Reds sign Orlando Cabrera to one-year, $3M deal; option for second year

[marcshoe]

Just to be clear, Cabrera's obp of .316 last year followed seasons of .335, .345, and .334 Before that, he had an abysmal .309 in his first year with the Angels. and is .322 lifetime. He's not ideal top-of-the-order, but he's not Willy T. Sure, I expect Dusty to bat him higher in the lineup than he should, but as traderumor said, this is all about context. Willy T. shouldn't be there--I hope he doesn't even go north(east) with the team.

My belief is that this is one of the last pieces that will solidify the lineup.

[steig]

I like this signing, I know OCab is on the downward slope. But his offense should be better moving to the NL and hitting in GABP. I also feel that his offense could be enough of an improvement over Janish to make this signing worth while.

[wheels]

I'm just kinda "blah" about the cat.

He probably won't kill the club if he's used properly (ahem!), and he USED to be a pretty decent defender.

Thing is, when a shortstop loses a step or two, and he's never been a great offensive player to begin with.....Well, I think it might end up like another Alex Gonzalez type of situation.

Good thing it's a short contract.

[Scrap Irony]

This isn't directed at you, Scrap, but what would the feeling(s) have been around here had the Reds NOT signed Cabrera?

Pretty much the same as they are now, IMO. Some (Spring Fields, for example) think Cincinnati has an offense that is the worst in the league, or close to it, and no amount of discussion is going to change his mind.

Some think the offense is slightly below average now, but may become average to above with a couple moves (this one and a LF FA), a big year by Bruce, and health. (This is my opinion, BTW.)

Others (like mth) think the offense need be balanced by the defense and that Jocketty likely overpaid for a meager offensive punch at the cost of a superior glove in the middle of the infield and that the Red offense needs to come from the corners.

Then there are those that will poo-poo every move made with sarcastic comments about Jocketty being old or asleep and Duh-sty being an idiot and the Reds being sucky because, they'll insist, that's the way it's been for a decade and nothing has changed because... well, they'd know it if it had. Or something like that.

And then there are those that are right... I haven't met any of those yet.

[thatcoolguy_22]

I was looking forward to watching Janish start the entire season. I think Jojo hit it spot on though, Cabrera's floor floor should be easier to project than Janish's (hence the signing). The more I think about it the more I think this is just a named bandaid for SS. With his advanced age and probable defense I see him posting very similar WAR numbers to what Janish would have put up. I'm just not really excited about this move, very meh imo.

[westofyou]

His batting was better in Minnesota and I suspect his fielding numbers were affected by the turf there as well. He's a lot like Leo Cardenas, has some OB issues, has some pop, questionable defense now and then, good defense now and then, a lot of personality.

In 1969 the Reds traded Leo to the Twins, he helped them make the post season for the first time in 36 years, one could only hope for an equal impact from Cabrea.

While he is not Barry Larkin in his prime he's also certainly better than Janish, and make no mistake the Reds feel that Janish is not a game changer, he can't carry a team with his bat and they must feel his glove is not up to the task alone either.

[OUReds]

For Janish to have any value at all, he doesn't just have to be good with the glove, he has to be really, REALLY good. Like best in the league good.
Yes, the early returns last year were encouraging, but I (nor apparently the Reds) am not ready to hand him the starting job based on 63 starts worth of defensive data in the majors. There is also the little fact that we had absolutely no major league depth at the position. If Janish went down, would anyone be comfortable with Cozart there this year? Not I.

Janish will get plenty of play if used correctly. He should get 1-2 starts a week and be in the game for the 7-8-9 innings when we have a lead. We'll have a better idea of what we have after this year.

[edabbs44]

For Janish to have any value at all, he doesn't just have to be good with the glove, he has to be really, REALLY good. Like best in the league good.
Yes, the early returns last year were encouraging, but I (nor apparently the Reds) am not ready to hand him the starting job based on 63 starts worth of defensive data in the majors. There is also the little fact that we had absolutely no major league depth at the position. If Janish went down, would anyone be comfortable with Cozart there this year? Not I.

