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Thread: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

  1. #31
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by durl View Post

    I would suggest that we set the lifetime stats aside for a little bit and just enjoy the fact that he is contributing quite well to this team. And pull for him to continue playing so well. He may very well slump off, but that doesn't diminish the fact that he's done his job well and helped this team be in the hunt for the division title.
    +1
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

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  3. #32
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    +1
    +2

  4. #33
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by durl View Post
    I have to take issue with this (in a polite way).

    If Cairo continues to play as well as he has so far, filling in admirably for Rolen, then it most definitely was a good decision. It may have appeared to be bad at the time, but, in cases like this, the results of the decision determine whether it was a good one or not.

    I would suggest that we set the lifetime stats aside for a little bit and just enjoy the fact that he is contributing quite well to this team. And pull for him to continue playing so well. He may very well slump off, but that doesn't diminish the fact that he's done his job well and helped this team be in the hunt for the division title.
    I'm not quite sure I understand your logic. Does "times like this" mean that we should tailor the way we go about evaluating a decision (not the conclusion itself but the actual process for arriving at it) based on the way it works out rather than by using a consistent approach? That seems like cherry picking to me.

    Sometimes good decisions don't end up having good outcomes and sometimes bad ones do. I believe the best way to evaluate a decision is based on the information that was available at the time the decision was made. Unless you believe that Jocketty was expecting this level of performance, I find it hard to give him credit for a "good decision" simply because Cairo is putting together a career year at age 36. If you you prefer to base your assessment on outcomes, we'll have agree to disagree.

    But in any event what makes you think:
    A. I'm not enjoying the fact that he is contributing?
    B. I'm not pulling for him to continue playing well?
    C. I'm trying to diminish his contributions?

    While I appreciate your polite tone, frankly I take offense at the notion that I am unable to be critical of a decision and yet appreciative of its outcome -- that I'm somehow a lesser fan for not being all sunshine and rainbows. If you (and others apparently) really believe that I don't enjoy it when a player does well simply because I disagree with the decision to roster them, then I guess that makes it a little clearer why people are hostile to my perspective so often.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #34
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Despite his stats, he's the first player I'd DFA in almost any transaction that brings in a new player.

  6. #35
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Despite his stats, he's the first player I'd DFA in almost any transaction that brings in a new player.
    Maybe, but you have to count on someone to fill in at multiple positions as Rolen can't be considered reliable based on recent history and his current hammy issue. Janish and Cairo are nice options in that regard.

    For 2010, Cairo needs to stay. I can't believe I actually wrote that, but it is fairly obvious at this point.

    There would be other ways to maneuver the roster depending on the addition. On Sept 1 the rosters expand. Demoting Bray until then is one option among many.

  7. #36
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Despite his stats, he's the first player I'd DFA in almost any transaction that brings in a new player.
    Not even close.

  8. #37
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    I just take issue with those who seemingly want to judge a decision solely based on what is known at the time it is made. You must factor in performance afterwards to some degree.

  9. #38
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Does "times like this" mean that we should tailor the way we go about evaluating a decision (not the conclusion itself but the actual process for arriving at it) based on the way it works out rather than by using a consistent approach? That seems like cherry picking to me.
    I see it this way. When it comes to signing guys who might be your 24th/25th guy, it's not about the stats. There are other considerations, and these are generally ignored by quite a few folks. I don't even debate it any more, it's a lost cause. Cairo, and others like him -- Juan Castro has continued to find major league employment on good teams -- bring those qualities that do not show up on a stat line. Some folks recognize it, others don't.

    So, in the message board context, when a guy like Cairo performs well, it is satisfying to me in that it prevents those who do not recognize that he has any value from waxing bilious about his qualifications to be in the major leagues.

    Because, without question, he has *proven* that he can have value on the very grounds that the skeptics had so indignantly claimed.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #39
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'm not quite sure I understand your logic. Does "times like this" mean that we should tailor the way we go about evaluating a decision (not the conclusion itself but the actual process for arriving at it) based on the way it works out rather than by using a consistent approach? That seems like cherry picking to me.

    Sometimes good decisions don't end up having good outcomes and sometimes bad ones do. I believe the best way to evaluate a decision is based on the information that was available at the time the decision was made. Unless you believe that Jocketty was expecting this level of performance, I find it hard to give him credit for a "good decision" simply because Cairo is putting together a career year at age 36. If you you prefer to base your assessment on outcomes, we'll have agree to disagree.

