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Thread: Which Orlando it Be? (Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera)

  1. #46
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    Re: Which Orlando it Be? (Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera)

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    So you willing to make the bet then?

    I said Cabrera will OBP over .325 for the year.
    I also say Janish won't OBP over .300 for the year.

    Not in "games they start", just overall for the season.

    Take it or leave it?

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I can't take the bet on Janish because his pinch-hitting and late-game substitutions will lower his OBP. (As you know, when you pinch-hit, you're supposed to be up there looking for the fastball and swinging when you get one. Walking as a pinch-hitter doesn't happens a lot less frequently because of this.) I don't think he'll get enough at-bats as a starter to make up for it. Can't see more than 150 AB's for Janish on the year now and 40-60 will be as pinch-hitter/late-inning replacement AB's.

    I'm pretty confident that Cabrera's OBP will be .300-.315, so yes...I would take that bet. Small margin for error on both our parts, but Domino's supposedly has a new recipe.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Which Orlando it Be? (Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera)

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    From Fangraphs:

    Orlando to Cincinnati
    by Jack Moore - February 2, 2010 - Share this Article

    As the Redsí rebuilding efforts move closer and closer to contention in 2010, one remaining roster hole was at SS, where incumbent Paul Janish failed to impress in 2009. The Reds attempted to boost the position on Monday, as the team agreed to a one-year contract with Orlando Cabrera that will pay the 35-year-old 3.02 million dollars.

    Cabrera is a known quantity when it comes to his batting. Respectively, over the last two years, Cabreraís put up 88 and 89 wRC+ totals against a career average of 90. Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and the Fans all have him between 87 and 89. Over 600 plate appearances, thatís about 8 or 9 runs below average.

    What will define Cabreraís productivity in 2010 will be his defense. After consistently posting great fielding numbers in the UZR era, including a +30 overall total and +8 and +14 totals in 2007 and 2008, O-Cab hit a wall in 2009. In split time between Oakland and Minnesota, Cabrera put up an atrocious -15.3 UZR in 2010. Itís hard to imagine a player collapsing that quickly, especially one as durable as Cabrera (700+ PAs in three straight seasons). Given the measurement error possible in one season of UZR, itís probable that Cabrera isnít a -15 fielder now. However, given his age, it is also quite possible if not likely that Cabrera is now a below-average fielder.

    Depending on if you think Cabrera is as bad as he is last year (0.5 WAR), just below average, or about -5 UZR (1.5 WAR), or still above average, or about +5 UZR (2.5 WAR), Cabrera is either a steal at $3M or a terrible signing. To the Reds, whatís more important than this signing in a vacuum is the kind of upgrade he represents over Janish.

    Paul Janish may be most famous for his 90 MPH fastball, which he flashed in two Reds games last year en route to a 49.50 ERA. Janish put up a stellar +12 UZR last season in a mere 82 games (63 starts), a number backed up by excellent Fanís Scouting Report numbers. Itís hard to believe that heís the +24 UZR SS that his 2009 UZR numbers suggest, but +5, as CHONE projects, is very reasonable and better is possible if not probable.

    Janish just canít hit. He hasnít hit in the minors since A-ball and hasnít put up a .700+ OPS in AA or AAA, and in 300 major league PAs, he posted a meager 60 wRC+. His BABIP was atrocious last year, at .240, but as a fly ball hitter with minimial power (only above .100 minor league ISO once) and with many infield flies (16.0% IFFB, 7% of total PA). Even with BABIP improvement, CHONE projects a slight increase, to a 77 wRC+, but thatís still brutal. As a +5 SS, that sort of hitting perfomance makes Janish worth about 1.3 wins. With room for breakout and better fielding numbers, Janish could approach 2 WAR, much like Cabreraís upside.

    From a resource standpoint, it doesnít appear that this is the best use of the Redsí money. On the surface, Cabrera doesnít appear to be a major upgrade over Janish. However, we canít evaluate this deal in a vacuum. The Reds donít have any other major holes in their roster, perhaps apart from depth. Given the lack of game-changing talent left on the free agent market, both at the SS position and overall, Cabrera should be a good addition. Cabrera wonít be a significant overpay unless his fielding collapse is real, and the depth added by this move could be key if the Reds find themselves in contention this year.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-to-cincinnati
    I hadn't read this. That was a good analysis and is basically a compilation of what you and I are both saying. What they wrote is also how I feel about it, and it seems very close to how you feel about it.

  4. #48
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    Re: Which Orlando it Be? (Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    On this team, he's too much of an Offensive liability. If he had Gold Glove skills, then he'd be an asset, but I don't think that's where he is at right now defensively.

    Anyway, I think Walt will be looking for a starter, and will find one before the season begins, or at worst, a platoon at Shortstop.
    So what happened to this opinion?
    Looks like Walt did exactly what you said, and now you backtrack on Janish?

    Hmm....

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

  5. #49
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    Re: Which Orlando it Be? (Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera)

    I agree with Jones1. Heisey is the wild card all along. If he makes the team, he bats #2. Dickerson is the 4th outfielder. I think this is that hangup on Gomes contract.

    Although I really like BP batting 2nd and Rolen 4th, with Heisey batting 7th behind Cabrera.

    ST is going to be great this year.

  6. #50
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    Re: Which Orlando it Be? (Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera)

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Burton View Post
    Hate this signing, guy is terrible and on top of that he's considered a cancer. This is basically throwing money away...
    Could you substantiate any of this blather? The only team related thing I've read about him is how much better Minnesota became after they traded for him. That is assuming you are talking about Cabrera.

    Now if your comments were about Willy T. I get it, but you do know Walt traded him, right...

  7. #51
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    Re: Which Orlando it Be? (Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    I answered your questions inside the quote in parentheses.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    I can't take the bet on Janish because his pinch-hitting and late-game substitutions will lower his OBP. (As you know, when you pinch-hit, you're supposed to be up there looking for the fastball and swinging when you get one. Walking as a pinch-hitter doesn't happens a lot less frequently because of this.) I don't think he'll get enough at-bats as a starter to make up for it. Can't see more than 150 AB's for Janish on the year now and 40-60 will be as pinch-hitter/late-inning replacement AB's.

    I'm pretty confident that Cabrera's OBP will be .300-.315, so yes...I would take that bet. Small margin for error on both our parts, but Domino's supposedly has a new recipe.
    The season's 1/5th over...Cabrera's OBP is .303.

  8. #52
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    Re: Which Orlando it Be? (Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera)

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    So you willing to make the bet then?

    I said Cabrera will OBP over .325 for the year.
    I also say Janish won't OBP over .300 for the year.

    Not in "games they start", just overall for the season.

    Take it or leave it?

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    With the season 5/9th's over with,....

    Cabrera's OBP is a robust .283.
    Janish's OBP is a studly .397.

  9. #53
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    Re: Which Orlando it Be? (Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera)

    Looks like Heisey is hitting in the two hole as a predicted. This will be the second game for him in the two spot!


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