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Thread: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

  1. #16
    Member Nasty_Boy's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Wasn't in favor of him making the roster... But I guess sometimes you can make chicken salad outta chicken $h**! Just hoping Rolen makes it back before Cairo turns into a pumpkin.
    I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. - Our Beloved Manager

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  3. #17
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The good thing about pinch hitters though is that you're not asking them to be great for long periods. If most folks are being ingenuous, getting a good pinch hitter is like playing craps. There's not much science to it--if there were, those best pinch hitters would be starters.
    The thing is though is that he has hit .172/.194/.217 as a pinch-hitter and .343/.420/.485 as a starter.

    Chris Heisey, on the other hand, has been a terrific pinch-hitter...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  4. #18
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    The thing is though is that he has hit .172/.194/.217 as a pinch-hitter and .343/.420/.485 as a starter...
    Still doesn't really change my point. He was thrust into "starter" role by the injury.

    For the record, I'm not saying Cairo's any kind of answer, just that it's sort of pointless to get worked up over him whatever your inclination may be. It's just small sample futzing. My take on PH/subs is that they should have a bit of pop. Having OB is nice, but again, if he gets OB a lot he's a starter.

    Well, and Heisey should be a starter. I guess it's definitional, semantic. Heisey's a good pinch hitter because he's a good hitter.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 07-24-2010 at 02:46 PM.

  5. #19
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    I will admit that when I was sitting down the LF line on Opening Day, I was nonplussed that Cairo was on the team. (I had wanted Drew Sutton for the utility infielder role.) But Miguel has won me over. As a utility infielder, he doesn't have to be a great player--if he were, then he would be a starter (as FCB said). He has been a solid backup who accepts his role, and a decent fill-in at 1B and 3B. (He could probably also play 2B, though he hasn't been needed there, what with Phillips and Janish on the team.) Is he the long-term answer in case of injury? Probably not, but I have no problem with him as a backup INF and right-handed PH.
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  6. #20
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    I don't think it would be uncommon to find on odd stretch 145 PAs from a mid-30's journeyman player that look a lot like what Migehrig has put up this year.

    It's great that he's done that, I wouldn't press my luck relying on it.
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I wouldn't press my luck relying on it.
    I'd like to know who is relying on it. My guess is that the FO understands he's a fill-in.

  8. #22
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd like to know who is relying on it. My guess is that the FO understands he's a fill-in.
    Exactly. If Cairo hadn't gotten the job done, Walt would not have wasted any time jettisoning him and bringing in someone else to fill in (like Sutton, Burke, Frazier, Valaika, or some unemployed free agent). Remember, back in March many at RedsZone lamented that Walt had already annointed Miles as the heir to the utility role. But when he couldn't get the job done in Spring Training, Walt cut him loose. He would have had no qualms about doing the same to Cairo if Miguel had been unsuccessful.
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Miggy!

    I like it when guys who are summarily dismissed as "unworthy of a major league uniform," and the like invective, turn out to perform well.

    Cairo's been tremendous.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #24
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    I'm sure this will be dismissed, but when Cairo was signed, very few saw this team actually contending for a play-off spot. On a growing team, it seemed that a spot as the offensive minded back-up infielder might be better used on a guy like Sutton who could switch hit, had a similar "get a few hits and be simply adequate on defense" profile while cutting his teeth on the back-up role that will likely be his career. Not sure I speak for everyone, but I would have liked to have seen him grow into that type of role for the next few years when this team projected to be a contender.

    Fact is, the team is getting its career years from Rolen, Phillips and maybe even Votto now and with the kids getting expensive after this season, Arroyo's future status a bit iffy and the unlikelihood of a repeat from some of its key guys, this was the right year to bring in the vet. Cairo has done well and its been a nice convergence of need, contention and performance that has made this move look like a stroke of genius (got it right this time). But, if we weren't getting so many surprises to put the team into contention, Cairo would have been a waste of time regardless of his performance.
    Last edited by mth123; 07-24-2010 at 04:28 PM.
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  11. #25
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    I have always argued (and never convinced anyone... as usual) that the key to being a great GM is being able to pick out the outliers, those guys who are likely to outproduce their projections. Jocketty really has shown a feel for this over his 15 years of being a GM.

    Just off the top of my head, here's a list of guys who did better than what their stats projected, at least for a full season, after they were picked up by Jocketty:

    Petkovsek
    Bottenfeld
    Deshields
    Edmunds
    W. Clark
    Cairo (Stl '02)
    W. Williams
    E. Perez
    Taguchi
    A. Miles
    Ludwick
    Cairo (Cin '09)
    J Hairston
    Gomes

    There are a lot more, but I tried to avoid pitchers that people could claim were the result of Duncan's magic.

    I know most will say it's luck, but I say that this is what separates a good GM from a great GM. The Twins and Braves have been doing it for decades too. I think there is a real art to it that overrides the science.

    Of course, this means that none of us should feel bad for not liking the Cairo signing. It just means we're not as talented as Jocketty.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  12. #26
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I don't think it would be uncommon to find on odd stretch 145 PAs from a mid-30's journeyman player that look a lot like what Migehrig has put up this year.

    It's great that he's done that, I wouldn't press my luck relying on it.
    Instead of looking for the way not to credit the team for an acquisition that worked out, we should just say that it was a good move and the team is better for it.

  13. #27
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Instead of looking for the way not to credit the team for an acquisition that worked out, we should just say that it was a good move and the team is better for it.
    Well put.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  14. #28
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm sure this will be dismissed, but when Cairo was signed, very few saw this team actually contending for a play-off spot. On a growing team, it seemed that a spot as the offensive minded back-up infielder might be better used on a guy like Sutton who could switch hit, had a similar "get a few hits and be simply adequate on defense" profile while cutting his teeth on the back-up role that will likely be his career. Not sure I speak for everyone, but I would have liked to have seen him grow into that type of role for the next few years when this team projected to be a contender.

    Fact is, the team is getting its career years from Rolen, Phillips and maybe even Votto now and with the kids getting expensive after this season, Arroyo's future status a bit iffy and the unlikelihood of a repeat from some of its key guys, this was the right year to bring in the vet. Cairo has done well and its been a nice convergence of need, contention and performance that has made this move look like a stroke of genius (got it right this time). But, if we weren't getting so many surprises to put the team into contention, Cairo would have been a waste of time regardless of his performance.
    Wouldn't dismiss this analysis at all. Agree 100%.

  15. #29
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I have always argued (and never convinced anyone... as usual) that the key to being a great GM is being able to pick out the outliers, those guys who are likely to outproduce their projections. Jocketty really has shown a feel for this over his 15 years of being a GM.
    Blasphemy! Don't you know that guys never outproduce their projections, stats tell the whole story and what happens on the field is merely redundant, because computers and calculators could spell the outcomes of entire seasons? How dare you bring this kind of thinking to Redszone!

    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

  16. #30
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Sometimes bad decisions work out well -- it doesn't mean they were good decisions.
    I have to take issue with this (in a polite way).

    If Cairo continues to play as well as he has so far, filling in admirably for Rolen, then it most definitely was a good decision. It may have appeared to be bad at the time, but, in cases like this, the results of the decision determine whether it was a good one or not.

    I would suggest that we set the lifetime stats aside for a little bit and just enjoy the fact that he is contributing quite well to this team. And pull for him to continue playing so well. He may very well slump off, but that doesn't diminish the fact that he's done his job well and helped this team be in the hunt for the division title.


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