    But in any event what makes you think:
    A. I'm not enjoying the fact that he is contributing?
    B. I'm not pulling for him to continue playing well?
    C. I'm trying to diminish his contributions?

    While I appreciate your polite tone, frankly I take offense at the notion that I am unable to be critical of a decision and yet appreciative of its outcome -- that I'm somehow a lesser fan for not being all sunshine and rainbows. If you (and others apparently) really believe that I don't enjoy it when a player does well simply because I disagree with the decision to roster them, then I guess that makes it a little clearer why people are hostile to my perspective so often.
    So far you were wrong and I was completely wrong..

    Just say it. It doesn't hurt being wrong sometimes.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  11. #40
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I just take issue with those who seemingly want to judge a decision solely based on what is known at the time it is made. You must factor in performance afterwards to some degree.
    I don't understand why you "must" do so. Why do you give somebody credit/penalty for things beyond their control or which could not have been foreseen by anyone?

    For me, the only value in looking back in this way is to inform how we look forward. Giving people credit for good/bad luck just makes our future decisions harder.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #41
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I don't understand why you "must" do so. Why do you give somebody credit/penalty for things beyond their control or which could not have been foreseen by anyone?

    For me, the only value in looking back in this way is to inform how we look forward. Giving people credit for good/bad luck just makes our future decisions harder.
    Good GMs make a living knowing when to buy low and sell high. Same with stock pickers. Warren Buffett has bought some down and out stocks yet made a fortune on them...thats why he's the king (of course he's had some luck). I'm not discounting completely evaluating a move at the time, but you must factor in results to a certain degree.

  13. #42
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I see it this way. When it comes to signing guys who might be your 24th/25th guy, it's not about the stats. There are other considerations, and these are generally ignored by quite a few folks. I don't even debate it any more, it's a lost cause. Cairo, and others like him -- Juan Castro has continued to find major league employment on good teams -- bring those qualities that do not show up on a stat line. Some folks recognize it, others don't.

    So, in the message board context, when a guy like Cairo performs well, it is satisfying to me in that it prevents those who do not recognize that he has any value from waxing bilious about his qualifications to be in the major leagues.

    Because, without question, he has *proven* that he can have value on the very grounds that the skeptics had so indignantly claimed.
    Good post.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  14. #43
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I don't understand why you "must" do so. Why do you give somebody credit/penalty for things beyond their control or which could not have been foreseen by anyone?

    For me, the only value in looking back in this way is to inform how we look forward. Giving people credit for good/bad luck just makes our future decisions harder.
    I think the hole in the logic is that sometimes we think we have all the info at hand when a decision is made. Maybe Walt didn't see Cairo performing as well as he has to the last decimal point in wOBA or OPS or anything else, but what he did see was a guy who he thought could help the team both on and off the field for the amount of money that he had at his disposal. And his choice has worked out well to this point. Just because it wasn't the flashy or popular choice or one that was backed up by the stats or pundits, it doesn't mean that the FO couldn't have forseen the guy making a positive contribution to the team.

  15. #44
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I think the hole in the logic is that sometimes we think we have all the info at hand when a decision is made. Maybe Walt didn't see Cairo performing as well as he has to the last decimal point in wOBA or OPS or anything else, but what he did see was a guy who he thought could help the team both on and off the field for the amount of money that he had at his disposal. And his choice has worked out well to this point. Just because it wasn't the flashy or popular choice or one that was backed up by the stats or pundits, it doesn't mean that the FO couldn't have forseen the guy making a positive contribution to the team.
    As I stated before, Jocketty has a talent in seeing beyond the stats on role players, and picking guys who perform above their projections, and/or who help the team win in other ways. He seems to do it every year. In fact, this is the second time he's done it with Cairo.

    Maybe it's luck, but I think it's inaccurate to conclude that it had to be luck alone, and that there was no way Jocketty could have foreseen that Cairo would have helped the team. He's done it enough times, that it's probably more likely that he does know what he's doing and not just getting lucky everytime.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  16. #45
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Despite his stats, he's the first player I'd DFA in almost any transaction that brings in a new player.
    Over Nix? I'd rather keep Cairo at this point over Nix.

    Cairo has been everything and more you hope out of bench player. Doesn't mean he will continue to do so in the future, but he's been very solid this year.


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