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Thread: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

  1. #16
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Age doesn't matter in this case. Rojas doesn't have the frame that is going to fill out and give him power at all. He might hit 5 HR in a season one day. Might. The upside just isn't there on the offensive side of things. His defense is a little better right now. His offense isn't close to being better right now and it won't be in the future either. It seems pretty wacky to me.
    We're talking shortstops here. If Rojas is a great defender and can get on base at a fairly high clip, while Cozart's defense is not as good as advertised and his bat doesn't develop all that well, then you have a scenario where Rojas may be the more valuable player.

    The future is often quite different than any of us suspect it will be.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    We're talking shortstops here. If Rojas is a great defender and can get on base at a fairly high clip, while Cozart's defense is not as good as advertised and his bat doesn't develop all that well, then you have a scenario where Rojas may be the more valuable player.

    The future is often quite different than any of us suspect it will be.
    According to the scouting reports in this article, Cozart has plus range. So in this case, the defense isn't the problem at all.

  4. #18
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Kevin Goldstein on Humberto Valor:

    Valor is similar to Rojas really. Smalish Venezuelan SS with good defense, and definitely more offensive upside than Rojas.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    http://www.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?c...pic_id=7961660

    Yonder Alonso talks about being invited to the 2010 Rookie Career Development Program. In the video Alonso says he's been working out in the outfield.
    Thanks, OBM. Nice find.

    3rd Base....Right Field....Left Field....1st Base....I was wondering when they'd be having him "try" these other things, like they do with all the players (Votto practiced and eventually played some Left Field in the minors, as we know).

    Nows the time to find out for sure what their potential is for playing other positions. Shouldn't wait until the Majors if you don't have to.

    Thought the "Aaron Crow" video was interesting to see. He was talked about quite a bit here at Redszone, and was a "favorite" among many to be drafted by the REDS. He says he's healthy and ready to go. But, man he's skinny.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 01-27-2010 at 07:28 AM.

  6. #20
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    When you look at 2-11, it shows you how badly we needed that Chapman signing.

    We were looking at 2012 as a rotation being made up of:

    Cueto
    Volquez
    Wood
    Bailey
    Thompson (if he comes back)
    Buck (if he comes back)
    ....and whatever we can get when we trade Phillips, Alonso, Harang, and/or Arroyo.

    You have to assume that 1 or 2 of the first 4 will be injured, and that Thompson and Buck probably won't come back.

    Chapman now gets added to Leake giving the team two chances to have starting pitchers who can start like an "average" starter in 2012, which is still probably too much to ask for that young of a player, even from those two. Wood will barely be ready as he gets his feet wetter this year and next.

    2011 still looks pretty inexperienced from a starting pitching standpoint.

  7. #21
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    I see Zach Cozart as the Starting Shortstop in 2011.

    We'll see how he does in AAA this season under Sweet, first.

    But, I also thought that Alonso would be starting at 1st Base July 1st of 2010. That timeline is in danger of not coming to fruition.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Thanks so much OBM.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    According to the scouting reports in this article, Cozart has plus range. So in this case, the defense isn't the problem at all.
    Not saying his defense would necessarily be "a problem" -- though he had a high error total last year and said himself that he had a down year defensively -- only that Rojas may be so good there that his overall value could eclipse Cozart's, if Cozart's bat, not a sure thing, doesn't continue to improve (and Rojas manages to keep getting himself on base). Not that it means anything conclusive, but it's also true that Rojas was BA's best defensive SS in the Midwest League, while Cozart was not voted the best in the SL.

    So, my take is that right now the defensive edge may go to Rojas, age is certainly in his favor, and Cozart's bat is not yet a sure thing (though signs are encouraging). For me, that means it's not difficult to envision a future in which Rojas is a more valuable SS. I definitely do not put so much stock in one person's prospect rankings that I'd consider the difference between a #11 and a #13 anything more than a pick 'em.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    The most interesting thing to me about these rankings is the appearance of Gregorius. As OBM noted, having 4 shortstops in the top 14 is an intriguing development. And then there's Valor, too. So far none of these guys has truly separated himself, as a prospect, from the others... will be fun to watch.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #25
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    The most interesting thing to me about these rankings is the appearance of Gregorius. As OBM noted, having 4 shortstops in the top 14 is an intriguing development. And then there's Valor, too. So far none of these guys has truly separated himself, as a prospect, from the others... will be fun to watch.
    4 of the top 14 but none in the top 9.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    4 of the top 14 but none in the top 9.
    yes -- this is why I say none has separated himself -- yet
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Boy Hamilton just looks better every day. It's nice to know with certainty that he doesn't lack the arm or the range to eventually be a major league SS (potentially an elite major league SS), everything/anything else is something that can be worked on. In 2 years he could be the #1 prospect in the organization, him or Yorman. Heck these 2 have the potential to be the #1 prospect in all of baseball at some point.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  14. #28
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    When you look at 2-11, it shows you how badly we needed that Chapman signing.

    We were looking at 2012 as a rotation being made up of:

    Cueto
    Volquez
    Wood
    Bailey
    Thompson (if he comes back)
    Buck (if he comes back)
    ....and whatever we can get when we trade Phillips, Alonso, Harang, and/or Arroyo.
    I know they say you can never have enough pitching, but the Reds have plenty of viable options moving forward. We didn't need Chapman. Its great to have him, but with Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Maloney, Klinker, Lecure, Leake, Volquez and Chapman we have plenty of viable options to fill out a rotation in 2011/2012.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Klinker, Lecure and/or Maloney have legitimate shots to give us 25 starts for 2011 or 2012? That's good to know. But, won't those three be extremely inexperienced in 2011 and all of them be very lucky if they have ERA's under 5.00 as starters in 2011? It would be a bonus if one of them had an ERA under 4.50 and got 25 starts in 2012, to me. Again, my opinion on this is minimal, at best, as I know about 1/100th about them as you do. I haven't even seen them in person, and I haven't seen Klinker at all....just seen his numbers. Do any of them actually have a 50-50 chance of coming up with 25 starts in 2012 along with 25 starts? I am really interested to know. Thanks.

    I do lean on the side of "needing as much pitching as one can get". I've always felt that a team needs to go into March with at least 8 viable starters, as it so often pans out that half of them won't be ready by April and 3 of them will go down to injuries of some sorts by June, leaving 5 from June 1st to get you through for a while. There are exceptions, but they are more rare.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 01-27-2010 at 07:03 PM.

  16. #30
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    The stock is clearly dropping on Alonso:

    2010
    3 stars
    "Perfect World Projection: Alonso’s an everyday first baseman, but he’s not a huge star, and he’ll possibly be in need of a platoon partner."

    2009
    5 stars
    "Perfect World Projection: He should become a .300/.400/.550 first baseman."
    So what the heck happened? Didn't Alonso have a broken hammate bone that sapped his power last year? Are the scouts forgetting that when they assess him? Somehow "possibly in need of a platoon partner" doesn't sound like Yonder's upside to me... but whatever.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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