Janish will get plenty of play if used correctly. He should get 1-2 starts a week and be in the game for the 7-8-9 innings when we have a lead. We'll have a better idea of what we have after this year.

And I'd give him the job vs LHPs. Let those 1-2 starts come versus them and this has a decent shot of working out really well.

[OUReds]

And I'd give him the job vs LHPs. Let those 1-2 starts come versus them and this has a decent shot of working out really well.

Yep, absolutely.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Solid. Even if you think Janish would have got the job done as the everyday SS (which I don't) there were no other real shortstops on the roster. So, at worst, this provides depth. At best, the Reds just found an above-average starting SS, which is far better than Janish could have provided.

I was hoping this deal would go through and I'm glad to see it did. Not the kind of move that will make or break the season, but it gets us a step closer to being a contender. And if the Reds stay healthy ... who knows. I think they'll at least hang in there if they can stay healthy (which is a big if when you have old guys at 3B and SS). The starting pitching staff is very solid (bullpen is decent too) and I think getting a legit SS was the final big piece of the puzzle.

The final small piece is signing Gomes. Let's hope that happens and then the offseason will be complete. A rather interesting offseason after a very boring start. Chapman of course being the highlight -- something that won't pay dividends until down the line -- but overall I'm happy with the offseason now.

[mth123]

Pretty much the same as they are now, IMO. Some (Spring Fields, for example) think Cincinnati has an offense that is the worst in the league, or close to it, and no amount of discussion is going to change his mind.

Some think the offense is slightly below average now, but may become average to above with a couple moves (this one and a LF FA), a big year by Bruce, and health. (This is my opinion, BTW.)

Others (like mth) think the offense need be balanced by the defense and that Jocketty likely overpaid for a meager offensive punch at the cost of a superior glove in the middle of the infield and that the Red offense needs to come from the corners.

Then there are those that will poo-poo every move made with sarcastic comments about Jocketty being old or asleep and Duh-sty being an idiot and the Reds being sucky because, they'll insist, that's the way it's been for a decade and nothing has changed because... well, they'd know it if it had. Or something like that.

And then there are those that are right... I haven't met any of those yet.

Actually, I like the signing as opposed to doing nothing. Janish is below the level of acceptability on offense and he was really the only SS option on the roster which is a bad move even if you think he can do the job. But, the Reds had an offseason to do better and have lots of depth that doesn't quite fit. I think a deal to fill the hole with a more long term solution should have/could have been pursued. The only reservation I have about this is the concern over Cabrera's defense. If he really has fallen off as much as some say, then that is also below the level acceptability and I'd rather have the defense of Janish than the minor offensive boost of Cabrera. If its an objective competition, its a great move because Cabrera may rebound defensively and really improve the team. My fear is that he'll suck out there defensively and still get run out there every day.

I do think Cabrera upgrades the offense, but the problem on this team is lack of guys to play the roles needed. Upgrading from below replacement level to below average doesn't fix the hole in the middle of the order. If Gomes really signs, he is the best chance to make this offense work. The team needs to forget about trying to steal bases at the top of the order, recognize that Rolen no longer has the pop he had when he was an all star and utilize his on base ability in the 2 hole behind Stubbs or Dickerson (one of whom should be in CF every day while the other is on the bench and not dragging things down by filling a corner spot with such low power output). Votto, Bruce and Gomes could make a nice middle of the order and could at least make the opposition worry a little. That trio is really all the team has to threaten the .900 OPS mark and with so many other problems I think three really heavy hitters in the middle are a requirement for this team to be average. Phillips could help pick up the slack against lefties when Bruce is likely to fall off. That could work. Phillips and Cabrera in the 6 and 7 spots might add a little juice to the bottom of the order that didn't exist before. They could run a little more down there without the fear that they are taking the bat out of Votto's hands (by getting thrown out and removing baserunners or by opening 1B for him to get the IBB).

