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Thread: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

  1. #46
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Good GMs make a living knowing when to buy low and sell high. Same with stock pickers. Warren Buffett has bought some down and out stocks yet made a fortune on them...thats why he's the king (of course he's had some luck). I'm not discounting completely evaluating a move at the time, but you must factor in results to a certain degree.
    It's funny you bring up Buffet. Buffet is the perfect sabermetric type. His entire philosophy is about doing the research and investing in companies with solid fundamentals which are well positioned in the market. He's not a guy who takes a flier on a stock because he "has a good feeling" about it.

    Simply repeating "you must..." does not convince me of your position. That Buffet has been so successful over the long run is evidence that his process is the best in the business. Because outcomes are affected by so many things, it takes awhile before you have enough of them to really indicate the quality of the decisions behind them. There is so much noise and other factors that a person can make a string of bad decisions and still wind up with good outcomes. If we judge on outcomes, we're liable to both fool ourselves in to trusting people who will fail in the long run and ignore people who will succeed. Outcomes themselves are only good evidence of the quality of the decisions behind them once you have a whole bunch of them such that "luck" is filtered out -- it's not a good way to evaluate a single decision.

    A good decision is one made in which the most likely outcomes are good. All that said, I will absolutely concede the point that Jocketty may have signed Cairo not for his bat, but for his leadership. We don't know what information he had available at the time. But I promise you that no information he had suggested Cairo would hit like this. Virtually any player with MLB service time could have made positive contributions. I have a hard time believing that Jocketty knew something special about Cairo other than that he could play a few positions, be a clubhouse leader, and make some contact. That he's hitting the way he is has does not suggest to me that Jocketty had some magical foresight.

    Let's just agree that he's having a nice season which we all hope continues and leave it at that.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-25-2010 at 04:18 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #47
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I see it this way. When it comes to signing guys who might be your 24th/25th guy, it's not about the stats. There are other considerations, and these are generally ignored by quite a few folks. I don't even debate it any more, it's a lost cause. Cairo, and others like him -- Juan Castro has continued to find major league employment on good teams -- bring those qualities that do not show up on a stat line. Some folks recognize it, others don't.

    So, in the message board context, when a guy like Cairo performs well, it is satisfying to me in that it prevents those who do not recognize that he has any value from waxing bilious about his qualifications to be in the major leagues.

    Because, without question, he has *proven* that he can have value on the very grounds that the skeptics had so indignantly claimed.
    The slash line is not an all powerful god, the game is an alchemists dream, a little science, a little magic and you'll likely get a satisfying result, lean too much into one discipline and watch the gears move a little less smoothly.

  4. #48
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    Over Nix? I'd rather keep Cairo at this point over Nix.

    Cairo has been everything and more you hope out of bench player. Doesn't mean he will continue to do so in the future, but he's been very solid this year.
    Overall, Nix and Cairo are pretty much a wash for me, but at least Nix can do a good job as a left-handed pinch hitter. Nix will be non-tendered after the season anyway, so it really wouldn't bother me if he were DFAed.

  5. #49
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Rick, stop beating the strawman that anyone has claimed that Walt knew that Cairo would be this successful.

  6. #50
    Member durl's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'm not quite sure I understand your logic. Does "times like this" mean that we should tailor the way we go about evaluating a decision (not the conclusion itself but the actual process for arriving at it) based on the way it works out rather than by using a consistent approach? That seems like cherry picking to me.
    By "times like this" I was referring to selecting baseball players for a team. (I apologize for my vagueness...I was watching kids at the time.) Baseball, as much as we love it, is still a game. Decisions can be evaluated as good or bad after things have had an opportunity to play out. When it comes to sports, not everything can be seen on paper.

    My personal belief is that, in our day-to-day life, most decisions are good or bad based upon principle, not how they play out. Cheating on taxes is always bad, even if you never get caught. Rightly or wrongly, I view sports a little differently.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Sometimes good decisions don't end up having good outcomes and sometimes bad ones do. I believe the best way to evaluate a decision is based on the information that was available at the time the decision was made. Unless you believe that Jocketty was expecting this level of performance, I find it hard to give him credit for a "good decision" simply because Cairo is putting together a career year at age 36. If you you prefer to base your assessment on outcomes, we'll have agree to disagree.

    But in any event what makes you think:
    A. I'm not enjoying the fact that he is contributing?
    B. I'm not pulling for him to continue playing well?
    C. I'm trying to diminish his contributions?

    While I appreciate your polite tone, frankly I take offense at the notion that I am unable to be critical of a decision and yet appreciative of its outcome -- that I'm somehow a lesser fan for not being all sunshine and rainbows. If you (and others apparently) really believe that I don't enjoy it when a player does well simply because I disagree with the decision to roster them, then I guess that makes it a little clearer why people are hostile to my perspective so often.
    In baseball, perhaps it's semantics; a bad decision that turned out good, or a good decision. If a manager lets a lousy batter pinch-hit and he ends up with a game-winning HR, I see that as a "good decision," not a "bad decision" that had a good result.

