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Thread: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

  1. #46
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    My 'Smoak or broke' campaign didn't work. I'm still happy to have Alonso, though.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    The biggest problem I had with the Yonder pick, and I said so repeatedly at the time, was that his stick was going to have to be great (not merely good) to make it to the majors. He provides no value other than his bat since he cannot play any position other than 1B (or possibly LF, the jury is out on that). If he can't hit enough to make at as a 1B, he's less than worthless to the team.

    Well, here we are, and Alonso's been a disappointment with the bat. He needs a good, healthy, season in the worst way right now.
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The biggest problem I had with the Yonder pick, and I said so repeatedly at the time, was that his stick was going to have to be great (not merely good) to make it to the majors. He provides no value other than his bat since he cannot play any position other than 1B (or possibly LF, the jury is out on that). If he can't hit enough to make at as a 1B, he's less than worthless to the team.

    Well, here we are, and Alonso's been a disappointment with the bat. He needs a good, healthy, season in the worst way right now.
    How has Alonso been a disappointment with the bat?

  5. #49
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The biggest problem I had with the Yonder pick, and I said so repeatedly at the time, was that his stick was going to have to be great (not merely good) to make it to the majors. He provides no value other than his bat since he cannot play any position other than 1B (or possibly LF, the jury is out on that). If he can't hit enough to make at as a 1B, he's less than worthless to the team.

    Well, here we are, and Alonso's been a disappointment with the bat. He needs a good, healthy, season in the worst way right now.
    I just don't get it. Alonso destroyed the FSL then got hurt 2 weeks after his promotion and he had a disappointing season with the bat? If we look at everyone in the league with 200+ PA, Alonso had the 8th best average (tied), 15th highest OBP, 5th best SLG, 4th best OPS and 9th best XBH rate in the league. I just don't know what people expected.... for him to go Jay Bruce on the FSL, because well, no one does that. Alonso hit better in the FSL than a whole slew of big league all stars have at a similar age.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Klinker and Maloney sure. Inexperience doesn't always mean unable. Those guys are going to be 25 or older in 2011, not exactly spring chickens. They know how to pitch. As for getting them 25 starts, that is up to the Reds. I think that both are talented enough to get 25-30 starts a year at the back end of a rotation. Maloney probably winds up with that this season. He has to be the favorite for the #5 spot.
    I saw that ability to pitch in Maloney last season.

    I'm usually pretty pessimistic compared to others (realistic to me, of course) when it comes to pitchers having "moderate" success in the Majors. I rarely expect any pitcher to reach the "moderate" success level during their first two years in the Majors, and if they do so in their first year, I also expect a dropoff after that.

    The Johan Santana path is the one I commonly see:

    6.00+ ERA the first season.
    5.00+ ERA the second season.
    Then the pedigree/talent/experience all comes together in the third season with as many results as there are players. If a Pitcher does better than the 1st two seasons above, then instead of a continued drop in the ERA (I know there's a million other ways that are better to measure a pitcher), then it seems that there's usually a rise in the ERA the third season. That's because of the adjustments that take place between the pitcher and the league.

    It's such a huge leap to the Majors....bigger than any leap at any level I feel for a pitcher. Control/command always seems to be the biggest issue, not talent. They have to learn how to pitch. So, with Maloney's experience (and Klinker, you say, too, knows how to pitch), they could both have better than expected seasons their 1st or 2nd year in the Majors. This is where the Catcher makes a difference (we(redszone) had that discussion two years ago, and I won't go there again).


    Where does all of this put Owings? Is he going to be pinch-hitter/relief pitcher extraordinaire? He was quite the asset in that role last year.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski View Post
    I'm not down on Alonso, like some of these scouts, but I just wish we would have taken Beckham instead.

    I'm not mistaken, am I? Wasn't he available when we took Alonso?
    The consensus at Redszone was that the REDS should take Beckham, but that's not Walt's style. Walt wanted the most powerful Left-handed hitter available with the pick, and he got it. What he got was not the Adam Dunn type Power hitter, but the Jack Clark type power hitter.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Cozart sounds like a Janish with power.

    I want your 2013 Lineup and rotation projections... starting NOW. You may only use talent that is currently in the Reds organization now. You can also assume any current players being resigned. Thus, in 2013 if you think Brandon Phillips will be the best 2B of all the baseball players in the Reds organization, you put him as your 2B. Even if you don't think he will be with the team in 2013. Figured this would be a fun game until pitchers and catchers.

  9. #53
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseball Lover View Post
    Cozart sounds like a Janish with power.

    I want your 2013 Lineup and rotation projections... starting NOW. You may only use talent that is currently in the Reds organization now. You can also assume any current players being resigned. Thus, in 2013 if you think Brandon Phillips will be the best 2B of all the baseball players in the Reds organization, you put him as your 2B. Even if you don't think he will be with the team in 2013. Figured this would be a fun game until pitchers and catchers.
    Cozart should carry a higher average (and thus higher OBP) while playing lesser, yet still above average defense.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    It concerns me that Cozart's professional line is .265/.336/.410 while playing competition that is mostly younger than him (Age 22 at A-ball, and finishing his first season at AA at age 24). It's not hard to be better than Janish offensively, but I think Cozart may still be a mere replacement level player at the dish with a plus glove. Either way, I think one of the two will stick at SS given their slick gloves.

  11. #55
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Baseball Lover View Post
    It concerns me that Cozart's professional line is .265/.336/.410 while playing competition that is mostly younger than him (Age 22 at A-ball, and finishing his first season at AA at age 24). It's not hard to be better than Janish offensively, but I think Cozart may still be a mere replacement level player at the dish with a plus glove. Either way, I think one of the two will stick at SS given their slick gloves.
    He played all but 2 weeks of AA at age 23. That is prospect age. Cozart's career stats are dragged down by his first exposure as a pro when he had to rework his swing. Scouts see him as having above average power for a shortstop. In his full seasons he is a .270/.346/.426 hitter, he also got better in 2009 despite jumping over a level, a very positive thing. He won't be Hanley Ramirez, but he should be at the very least a .700 OPS bat at the major league level which is just slightly below average for a shortstop, though I think he could wind up much better than that offensively.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Gotcha. Thanks for the information Hope it works out for both of them.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus: Reds Top 11 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    The consensus at Redszone was that the REDS should take Beckham, but that's not Walt's style. Walt wanted the most powerful Left-handed hitter available with the pick, and he got it. What he got was not the Adam Dunn type Power hitter, but the Jack Clark type power hitter.
    Good point. I'll take Jack Clark power any day.


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