Traderumor has it right when he says the team is overloaded with guys who should hit 6-8 in the order. Votto is a mid order bat every day. Bruce is against RHP and Phillips and maybe Rolen are against LHP. Dickerson is a top of the order guy vs. RHP and Stubbs hopefully can be though I'd hit him 6th or 7th if the team had better options. Gomes is the guy who could be a mid-order force (and was against both RHP and LHP in 2009) and is a key to making the offense fit together IMO. Cabrera improves things, but doesn't really fix the problem.

Its better today than it was yesterday, but if the team goes with a judy hitter in LF (since there are no power guys up the middle to make up for it) and forces Rolen into a run producing role while relying too much on Phillips against RHP, the offense will struggle no matter how much of an upgrade Cabrera is over Janish. If Cabrera's defense has really declined to the levels suggested by some, then his offense won't make up for it and he'll put undue strain on the young starters. Bailey and Cueto along with Volquez, Chapman , Leake and to a lesser extent Wood and even Maloney are the key to this team contending for a few years.

[fearofpopvol1]

I am good with this as a 1 year deal. I think his bat will be fine for the position and here's to hoping his glove is more career like than last year like.

[TheNext44]

Cabrera is most likely going to be a below average major leaguer next year. The Reds probably feel like they can project his floor better than their in house options though. One just hopes that they're right but they missed pretty badly on the floors of proven guys like Taveras and Gonzo.

I think an optimistic scenario is that Cabrera can be league average over a full season. Worst case scenario really could be a Willy T or Gonzo.

Very accurate analysis, but I think that there is a big difference between Taveras and Gonzo, about a wins worth, plus one provides negative value, while one provides positive value. I could see Cabrera being as bad as Gonzo was last year, but no way as bad as Taveras was.

Anyway, I think what happens at the 17 second and 29 second mark below is the true worst case scenario.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okPgKHMDxIQ

[Vada Pinson Fan]

Pretty much the same as they are now, IMO. Some (Spring Fields, for example) think Cincinnati has an offense that is the worst in the league, or close to it, and no amount of discussion is going to change his mind.

Some think the offense is slightly below average now, but may become average to above with a couple moves (this one and a LF FA), a big year by Bruce, and health. (This is my opinion, BTW.)

Others (like mth) think the offense need be balanced by the defense and that Jocketty likely overpaid for a meager offensive punch at the cost of a superior glove in the middle of the infield and that the Red offense needs to come from the corners.

Then there are those that will poo-poo every move made with sarcastic comments about Jocketty being old or asleep and Duh-sty being an idiot and the Reds being sucky because, they'll insist, that's the way it's been for a decade and nothing has changed because... well, they'd know it if it had. Or something like that.

And then there are those that are right... I haven't met any of those yet.

I was asking in general terms. Not specifically but I understand what you are saying.

To me it comes down to this: Harang (if kept) absolutely has to have a winning season, Bruce has to hit considerably more than his weight, Rolen has to avoid time lost with his troublesome back, Stubbs must continue getting better and keep his main asset (his speed/legs/feet) cause for defenders to come in closer and closer in the infield, the Starting Staff to be a cohesive unit w/o multiple callups for Louisville replacement parts, for the catching duo of Hernandez and Hannigan to hit league average or better for their position, LF to settle out in ST and be a plus from the in-house players competing for the position and finally the remaining players not named AT LEAST go status quo from last year including the bullpenners. Oh and one last thing- hoping for the best from Edinson Volquez come July or August but realistically not expecting it until 2011.

This team, on paper, is better than last year but the real test comes against the NL West where the Reds were absolutely awful.

My prediction for the Reds 2010 record: 86-76. The Lost Decade is OVER!

Thanks Scrap.

[GAC]

Not a bad signing looking at the FA market on SSs. And that is what amazes me - when I look at the list - that he signed a 1 yr deal with the Reds.