    I may have been too quick to lump your statements in with those who seem to focus on the lifetime stats and ignore that good stuff that's happening now. I apologize for offending you in doing that. You did say that you appreciated Cairo's contribution and I didn't mean to intentionally ignore that part of your comment. You gave plenty of reasons why you believe Cairo's signing was a bad decision and they are valid points. I don't see where I questioned your loyalty or your attitude. I'm sorry if that came across in my post.

    Did Jocketty expect Cairo to have a career year? I doubt it, but he was signed to a minor league contract and we were told that his pluses were his maturity and experience, not his ability to hit .300. And it didn't cost a lot of money to sign him.

    My point is that we should just enjoy the ride. I fully understand and appreciate looking at trends (it's my job, actually) but the unpredictable human element has a way of shrugging those off from time to time. In sports, it's hard for me to view something as "bad" when the outcome is good for the team.
    Last edited by durl; 07-26-2010 at 11:43 AM.

  7. #51
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    I was pretty harsh on Rick myself and I apologize for my gruffness. I just see Miguel Cairo having a really nice season for dirt cheap and I click on the thread expecting to see him or Walt get a tip of the hat, but literally the first post I read says it was a bad decision. If we want to judge solely based on the information we have at the time, shouldn't we acknowledge that we don't have all the information that Walt has, which would make our evaluation somewhat incomplete. Now thats not the way I view it myself, but on things like the Cairo and Rolen transactions, the dissenters are very quick to say that b/c it was a bad decision at the time, it will NEVER be a good decision. It is mind bottling (you know it just gets all bottled up in your mind ) that people can make such a blanket statement when they do not have all the info that Walt or the front office has.

  8. #52
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I was pretty harsh on Rick myself and I apologize for my gruffness. I just see Miguel Cairo having a really nice season for dirt cheap and I click on the thread expecting to see him or Walt get a tip of the hat, but literally the first post I read says it was a bad decision. If we want to judge solely based on the information we have at the time, shouldn't we acknowledge that we don't have all the information that Walt has, which would make our evaluation somewhat incomplete.
    Isn't that already understood?

    Now thats not the way I view it myself, but on things like the Cairo and Rolen transactions, the dissenters are very quick to say that b/c it was a bad decision at the time, it will NEVER be a good decision. It is mind bottling (you know it just gets all bottled up in your mind ) that people can make such a blanket statement when they do not have all the info that Walt or the front office has.
    But neither do those in favor of the transactions you mentioned. Appeal to authority cuts both ways.

    Cairo has played well. Great!

    It wasn't a signing with a high probability of being great but it's worked out so far. He has his highest wOBA of his long career.

    I'm pretty sure even his mother didn't see that coming.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  9. #53
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    It is mind bottling (you know it just gets all bottled up in your mind ) that people can make such a blanket statement when they do not have all the info that Walt or the front office has.
    Or, they reject that certain kinds of information -- information a club may consider important -- has value. They simply cannot perceive that certain kinds of statements about a player's worth have any merit.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #54
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    This might matter if Cairo were an expensive signing or if bench players weren't essentially a roll of the dice (especially for teams who can't pay starters to be bench guys), but neither of the above is the case, so I don't understand the point of this conversation.

    Walt rolled the dice, gave him a trial, and Cairo worked out. It happens all the time. There's no method to it.

  11. #55
    Moderator Plus Plus's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    This might matter if Cairo were an expensive signing or if bench players weren't essentially a roll of the dice (especially for teams who can't pay starters to be bench guys), but neither of the above is the case, so I don't understand the point of this conversation.

    Walt rolled the dice, gave him a trial, and Cairo worked out. It happens all the time. There's no method to it.
    I agree wholeheartedly.
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  12. #56
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    This might matter if Cairo were an expensive signing or if bench players weren't essentially a roll of the dice (especially for teams who can't pay starters to be bench guys), but neither of the above is the case, so I don't understand the point of this conversation.

    Walt rolled the dice, gave him a trial, and Cairo worked out. It happens all the time. There's no method to it.
    It has no point.. It's just hard to sometimes say that projections are sometimes just that.. projections. Admitting those numbers/projections might have led to a bias against Cairo isn't in their blood.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  13. #57
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Isn't that already understood?



    But neither do those in favor of the transactions you mentioned. Appeal to authority cuts both ways.

    Cairo has played well. Great!

    It wasn't a signing with a high probability of being great but it's worked out so far. He has his highest wOBA of his long career.

    I'm pretty sure even his mother didn't see that coming.
    I'm pretty sure that Walt wasn't running the numbers and coming up with an .800 plus OPS for Cairo. But just because he wasn't doesn't mean he got lucky.

  14. #58
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Sign Miguel Cairo

    A nice article about Migehrig in Fangraphs today:

    At 36 Cairo is not in the midst of a career revival, but instead is making one last run while heís still considered an option as a utility player. His .355 wOBA is by far the highest of his career. Last year he produced a wOBA of over .300 for the first time since 2004, and even then it was .304 in 47 PA. Before that he had a .336 wOBA as the regular second baseman for the Yankees in 2004. He hasnít eclipsed the 400 PA mark since that year. Even this year he figures to clock in under the 250 PA mark, but unlike in years past he has been quite effective.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"


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