. Frazier has performed in AAA and has the edge defensively. I don't think Alonso finishes the year as a Red.
    I really think Frazier could go (as well). It's the second time I've heard Reynolds selling the line: If I were a GM, I'd really want this guy.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    The stock is clearly dropping on Alonso:

    2010
    3 stars
    "Perfect World Projection: Alonso’s an everyday first baseman, but he’s not a huge star, and he’ll possibly be in need of a platoon partner."

    2009
    5 stars
    "Perfect World Projection: He should become a .300/.400/.550 first baseman."

    I like the news about him in LF and RF, I'd prefer to see him move rather than Votto. I don't see it in the cards though.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Doesn't seem all that wacky to me. Rojas is several years younger, and may be a truly plus defender. His bat has been pretty good for a real young kid. Age is likely the separator here. But when you're talking about one guy ranked 11 and the other 13, it's a pick 'em.
    Age doesn't matter in this case. Rojas doesn't have the frame that is going to fill out and give him power at all. He might hit 5 HR in a season one day. Might. The upside just isn't there on the offensive side of things. His defense is a little better right now. His offense isn't close to being better right now and it won't be in the future either. It seems pretty wacky to me.


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